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The future of the EU and the UK, post-Brexit

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by MojoMan, Dec 4, 2016.

  1. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Lmao! I didnt know that.
    Was that the original reason talks broke down 2 years ago?
    I can see SinnFeinn now deliberately not opening Stormont so on 21 Octomber they pass into law and also with Grieves amendment it will obstruct Johnson from proroguing the parliament ( if he hasnt been deposed already).

    Lets see how the DUP will manage to change then the laws back if they have already passed!

    Man the DUP are such a cancer. Isnt there another unionist party out there for someone who is pro union but doesnt want to live in the middle ages?
     
  2. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Contributing Member

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    Originally the government fell apart because of a scandal involving renewable fuel subsidies that were mismanaged by the DUP. Sinn Fein left the government in response and the power sharing arrangement collapsed. They then had a new round of elections and the DUP lost a bunch of seats and more importantly the unionist parties don't have a majority anymore (and only have a one seat lead over the nationalist parties). Sinn Fein in particular won several new seats while the DUP lost seats.

    In response, Sinn Fein made new demands to restart the government and those demands included legalizing same sex marriage and the Irish Language Act. As for reversing the new laws from parliament, the DUP ironically will have a weapon that they have used turned against them. Northern Ireland has a version of the filibuster called the petition of concern that the DUP has been using to block legislation such as same sex marriage. If the legalization of same sex marriage and abortion goes through, then Sinn Fein (along with other nationalist and/or centrist parties) can use the petition of concern to block DUP attempts to repeal those things.

    Lastly, to your question about the DUP, yes there are other unionist parties. In fact if you go back to the Good Friday Agreement, the largest unionist party at the time was the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) and the largest nationalist party was the Social Democratic and Labor Party (SDLP). Over time, the more radical parties (DUP and Sinn Fein) have become the largest unionist and nationalist parties. And at the same time, there are new centrist parties like the Alliance and the Greens that have also taken votes as the SDLP and UUP continue to shrink.
     
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  3. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    Gee, I wonder why she lied and threatened the news source for reporting he worked for Cambridge Analytica?

     
  4. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    The EU is getting spooked. They are already announcing a proposal for another extension, for the purpose of finalizing a deal, although the term they would propose remains unspecified.

    Brussels to offer Boris Johnson extension on no-deal Brexit

    Brussels is preparing to offer Boris Johnson a no-deal Brexit extension beyond 31 October in an attempt to help him keep the Conservative party together and provide one more chance to strike an agreement deal. The extra period of EU membership would be used for renegotiation but could be billed to Conservative Brexiters as an opportunity to prepare further for leaving without a deal.

    “It will be described as a technical delay to save Boris from political embarrassment but then we will have time to find an agreement,” said one senior EU diplomat.​

    Blah, blah blah. They will continue to try to undermine the will of the British people to keep them in the EU, by any means necessary. That is what this is.

    Now let's not forget that French President Macron had last been heard insisting that he would not approve an extension without a second referendum or a general election. Here in the US, we refer to this two-sided manipulative game as "good cop, bad cop". They are all actually bad cops, but Macron was pretending to be the good cop, so that this ploy to try to keep the UK in the EU appears to be somewhat begruging, when of course it is nothing of the sort.

    They also continue to insist that the current deal is the only deal. So presumably this means they are offering more time for the UK Parliament to vote on and pass the already thrice rejected deal from Theresa May. Or, they did not say it this time, but it also provides more time for a general election, which would tear the UK's political system apart.

    I find it interesting that they waited until just after the last hustings to make this announcement. Obviously all of the remainers will support it.

    This is really aggravating that they are willing to knowingly cause such harm to the UK by instigating this strife. The voters have voted. It is time for the UK to leave - On October 31 2019.
     
  5. dmoneybangbang

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    Lol. The EU is trying to be the adult in the room....

    At this point the U.K. should be happy the EU is acting responsibly instead of mocking the UKs incompetence.
     
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  6. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Sorry for the late response.
    After reading your comment I read up a little on that.

    So..the fact that Northern Ireland's politics are becoming more and more polarised along the tribal lines, and the language more and more polemic with no intention from either side of compromise hasn't make anyone to stop and think??:rolleyes::rolleyes:
    Hey maybe it's a bad idea if we try to put up a wall, when the situation is already low key a power keg???


