The future of the EU and the UK, post-Brexit

The UK's ambassador to the United States is apparently on borrowed time, as the new British Prime Minister is expected to recall Ambassador Sir Kim Darroch once he gets situated.

Britain's new prime minister will pull Ambassador Kim Darroch from Washington

"We don't really believe this administration is going to become substantially more normal; less dysfunctional; less unpredictable; less faction riven; less diplomatically clumsy and inept."

The publication of those words will likely end Sir Kim Darroch's tenure as Britain's ambassador to the United States. It comes from one of numerous diplomatic cables leaked to the Daily Mail, and the words make Darroch's position untenable.

Not that this is exactly fair to Darroch. Like all British ambassadors, he expected his words to be read only by top officials in London. And London expects its ambassadors to deliver candid cables that can inform more effective policy. But the damage is done.

Upon entering office later this month, Britain's new prime minister will likely replace Darroch.​

With this disclosure, it makes less sense for the UK to try to keep him in this role than it does for the US to object. Clearly this is an embarrassment.

All that being said, I have mixed feelings about this. First, Derroch's report that was leaked sounds like a bunch of leftist PC talking points, and he should be embarrassed at having nothing more to offer his government than this sort of "Virtue signalling" pap.

Trump can be a bit of an ass at times, but he has shown himself to be politically quite extraordinary, especially on the international stage. This is not to say that all of the other countries are in love with him. On the contrary - it is not his job to have all the other countries of the world giggling with glee at his pattern of capitulations and appeasements. No, that sort of reaction is a pretty clear indicator that a US President is giving away the store, as was clearly the case with Barack Obama.

So Darroch's report that was leaked reflects poorly on Darroch, in my opinion, because it was not very insightful or helpful, but more of a signal that Darroch was on board with the PC perspective preferred by the establishment left press about Trump. What good does it do to have an Ambassador that provides nothing better than this sort of drivel? Might as well just tell the PM to go pick up a copy of the UK Independent and rely on whatever their opinion of Trump is.

On the other hand, I agree with the author of the article above about the Ambassador's presumption that this was a classified communication that would not be made public. He has every right to be perturbed by this turn of events and I hope the UK investigation into this matter discovers who it is that leaked this memo and holds them accountable to the highest extent allowable by the law.

 

Well, President Trump has announced that he will no longer deal with the current UK Ambassador to the US, after the leaked emails were made public. From the BBC:

Trump: 'We won't deal with UK ambassador' after leaked emails​

I guess this is understandable, but I sure wish that we could have just let the UK recall this guy. But the British government has had a few days to do that already. So since they haven't, that has to be on Theresa May. This really is not a very good look for her in her final days as PM.

 

According to Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald, a referendum on Irish unification is likely to happen 'very quickly' if the UK leaves the EU (with no deal).

However, the Irish government's Brexit spokeswoman was not appreciative of these remarks, because she found them to be destabilizing.

Irish Government urged to prepare for border poll

The Sinn Fein president has urged the Irish Government to start preparing for a border poll now as the risk of a disorderly Brexit increases. Mary Lou McDonald said a referendum on Irish unity could happen “very quickly” if the UK crashed out of the EU at the end of October. The Dublin TD warned of an economic border emerging between Northern Ireland and the Republic and called for the state to prepare for constitutional change.

Fianna Fail’s Brexit spokeswoman Lisa Chambers said Sinn Fein’s position on Brexit has been “tempered” and accused the party of using it to advance its political agenda of a border poll. “She said we must be preparing now and I think that is utterly reckless,” Ms Chambers added. “Talking about a border poll when Brexit is just 114 days away only further destabilises the situation we already have, and certainly if we have a Brexit crash, the last thing our Government should be doing is preparing for a border poll.

“It needs to help our small to medium enterprises, our hauliers, because a lot of businesses will be looking to Government for significant support.”​

But she certainly did not rule the possibility out altogether, did she?

 

Jeremy Corbyn has finally slid down the slippery slope on where the Labour Party stands on Brexit. Until now he has insisted that Labour was in favor of Brexit, but would support a second referendum on any deal that was reached.

Apparently, not anymore.

Today Corbyn has announced that the Labour party will support Remain should a second referendum be held. He is also against leaving under any circumstances without a deal with the EU in place. But he and the Labour party are opposed to the deal already negotiated, which Parliament has voted down decisively on three different occasions, and which the EU has consistently insisted will not be reopened or renegotiated under any circumstances.

And now he supports putting any deal, or no deal up for a referendum. So, that pretty much covers the full gamut. Labour now supports a second referendum. And in that referendum, they will campaign to Remain.

Labour will campaign for Remain and against Tory Brexit deal in a second referendum, Jeremy Corbyn confirms

Labour will campaign to remain in the European Union and against any Brexit deal negotiated by the next Conservative prime minister, Jeremy Corbyn has announced.

The Labour leader has written to party members confirming that the party will seek to reverse Brexit unless it wins power and secures its own agreement with Brussels. In that scenario, its position on leaving the European Union will be debated and agreed when its manifesto is drawn up.

In a letter published today, Mr Corbyn said that any future leader should have the “confidence” to put either no-deal or their own agreement to a public vote.​

Of course this is electorally a big problem, as there are a lot of districts that have supported Labour that are passionately in favor of Leaving, with or without a deal. The expectation is that these districts are now likely to be lost to Labour, making their prospects of taking control of Parliament in a general election very difficult indeed.

