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Updated 5 year outlook

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Snake Diggit, Aug 2, 2019.

  1. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    The current ranking is rather meaningless if we think all or some of the current nucleus (+ Alvarez, Whitley and Tucker) can sustain at least 85+ wins through the next 3-4 seasons. That's plenty of time for Luhnow to rebuild, especially considering likely picks for Cole, Springer, and trades (perhaps Greinke?).

    I have utter faith in this front office.
     
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  2. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    I don't see why the number is $190,000,000.00. Luxury tax doesn't hit until $208,000,000- correct? I see no year where the runway looks good for a real chase at a WS where Crane doesn't allow us to bump up against the tax threshold. I could well be wrong, but that's my expectation/hope.
     
  3. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I agree, my assumption is they will want to leave room to add at each deadline and/or fill in for busts/injuries.
     
  4. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I have faith too, it’s just fun/interesting to me to try to figure out how they’re going to do it and how hard it’ll be. I suppose the real question is this: is it realistic/possible for a mid-market team to keep their competitive window open indefinitely, no matter how good their GM is?
     
  5. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    If Springer enters free agency with back to back 5+ fWAR seasons, I think $125M/5yrs is his floor and $150M+ would be in range, but if he drops off at all it could be devastating for his free agency and knock him down to a 1 year make good or a moderate 3 year deal. For this exercise I chose to estimate conservatively (from Houston’s standpoint) what it would cost to keep Springer.
     
  6. Gorilladunks

    Gorilladunks Member

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    2021:
    C: same as 2020; 1.5 war, $6.5M
    IF: TBD, Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Diaz, TBD; 17 war, $61.5M
    OF: Tucker, Springer, Alvarez, Straw, TBD; 13 war, $30M
    Total position players: 31.5 war, $97.9M
    SP: Verlander, Greinke, Whitley, McCullers, TBD; 15 war, $63M
    RP: Valdez, Urquidy, TBD, Biagini, Devenski, James, TBD, Pressly, Osuna; 8.5 war, $29.2M
    Total pitchers: 23.5 war, $92.1M
    Total 2021: 55 war, $190M



    Explain to me how you are going to be tearing it down with that roster even you posted? Your assumption being tucker and whitley not working out so we burn it to the ground with this much talent?
     
  7. Gorilladunks

    Gorilladunks Member

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    At springers age the next contract is all about the years. If he took a 3-4 year deal he isnt going to take reasonable annual amount. He isnt going to want to hit FA again at age 34-35 when he still can play but teams will be weary or signing him. He is going to want security. I could see him taking a more reasonable annual amount only if you lock him up for 5-6 years if one of them is buying out his arb year
     
  8. CheezeyBoy22

    CheezeyBoy22 Contributing Member

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    Love all the posts and etc..

    At the end of the day, winning the World Series in 2019 will have a huge impact on this team financially for 2020. Based on the Crane's comments to the media and the recent moves, they are betting that Houston will wear the crown. I hope everything falls into place. For me, I'm just excited for 2019 and I'm not trying to think about 2020.
     
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  9. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    Realistic? Probably not. Possible? Yeah, I'd say it's possible.
    What does it realistically take to be a legit WS contender type? My guess is outscore your opponents by ~100-150 runs a year- that's probably, back of the envelope math, a team that could win a WS without people really blinking an eye or being shocked one way or another.

    How do you get there, to that kind of differential? Above average pitching and above average hitting, or great hitting or pitching and average on the other side.

    What does it take to get to above average in either pitching or hitting? 1 or 2 elite bats or arms, 3 or 4 good bats or arms, and 3 or 4 average bats or arms.

    We have elite bats under club control thru what- 2026? 2027 if Tucker and Whitley hit? So, that takes care of the hardest piece to find.

    With the way we develop and coach up our talent and identify players I don't sweat the idea of finding 3 or 4 good bats and arms each. Also, I just don't see this FO getting stuck with below replacement spots on the roster.

    You said indefinitely so that means that we have another 5 or 6 years to find someone else elite to be under team control past Alvarez time. we've got plenty of guys on the roster and will have money to spend- maybe it's Bregman into 2030, or Correa (less likely) but they still might be really good. More likely it's someone we don't know about right now or Tucker.

    I'm just not worried. We will need to keep pumping out 2 and 3 war guys somewhat regularly (1 or 2 a year) cheaply, and make shrew Miley and Brantley type decisions on the open market once or twice a year. They won't all hit, but if payroll is going to be top 10 then yeah, the window can stay open for a long time with just a couple hits, or a little better than average luck.

    That doesn't mean you don't end up with the year where everything breaks against you, but yeah, I'm not wound up about the idea of not being able to get it done for the foreseeable future.
     
  10. Nook

    Nook Member

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    FWIW The Astros have at least had discussions and kicked the tires on a Springer extension. They mostly have been looking at 2-3 year deals and Springer's people want a 6 year deal. The market for someone like Springer isn't what it was even a handful of years ago. If you are an outfielder you better be a really special bat and you better be younger. Springer can play center which is valuable, but I am not sure he is going to in 2,3 or 4 years from now.