    A government's senior civil servant received hundrends of thousands of pounds in compensation for emotional distress..the reason?
    The government office on british soil dared to have the portrait of the Queen of England!

    People may be born and die on british soil, receive a free british public education, enjoy the british public healthcare, have a vote and enjoy all equal rights, but they have under the law (GFA) the right to NOT have a british citizenship but an irish one.

    The situation is one of a kind, and unfortunately I don't see a way that there won't be deaths on the streets after Brexit.
     
  7. malakas

    malakas Member

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    After Boris Johnson is elected tomorrow, it looks like the opposition won't put forward a vote of no confidence so as NOT to bolster his authority.


    If instead they put it forward on September, after he has already failed most of his outlandish promises on "quickly come to terms with the EU on a brand new WA", they will be almost sure to succeed.
    After August the Tories will only have a majority of 3.

    The same time many in the government are going to resign before they get sacked.

    So far the centrists had to pacify and dance on the whim of the Brextremists but now they will become the internal opposition.
    Hammond, Gawke and Steward have pretty much said they will vote against their own party to avoid no deal.


    Also it is laughable how in such a serious national crisis, they can sit on recess and waste one and a half month of precious time so they can get their holidays.
     
  8. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    The timing of all this is going to be interesting. Parliament will leave for vacation until September 3 as soon as the new PM is installed. Then they will be back for about a week during the first part of September. Then they recess again for the rest of September and the first week of October to allow for the annual party conferences. That will leave three weeks until the end of October for Parliament to do whatever it is that they can do.

    If they wait until the last three weeks of October, it is going to be almost impossible for them to stop this, unless they get up the guts to try to repeal Article 50, which does not seem likely. So that week they are back at the beginning of September is looming large. I do not know that they will have much of an opportunity to do anything then, either. But if I was a leader of the Remainers in Parliament, this is the time period I would be focused on trying to make something happen.
     
  9. malakas

    malakas Member

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    It's not difficult to postpone again Brexit as long as there is political will from both sides of the negotiations.
    What is impossible is to do what Borris has said he will do : agree on a new WA without the irish backstop in just 2 weeks.

    The Torries after August will have only a majority of 3. This means only 3 Tory MPs will have to vote against him in a vote of no confidence and that's the end of Boris Johnson premiership.

    In parliamentary polities such as this, the government can fall from one day to the next if their majority is so thin.

    That's why Boris has been threatening with proroguing the parliament to get a no deal Brexit and also keep his party on power.
    However the new NI amendment makes it impossible to close the parliament completely.

    The parliament is now obliged, no matter what, to sit every two weeks, with the excuse "to discuss if the NI parliament will open" in which day they are sure to completely oust the government if Boris dares to prorogue.


    You have to understand, that proroguing the parliament to get through what the government wants, is completely undemocratic in essence and would \face suing and opposing from the courts of law.
    If they had a proper constitution, any other country would also find it uncostitutional, but they can only say it is uncostitutional in essence.
     
  10. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Presumably the Johnson government will have to bring up a bill for a vote in order for there to be something for another extension request to be attached to. Which is not expected to happen. So, unless John Bercow intervenes with some massive shenanigans, it is going to be down to a no-confidence vote. But even if there is a no-confidence vote, that will not stop the October 31 deadline from passing. If that deadline passes without the UK Parliament intervening to somehow stop it before hand, then the UK is out on October 31.

    So, they really need to get this no-confidence vote passed against Johnson in early September at the latest, or it is likely to be too late.

    However, as it turns out, the Labour party does not really want a general election right now, because they are in possibly even worse shape than the
    Tories, now that Jeremy Corbyn has effectively come out and aligned the Labour party with a second referendum and with Remain. The Labour party will be torn apart in a general election right now and they know it. This was after they already were torn apart by the SNP in the last general election.

    It is not at all clear that a no-confidence motion will be effectively raised or passed. Of course we will have to wait and see. But if they wait until October after the party conferences to try this, it will almost certainly be too late.
     
  11. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    So there has been a bit of a delay while the Tories go through the process of changing Prime Ministers. Now that Boris Johnson has been chosen, here is the process for the handover tomorrow:

    12pm: Theresa May faces her final Prime Minister’s Questions in the House of Commons.

    1pm: Philip Hammond officially resigns as Chancellor to Mrs May and we can expect to see other soft Brexit supporters resigning around here too (assuming Mr Johnson wins).

