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Updated 5 year outlook

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Snake Diggit, Aug 2, 2019.

  1. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    Yep. And that won’t be this crew.
    I’d posit, though, that we are they with extreme tank in 10 places at once. There’s no value in it and with everyone else doing that you can zig while the rest of the league says and win 85 and have a lotto ticket pretty easily.
    I think we saw that at this years deadline with the head scratching moves.
     
  2. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member
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    I'll admit that I don't follow the Astros as much as the Rockets but I don't see why Cole would want to leave this team if he was offered a deal both sides can live with. Money talks but what I see from Cole is that he genuinely loves being on this team, even moreso after the Greinke trade. I think he understands what kind of opportunity he and this team has in terms of historical success. The next few years with him, Verlander, Greinke (with Whitley, McCullers, Sanchez, etc.) along with the monster offense we have...a couple of WS rings and more productive years like the past two for Cole could eventually put him right there for the HOF.
     
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  3. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I think the issue with the head scratching moves at the deadline is that teams are tired of losing. Rebuilding teams are being starved by the sheer number of rebuilding teams, that great teams aren't helping them out as much with prospect overpays, and the great teams aren't fading as quick. I think teams are frustrated with losing and long rebuilds, and are making desperate moves to give them their best shot.
     
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  4. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Astros have a lot of players getting big raises lately. It appears the Astros have chosen Altuve, Bregman, and Verlander. I don't think there is a deal Cole would accept that Astros could live with at the same time Astros are living with Altuve, Bregman, and Verlander deals. If Astros keep Cole, that would be awesome.
     
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  5. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member
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    Do you think there's any chance that Luhnow would rather re-sign Cole and sacrifice one of his bats (like, Correa who's due for a raise soon) to keep some semblance of financial flexibility? Or do we go the "In Luhnow/Strom we trust" and let Cole walk, have a rotation of Verlander, Greinke, Sanchez, McCullers and wait for the right time to poach another he-was-good-but-he's-given-us-inconsistent-performance pitcher like what they did with Cole?
     
  6. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast
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    This.

    If the Luhnow lets the Astros get to a point in the foreseeable future where another blow-it-up situation makes sense, he won't be the one doing the rebuilding.
     
  7. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Astros have a team right now that they can't afford if they had to pay free agent prices. Altuve is only bat making anything close to what Cole will make. I doubt Astros sacrifice a bat as bats have a lot less injury risk than pitchers.

    Edit: Having a rotation with Verlander and Greinke isn't about "In Luhnow/Strom we trust". This is more in Astros medical staff we trust for next two and half seasons.
     
    #47 Joe Joe, Aug 5, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2019
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  8. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    I don't know what, if anything, would trigger a tear down - but given this front office's track record, I don't think they would have any hesitation to tear it down if it was the proper course.
     
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  9. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Houston now has the 2nd worst farm in the division.

    Org # of 55+ grade prospects/#of 50 grade prospects:

    Astros 2/1
    Angels 1/3
    As 3/5
    Mariners 5/3
    Rangers 3/13

    Once Whitley and Tucker graduate, Houston’s farm is likely to be ranked in the bottom 5 in the league.
     
  10. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Houston Farm System has a problem with graduating people to the majors, while other AL West teams are stocked up with toolsy guys that haven't hit upper level minors pitching (Adell excluded, and an oversimplification). I expect there will be a big drop in overall talent next year shown in rankings, but that it should bounce back quickly as Astros have a lot of lower level guys.

    Edit: I'm probably a little over critical of Angel, Ranger, and Mariner farms as I'm a little leery of boom-bust type prospects that they've seemed to have had lately. I've not looked at their systems since beginning of the year so maybe they've changed.
     
    #50 Joe Joe, Aug 5, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2019
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  11. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Just like I had hoped for at the outset of this season, there’s always a chance the 2nd/3rd tier guys make the leap. This year, Beer was really the only prospect to make good. I’m a little surprised Toro hasn’t gotten more hype. But all the other potential Top 100 guys (Ivey, Abreu, Nova, Dawson, Matijevic, Arauz, McKenna, Solomon, Schroeder, Santana, and Perez) failed to raise their stock. A few of those guys (Abreu, Ivey, Nova) will be in the same position next season, joined by folks added to the farm this season (Lee, Barber, Brewer) and guys who just got on the radar this season (Conine, Donato, Paredes, Torres, Garcia, Rivera, Bellozo, Pena).
     
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  12. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Same here. I'm still not too hyped for him, but he's done enough not to be completely ignored.
     
  13. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    I also have utmost confidence that if there ever is a tear down, the Astros front office likely knows other team's prospects better than those teams know them.

    Prior to the Verlander trade, I felt a tear-down was more in this front office's wheelhouse than a "load the boat/buildup" would have been. After Verlander/Cole/Greinke trades, safe to say they can hang in any scenario.
     
  14. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Assuming they can sustain $190M/year in payroll, it is completely feasible for them to keep Springer and Correa, assuming both players are willing to sign “reasonable” superstar contracts; something like $150M/6yrs for Springer and $300M/10yrs for Correa. Regardless, next season currently represents the real pressure point related to payroll. The more I look at it the more I think Reddick and at least one other significant salary is likely to be traded this offseason (my guess would be Brantley, Gurriel, Peacock, or Osuna). That gets payroll down to the $190 range without damaging the win projection much.

