The NBA Offseason List - article forecasting Rox or the Spurs in the finals (charts/stats incl)

doesn't wages of wins also have the Pistons finishing 2nd in the east?

 

Wages of Wins has us in the finals? Nice jinx.

 

Somewhat troubling that this model doesn't seem to predict us very well.

If I am reading this right, last year our actual wins was far less than the model predicted (5 wins less) which is a deviation larger than most other teams.

Also, 59 - 73 wins prediction, that seems overly optimistic.

 

I don't know what the **** any of this means.

 

The 60 wins says "wins produced"... not "wins projected".

I don't know what the **** "wins produced" means.

 

Can you explain this stuff OP to give it some context for those of us who are just looking at a bunch of meaningless numbers?

 

That should say 50 wins. I can't edit and I typed it wrong.

 

I believe our actual wins were less than the 'wins produced.' Morey has been on record saying similar in that our record was on the low end of what a team that outscores its opponents by as much as we did over the course of the season should theoretically win.

 

I understand this article very well, but I am going out to dinner. I will explain it when I get back if anyone is interested.

 

Dinner at 3:30, how old are you?

 

Glad I'm not the only one lol

 

All you have to know is that they project Dallas(44.3) and Utah(43.6) to have the 6th and 7th most wins(projected wins nominal) in the west.

 

Also, Philly at 13th in league. They seem headed for one of the worst records in the league.

 

Okay, I've gone back and read more carefully instead of just skimming it like I did earlier.

And I have to say, the "wins produced" statistic has been pretty dead on. He's within 5 wins for every team, and is within only 2 or so wins for most teams.

That seems to be amazingly accurate if I am understanding this article correctly.

If I understand this correctly, he's predicting 57 wins if you use last year's numbers.

But considering age and player's performance over the last 3 years he predicts anywhere between 59.6 to 72.8 wins for the Rockets next year. 59 wins if you take into account their worst numbers in the past 3 years. 72 wins if you take into account their best. The "nominal" of the last 3 years is 67.3 wins

He predicts Miami will make the Finals in the East, and either the Rockets or Spurs make it in the West.


So basically, the Rockets' win projections are off the charts compared to any other team. They next closest team is projected to have about 7 wins less than the Rockets.

This means the Rockets next year could either have a 60 win season (which is incredible), to having about 73 wins and being one of the best teams in NBA history.

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong.

 

Based on the comments, it seems as if the writer is only giving Jones 3 minutes per game, Asik 23 minutes per game, Beverley getting more minutes than Lin, and Brewer 25 minutes per game.


Based on that, the projected wins may be skewed upward in Houston's favor, because the above is unlikely to happen.

 

I am on the East coast and had a 5:30 reservation across a very busy city.

How Wages of Wins evaluates team wins before the season:

Every player is ranked by a very complex formula: http://wagesofwins.com/how-to-calculate-wins-produced/ yielding a WP (Wins Produced) for every player in the league: http://www.thenbageek.com/players. The numbers are then totaled for every team in the league for their entire roster. No personal input at all is used. However some interesting problems arise. Using the Rockets as an example:

1: The Rockets were projected with their lineup to win 50 games last season, but because no allowance was made for having 11 new players and a play book that was thrown out the window 3 days before the season started, the Rockets only produced 45 wins.

2: The Projected Wins Using Actual columns sums up the expected performance using every players performance over the last 3 seasons; worst, average and best of the seasons.

3: WoW projects player performance for the next 3 years given their position, age and developmental progress (positive or negative). Thus the last three columns.

4: The Rockets appear better than they reasonably will be at times given that WoW uses for instance Howard's 2010-2011 season and Asik's 2012-2013 season. There is no "fudging" of numbers for the likelihood of Howard and Asik both getting 30+ minutes a game. Thus the unlikely estimate of 72.8 wins in a season.

I make a mental judgement using either the "Last years #" or the "Average last three" column when deciding how many wins I think a team will win next season.

Basically these numbers are a purely analytical approach to calculating wins. An extra layer of interpretation needs to be applied. That is why Hollinger has typically been the most accurate forecaster for team wins next season. He starts with numbers somewhat more complex than these and then applies detailed understanding and knowledge to get a better result.

 

How can a team without a freaking power forward be projected to win 67 games???

If we had LMA - sure, I'd buy that. But 67 games in a stacked western conference????

I can see 55-57 wins for this team next year. But I guess he's assuming PB turns into a stellar guard. Otherwise I am not sure how it happens.

 

Interesting that LMA has a 4.7 WP and Asik has 8.7 WP. There actually are stats that support my view of LMA.