    2pm: New PM will meet with ministers in his new Commons office who he intends to sack.

    3pm: Theresa May visits the Queen at Buckingham Palace and officially resigns as Prime Minister.

    4pm: New PM visits the Queen at Buckingham Palace and is invited to form a Government.

    5pm: New PM makes his first speech outside Number 10. He enters the building for the first time as Prime Minister.

    Evening: New PM makes senior Cabinet appointments and holds meetings with senior civil servants.

    He is given the nuclear codes and is updated on matters of national security.

    He’ll write his “letters of last resort” to commanders of Trident-carrying submarines with instructions for what to do in the event of Britain and its Government being wiped out by a nuclear attack.

    He’ll take congratulatory phone calls from world leaders.​

    Surely President Trump will be among the first to call to congratulate the new British Prime Minister. And then hopefully he will be able to get Brexit finished without any further delays or diversions.
     
  12. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    One of the most prominent anti-Brexit leaders in the EU Parliament, Guy Verhofstadt, tweets a rather rough response to Boris Johnson's elevation and what the leaders of the EU seem to think that means for the EU:



    He does not appear to be very pleased by this development. The EU's efforts to force the UK to remain in the the EU are not going according to these people's plans, that is for certain, as the promotion of Boris Johnson represents the UK's intention to continue not to comply with the EU's demands and expectations on this question.
     
  13. dmoneybangbang

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    I think the EU is tired of Brexiters’ incompetence.

    Running on emotion is easy, legislating emotion is tough.
     
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  14. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    Excellent insight into the Trump congratulations call -- I expect Boris to have Brexit wrapped up by the elections.
     
  15. malakas

    malakas Member

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    No.
    After a prime minister fails to win a confidence vote there is a 14 days period where the opposition can try to form a coalition to get the majority and form a government.
    There are already whispers and rumours of a cross party national government with anti no deal Tory MPs and the other parties.

    So if Johnson loses the confidence vote in September if he doesnt ask for an extension in the 14 days period, that will pressure the moderate Tories to cooperate with Labour to avoid no deal and form a short lived new government to extend the deadline. And then ask for elections.

    Btw I was wrong. Johnson's majority after August will be 2 not 3.

    Poor Johnson he has been dealt a horrible hand, much worse than what May did back then.
    He isnt a legitimate PM since he didnt win a real national election.
    With only 2 majority his hands will be tied.
     
  16. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    You do realize that the government will be formed along party lines, right? What you are describing would be absolutely unprecedented. It would be a minority government - across party lines - picking and choosing members from the different parties based on where they stand on the Brexit issue.

    That is not how a government is formed.

    Now that does not mean that Johnson could not be brought down by a no confidence vote. I do not expect that will happen, but it certainly could happen. What is not going to happen in the case of a successful no-confidence motion is what you have described - a new government not formed based on parties committed to supporting an agenda and a Prime Minister, but rather based on members across party lines based on those members support for a single issue.

    Instead, what would happen is that they will quickly reach a stale-mate and a general election will have to be called. But if they do not get this going early in September, there will not be time to complete that process prior to the UK exiting the EU on October 31.

    I will say that how this is handled could become very interesting.
     
  17. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    Gold.
     
  18. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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  19. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Its not unprecedented at all. It's called a national unity government and it has happened many many times at least in Europe.
    MPs usually at the time of what is seen as national crisis, will participate even if their party doesn't.

    Of course after that the party usually erases them from their list and takes away their membership.

    This is how a parliamentary democracy works.

    Heck right now in my country the new governent just elected two weeks ago, made an MP from the opposition as a senior minister.
    And there is no crisis. The MP was immediately erased from his party list but it doesn't matter since he has already been elected.

    In this UK case suspicious moves have been done by Grieve, Cooper, Gawke, Duncan, Clarke and Stewart to say a few.
    Plenty more will step up to avoid no deal by default.
    Many newspapers are mentioning cross party cooperations, secret meetings and so on.

    This is likely ONLY if Johson after being deposed doesn't ask for extension of the 31 Octomber deadline. If he does there is no need and they will have normal national elections.


    Also there is no way that Johson survives a no confidence vote, in September unless he agrees to May's deal. Because there will not be another withdrawal agreement.
     
  20. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    And when was the last time they had a "national unity government" in the UK?

    This is a pipe dream.
     
    #1500 MojoMan, Jul 23, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2019

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