    A 3/70 deal is fair and is likely something the Astros would consider, but probably not at this point. They are going to need to see what pitching they have in the system that will not cost them an arm and a leg long term. Someone like Whitley coming up next year and pitching well very well may be the difference between Springer being an Astro long term or not.
     
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  11. Nook

    Nook Member

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    There is no real question that the Astros will try to trade Reddick. The Astros tried to trade him this winter but teams wanted too many prospects to take on the salary, so a compromise was made an a starting pitcher didn't comeback.

    Crane will go up to the tax line, which is around 206 million the last I checked. My guess is they dip down to around 200 million and keep some for the deadline.

    A number of players will not be back, and some of the more expensive or replaceable will be gone. Marisnick, Reddick, Devo and Peacock all could be dealt. From the free agents, Chirinos, Maldonado, Smith, Miley, Rondon and Harris could be gone.

    Straw can replace Marisnick.... Tucker can replace Reddick..... the Astros will likely sign a cheap catcher..... Miley likely costs too much... we know Cole is gone....... in the bullpen we have some arms that need to be called up and given a shot as well.... Harris may be too expensive.
     
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  12. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    I'd really hate to do a 3/70 deal. I'm cool with 6/100 (prefer 5/90- that seems like the number to me) but if he want's 6 that's fair (we will be paying for his decline) and lets us offset money now since it's the AAV that counts for cap purposes.
     
  13. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    Agreed completely with everything you wrote. And the thing is (other than Miley moving on) everything you are talking about in the bullpen and Straw for Jake and Tucker for Reddick, is really low hanging fruit where it's easy to imagine not only getting younger but also getting cheaper at the same time- which is very nice.

    MM seems like a layup to come back. I'm not sure I'd want to bring Chirinos back (someday he's going to fall off a cliff and a 36 year old catcher it's likely someday will be tomorrow) but I'm ok with Stubbs and MM and seeing what happens at the deadline and if any of the catchers in the system flash.

    I don't see any reason to move on from Peacock- he's my 7th inning guy next year. Devo seems too cheap to move on from. Maybe James is the 7th inning guy. Maybe he's the 5th starter.

    There's a lot of question marks but there's a lot of answers written in pen too, that are really really good. **** would have to really go sideways for me not to expect this team to win 100 again next year. Hell, it really went sideways in a lot of ways this year and we are looking at setting the franchise win mark again. A good outcome for next year brings 110 wins realistically into view.

    We'll see.

    I'm excited about it and love to bounce stuff like this around and see other people's thoughts.
     
  14. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Doesn’t make sense to trade Marisnick, Devo, or Peacock unless teams offer good prospects to restock the farm; each of those guys has surplus value and they won’t make more than $15M combined.

    Reddick and Brantley are the 2 guys I would shop, hoping a contender with money is willing to take on 75% of Reddick’s deal and 100% of Brantley’s. That would clear enough payroll to add catching and relief help and have money for the deadline.
     
  15. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Noooooooo [/Darth Vader meme]
     
  16. Major

    Major Member

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    Out of curiosity, why do people think teams are going to want to pay much of Reddick's salary? No one wanted him after last year's sub-par season, and this year he's sub-par again in an even more inflated offensive year. Other contenders aren't likely to want to pay for Reddick for the same reasons the Astros don't: there's better places to use that money than a low 0.700's OPS outfielder.
     
  17. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    I think he meant as a package. Like Brantley and Reddick as one stop shopping. 40 million of contract on expirings- 4 or 5 war- we will eat $5,000,000. It’s not unreasonable.
     
  18. The Hunted

    The Hunted Member

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    Why yall trying to get rid of Brantley? He's making reasonable money. Who replaces him?
     
  19. Jeremy Williams

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    I think we are missing a key aspect that threatens to dismiss the tear down model from any Astros future of possibilities.

    Luhnow and company have the tools to continually find value and add depth through international prospects, the amateur draft, trades, etc. Just look at St. Louis under Luhnow for comparison. While they had to say goodbye to players like Pujols eventually, they continually churned out competitive teams, spurning the system that preaches rebuild.
     
  20. Rockets FTW

    Rockets FTW Member
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    This thread is a doozy. It’ll probably go the opposite just gauging some of the threads from the past. Y’all remember when J.T Realmuto was a must have and can’t miss?

    However it pans out, other teams have the same dilemmas and some of the big market teams (who are already treading deep water) are going to run into those as well. Also, can anyone really foresee any of the AL West teams overtaking the division?

    I can’t. I also can’t think of another team in 2023/24 with a Bregman/Springer (retires an Astro prolly)/Air Yordan/Altuve/etc. with 2-3 years of other prospects.

    It’ll be fine. Enjoy the run and stop stressing
     
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