    Aa I said initially, 2021-2024 relies on Tucker/Whitley/Alvarez (or some other unexpected prospects) developing into stars, but the money should be there to extend Springer and Correa, and replace Greinke/Verlander (although probably not both at $20M+/yr contracts).

    But safe to say Houston needs a 2-3 year stretch where the quality of prospects they draft/sign are greater than the one who bust/graduate/get traded, otherwise their farm is going to put them in a place where they can’t fill unexpected needs at the deadline and can’t replace complementary players who get expensive.
     
  15. Gorilladunks

    Gorilladunks Member

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    They arent tearing anything down in 2021. Theyll still have altuve, bregman, alvarez, verlander, greinke. They arent going to tear it all down. Quit playing mlb the show fantasy gm.
     
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  16. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Cool post guy
     
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  17. Nook

    Nook Member

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    I don't doubt that the ranking will be bottom 5, but I do not believe it will be for long and I do not believe that the total production will be in the bottom 5.

    The Astros have a lot of prospects that will not be in the Hall of Fame or be a 5 time All Star, but will be useful and productive big leaguers.

    Also the Astros under Luhnow are unique..... when the Astros tasted success, they didn't stick to their way of doing things or stick with the same people........ they have continued to make changes in who makes decisions in the organization and even how the organization's power is structured, how players are taught and scouted. That likely means the Astros don't see everyone catch up to them.

    Also, the Astros are not afraid to spend money on scouting, development or on players to add to their system.... the system will have ups and downs, but it isn't likely to be worse than above average very long. Even the last year or two we have seen players like Seth Beer come in and be central to a trade for a controllable ace pitcher. Players like Josh James and Myles Straw develop when they were never prospects.
     
  18. Nook

    Nook Member

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    He isn't someone with blazing speed, or 70/80 power........ he doesn't hit 330... So there is no single tool that really stands out, and he is 22 years old and not 19 years old in AAA.

    He has made consistent and methodical advancement through the Astros system and the areas he has improved in (working the count, pitch recognition and defense) are not the type of things that get a lot of attention.

    However, he does enough things well that he very well could be a 10-15 year big leaguer that is good but not great.
     
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  19. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Slow day at the office. Here’s the projections for $ and fWAR for the 26 man roster thru 2023:

    2020:
    C: TBD, Stubbs; 2 fWAR, $6.5M
    IF: Gurriel, Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Diaz, TBD; 16.5 fWAR, $62.2M
    OF: Tucker, Springer, Alvarez, Straw, Marisnick; 13.5 fWAR, $27.1M
    Total position players: 32 war, $95.7M
    SP: Verlander, Greinke, McCullers, Sanchez, Peacock 15 war, $70.2M
    RP: Valdez, Urquidy, Biagini, Devenski, James, TBD, Pressly, Osuna 8.5 war, $24.2M
    Total pitchers: 23.5 war, $94.3M
    Total 2020: 55.5 war, $190M

    2021:
    C: same as 2020; 1.5 war, $6.5M
    IF: TBD, Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Diaz, TBD; 17 war, $61.5M
    OF: Tucker, Springer, Alvarez, Straw, TBD; 13 war, $30M
    Total position players: 31.5 war, $97.9M
    SP: Verlander, Greinke, Whitley, McCullers, TBD; 15 war, $63M
    RP: Valdez, Urquidy, TBD, Biagini, Devenski, James, TBD, Pressly, Osuna; 8.5 war, $29.2M
    Total pitchers: 23.5 war, $92.1M
    Total 2021: 55 war, $190M

    2022:
    C: same as 2021; 1 war, $6.5M
    IF: same as 2021; 17 war, $78.7M
    OF: same as 2021; 13 war, $27.4M
    Total position players: 31 war, $112.5M
    SP: Whitley, 2 TBD prospects, 2 TBD premium free agents; 12.5 war, $57.7M
    RP: Valdez, Urquidy, Biagini, Pressly, James, 3 TBD prospects; 7.5 war, $20.4M
    Total pitching: 20 war, $78.1M
    Total 2022: 51 war, $190M

    2023:
    C: Lee, Stubbs; 1.5 war, $2.5M
    IF: TBD, Altuve, Correa, Bregman, TBD, TBD; 17 war, $91.3M
    OF: same as 2022; 13 war, $37.2M
    Total position players: 31.5 war, $131.1M
    SP: same as 2022; 11.5 war, $46.5M
    RP: Valdez, Urquidy, James, 5 TBD; 8.5 war, $16.4M
    Total pitching 20 war, $62.9M
    Total 2023: 51.5 war, $190M
     
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  20. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    I don't think there's *any* way Springer, in his age-31 season, is going to get 6/$150. Heyward signed for 8/184 - but he was 26 and most view it as a bad contract.

    Springer will likely get $15-18 next year via arbitration. I wonder if the Astros can buy out his final year with a 3/70(ish) or 4/90(ish) kind of deal?
     
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