 

It will be interesting in the years to come to see if North Ireland supports a referendum for reunification with Ireland. Actions like this one certainly make that more likely.

 

Nobody is talking about a wall in North Ireland except you and a number of other Remain supporting rabble-rousers. The answer is not Theresa May's deal, as they actually want to leave the EU.

 

The nominee to replace Jean Claude Junker as President of the EU Commission (the executive branch), Ursula von der Leyen, has made it clear that she hopes that the UK 'Abandons Brexit'.

Ursula von der Leyen, nominee to head EU, 'hopes UK abandons Brexit'

Ursula von der Leyen, the nominee to become the next European Commission chief, has told MEPs she hopes the UK abandons its plans for Brexit. "I still hope you remain," she said, warning the British authorities to "sort its side of things on Brexit".

As part of her pitch on Tuesday, Mrs von der Leyen tackled the thorny issue, calling on British lawmakers to take responsibility for sorting out the UK's departure. She said a divorce deal negotiated by outgoing UK PM Theresa May with EU leaders was "a good one", in her first public comments on Brexit since being nominated.

She warned the two men vying to replace Mrs May as leader, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, that the "tone and attitude" of Brexit was vital for setting out future relations between both sides.​

Presumably she will do everything in her power to try to cause the UK to abandon its commitment to fulfill the verdict of the 2016 referendum to leave the EU.

She also recommended that the new Prime Minister keep a watch on the "tone and attitude" of Brexit, as that would be critical in determining the relationship between the UK and the EU going forward. In fact, that sounds a bit like a threat, doesn't it?

 

Ursula von der Leyen is apparently an 'affirmative action' selection. The EU backroom boys decided they wanted to try to split the top four jobs - Presidents of the Commission (Ursula von der Leyen), Council (Charles Michel) and Parliament (David Sassoli) and also the head of the EU Central Bank (Christine Legarde) - equally between men and women. Legarde was a lock for one job or another. But con der Leyen is a bit of a reach.

In fact, von der Leyen is currently the German Defense Minister, but the general sense is that she has not done a very good job in that role:

She Was Picked to Be the EU’s First Female Figurehead. Her Critics at Home Ask: Why?

Ursula von der Leyen, Germany’s defense minister, suddenly emerged Tuesday as the compromise candidate for the bloc’s top job, which is currently occupied by Jean-Claude Juncker. Now all that lies between her and the presidency of the European Commission—the body that proposes EU laws and represents the EU on the international stage—is the approval of the European Parliament.

But that approval is by no means a sure thing, thanks to von der Leyen’s mixed track record and the process by which she was chosen. Europe’s socialists and greens—and even some of her fellow conservatives—are unlikely to back her, so there’s a chance the process may soon revert to square one. Oh, and her nomination could also bring down the German government.
InternationalEurope

Under her, the ministry broke procurement rules in the way it awarded contracts worth hundreds of millions of euros to outside consultants such as McKinsey; a parliamentary investigation is still underway. The German army and air force’s equipment remains barely fit for purpose, despite her attempts at modernization. Repairs on a naval training ship ballooned from under €10 million ($11.3 million) to €130 million. And, during scandals over sexual harassment and radical right-wingers in the army, she faced calls to resign after saying officers had an “attitude problem,” rather than accepting responsibility herself.​

]Apparently it is not a certainty that von der Leyen will get the support in Parliament that she needs to be confirmed for the position, as these arrangements were determined as part of a back room deal that was not in keeping with the democratic procedures agreed to in advance for how these leaders were supposed to have been chosen.

The European Parliament Will Demand Climate Concessions To Confirm New EU President

But she needs a majority to vote for her in the parliament, and that will require at least three political groups to support her.

There will be trouble for Von der Leyen on the left side of the chamber. The centre-left Socialists & Democrats (S&D), the second-largest group in the Parliament, is furious that their group picked up no new top jobs in the horse-trading. The far-left GUE group and the Greens are sceptical of Von der Leyen because of her conservative positions. Together with the inevitable 'no' votes of the eurosceptic members of parliament, they could sink her nomination.

To spare her, the left is going to ask for some major concessions. One of these is likely to be some guarantees on climate change.​

So, the EU Parliament appears to be ideologically on the move - to the left. What could go wrong?

 

So, who do the bookies in the UK think is most likely to be the next UK Ambassador to the US?

You guessed it. Nigel Farage.

Ambassador Nigel! Farage bookies favourite to become next US ambassador after Trump row

The Brexit Party leader is the 3/1 favourite with bookmaking giant PaddyPower to succeed Sir Kim - whose resignation this morning sent shockwaves through Westminster. Mr Farage, who is a close friend of US President Donald Trump, previously stated in 2016 he would be “very useful” in the role. A Paddy Power spokesman said: “As Sir Kim steps down as UK ambassador to the US, there’s one man who’s in Trump’s pocket enough to be the natural replacement – Nigel Farage.

Other contenders include Mr Farage’s fellow Brexit Party MEP, Ann Widdecombe, who is priced at 10/1.
Meanwhile, Mr Trump’s close pal Piers Morgan, is not given much hope of venturing into politics, with odds of 250/1.​

I will not be holding my breath waiting for this to actually happen. But it would be a lot of fun, wouldn't it?