If you're saying "Do you prefer 100% chance of winning, or revising downward from 100% by changing a decision?", then I have no choices--that's a pointless endeavor. In that scenario, everyone prefers 100% winning. The question people are hopefully answering is, in the moment, with the information available, what would you have done and why? Even with the advantage of knowing how good Verlander's stuff would be that day (which Hinch of course didn't have at the time), I'd still answer the same as my thought in the moment--I'd have preferred he went to someone else (preference to Musgrove if Verlander was going to be the bridge to Giles regardless) given that he was coming in mid-inning with runners on. If Musgrove (or Harris) gave up the same HR, then go to Verlander with the bases empty and (in theory) the rest plays out the same. Of course, if the RP loaded the bases or something, you're in a worse scenario--that's the potential downside.
I would have preferred if he were going to use Verlander that he'd come in at the start of an inning and not in the middle of an inning but I'm thankful it worked out. Benintendi had his number and I think we all saw that in game one. You always take the victory over the unknown, of course.
In what way is putting the best and most experienced pitcher you have in the game to pitch 3 innings a statistically poor move?
Anyone would be better of coming in at the beginning of an inning. But would you rather have a Will Harris facing that situation after being shaky the last couple of months (and in game 1), or the guy who's been the best pitcher in baseball for a month? I'd take the latter every day. It's not like Verlander has no experience pitching with a man on first. What on earth? Benintendi in game 1 vs Verlander had a Strikeout, Popup, and grounded into a double play. Meanwhile, he actually got a hit off Harris in that game.
This is the way the whole team felt, I believe it helped the players relax and settle down. “Verlander just makes everyone around him better,’’ McCann said. “It’s his preparation, his work ethic, his intensity. He does so many things that you look up to. We are so glad he is on this team.’’ “He is one of the best postseason players to ever play the game,” McCann said. “One of the best players to ever play the game. When the moment’s at its biggest that guy right there, his heartbeat slows down.’’ "When we saw Verlander run to the 'pen we said, 'Our horse is on the mound, we need to win this game,'" said Houston third baseman Alex Bregman, who homered off Sale to tie it in the eighth before Josh Reddick's single gave the Astros the lead. "That's kind of the whole energy that he's brought since we brought him over here," Bregman said of Verlander, the former AL MVP and Cy Young winner who was acquired from Detroit for the playoff run. "He's brought an energy with him that, 'Hey, when he's out there, we're going to win.'" The whole damn team wanted Verlander out there and AJ Hinch couldn't b**** out. He needs to let his team know they are in the game to win the damn game. You could tell the team responded to Verlander settling down in those innings and followed a guy that they truly believe in. Verlander is a leader that this team believes in and one of our best bullets. A good manager is not going to ignore that.
I do think there is an emotional element to managing. sometimes you need to let the team know that you guys aren't shying away from a fight. You need to let them know that you have balls and you are in it to win it. I think hinch knows his locker room pretty well and guys like bregman seemed to respond to it. (his quotes are in my post above) "The two big boys, Sale and Verlander, both get into the game. Everybody did well," Houston manager A.J. Hinch said. "Nobody really wanted to concede the game."
Verlander has not been a reliever in the major leagues ever. He has never come in with runners on base. That is the issue for me. Everything worked out, ultimately, but to say this was a slam dunk decision is untenable.
Sure, but he has a ton of MLB experience and has pitched in plenty of critical situations. It's no different than if he had came into a fresh inning and gave up a single. Will Harris has lots more experience coming in as a reliever or mid-inning, but he's also struggled in key situations and wasn't good just a few days earlier. I'll always take the better pitcher over the guy with experience at one particular situation. If we trust him to come in as a reliever despite having never done it, why not trust him to come in as a reliever with 1-on, and 1-out?
Look, Verlander gave up a two run homer right away. It clearly did matter. He righted the ship and we are all happy, but pitching Harris there does not preclude bringing in Verlander later.
Verlander is just the better pitcher provided he has enough time to warm up and has enough rest. However, Harris has been good in high leverage situations this year overall. He has improved regarding pitching in high leverage versus low/normal leverage situations each year over the last 4 years according to Fangraphs's Clutch stat. Only reason Verlander went in was that Verlander is just a better pitcher and was ready. Harris would have gone in if Verlander wasn't ready. Harris is a very good reliever and I don't buy any arguments that suggests Hinch doesn't trust Harris in key situations. He just trusts putting in the best guy available in the most crucial situation over other good, but trustworthy guys.
And what happens if Harris comes in and gives up 3 runs, while Verlander sits in the bullpen? I don't think you evaluate decisions based on outcomes, because we don't know what the alternative outcome would have been, so we have no comparison point. You can't just assume Harris would have come in and given up nothing. At the end of the day, he put in the best pitcher on the team in a high-leverage situation. I don't see any problem with that.
It didn't work though. The logic that it was a good move to bring in Verlander simply bc the offense bailed him out against two of the best pitchers in baseball in the 8th and 9th innings is bizarre. Either way I'm over it, and if you read my previous post I even said I've started to come around to the decision. I'm not sure I would have done it. It seemed desperate, but we won the game in the end. Doesn't mean Hinch was some GENIUS to bring in his best starter in the middle of an inning like that for his for relief appearance in his entire career. [That specific move DID NOT WORK] It was a total team effort but offense saved us that game.
it works both ways. not just the bats. pitching was very much part of the W. saying it just did not work is pretty stupid
I literally said it was a "total team effort but the offense saved us" (in the 8th and 9th against two of the best pitchers in the game). Please learn to read before posting next time. And saying it worked is not just stupid, its completely moronic. THAT ONE SPECIFIC MOVE DID NOT WORK BC WE GAVE UP THE LEAD. PERIOD. THATS ALL FOLKS. I'm done with this convo. We won, and I'm happy.
To me, this is the crux of the argument. It's the perception of the moment that matters. This was a crucial part of the game where Hinch saw the heart of the lineup coming up, and he made a decision to go with the best guy he's got. If it doesn't work out, at least you never have to second guess yourself about whether you had your team in the best position to succeed. We've all seen how Harris has performed under pressure in the post-season, and he's done nothing to assuage any fears in his reliability. Rolling with Verlander was 100% the right decision in the moment, and it has nothing to do with the results.
ok. if you specifically post in all caps IT DID NOT WORK it obviously means you feel pretty strongly about something. so its actually not me who's the moron here. look in the mirror every once and awhile
Again, don't care to argue with you. Think whatever you want. My original response was to joeson332 so maybe just hop off the wood.
Dude are you still attacking people on this? You seriously are the biggest d bag on CF. He is saying the same thing I said, the specific move that mathrocker asked about did not Work.
