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Texas Becoming Blue and its Impact

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Haymitch, Jul 21, 2016.

  1. Haymitch

    Haymitch Contributing Member

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    (I know this has been brought up SEVERAL times in multiple threads, but I thought it could warrant its own thread. If you disagree, please ignore or ask mods to lock it. It's similar to but different enough from the "white strategy" thread.)

    From what I've read, it sounds like Texas is on its way to becoming a blue state. According to this opinion piece from George Will below, that would have a large impact on presidential elections going forward.

    So I'm curious what you all think about this.

    Do you agree with the premise that Texas is becoming / will become a Dem-voting state?
    • If not, why not?
    • If so, does this damn-near guarantee the next several presidential elections to have Dem winners? What would the impact of that be - would it cause a new, reformed Republican party to emerge, or some other party altogether? Or maybe multiple new parties?
    My (not incredibly informed) opinion:

    • Texas will become a Dem-voting state
    • This will lock up the next few presidential elections for the Dems
    • We'll eventually have two parties that would nowadays be labeled Democrats, maybe a Sanders-type party and a Clinton-type party
    • This might be enough to eventually inspire the growth and/or resurgence of a new party and/or reformed Republican party
    • However, by this point, the country will have permanently shifted to the left
    So, all, what say you on this topic? Maybe I'm taking a too Texas-centric perspective on the country as a whole, but I could see things playing out this way.

    George Will WaPo article:

     
  2. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    Most "conservatives" on this forum just deny the inevitable on Texas turning blue and will probably continue to do so until it actually happens.

    Regarding the "blue wall", the national republican party will adjust and presidential races will be competitive. Dems will help them by pulling more to the left. These are also inevitable.
     
  3. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    Don't see it happening, for the following reasons:
    Too many overwhelmingly red areas in Texas. Many of which don't even have candidates from Democratic party. A big part of the blame is on the Democratic party side... not even bothering to put a candidate up.
    Lack of good candidates (see above)
    Gerrymandering has already made it difficult for Democrats to win in many districts
     
  4. dc rock

    dc rock Contributing Member

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    If it turns blue, it's all demographics and a repulsion to state Republicans' extremism and hate-mongering. The state's Democratic Party is very inept and backward thinking regarding candidate recruitment and data-driven campaigning.
     
  5. Haymitch

    Haymitch Contributing Member

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    If Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and Austin all start voting Democrat, will it matter if the folks of Orange, TX vote 100% Republican?
     
  6. ThatBoyNick

    ThatBoyNick Member

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    Well, about that 51%

    Does that mean Dems are at 49%, or are there others parties taking ups votes?

    Young people lean D, if its that close now you can bet in 8-12 years it will turn.
     
  7. Kevooooo

    Kevooooo Member

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    I don't see it happening anytime soon. I thought it was on its way to turning purple in the last gubernatorial election, but Republicans won by a larger margin than I anticipated -- thought Davis would do a whole lot better considering the press coverage she got. She had a lot of campaign missteps though and ended up losing by like 20 pts. Patrick and Abbott both did fairly well with Hispanics too, iirc.

    The Republican Party of Texas has been working hard on minority outreach the last few years. When I went through RPT campaign management school (yes, it's a thing lol) it was a huge focus.

    Trump's rhetoric could certainly make a huge difference, but as of now, I don't see Democrats winning a statewide election in the next decade. Texas wasn't on the Trump train until Cruz was out, so that MIGHT help in the eyes of conservative Hispanics.

    http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/TX/governor/

    That's a whole lot of red.

    The fact is, many Hispanics in Texas have conservative values. When the message is delivered correctly, and Republicans campaign and engage in historically Democrat areas, they can pull some of those votes. Republicans have, due to campaign strategies and limited funds, historically campaigned in areas that have shown responsive to Republican candidates. It's hard for a campaign manager to encourage a candidate to go into a potentially hostile environment filled with likely Democrat voters, especially with social media today. That's been changing in many areas of the state, especially the big cities.

    Republicans are making more of an effort to engage these groups and I think that will lead to more Republican votes, not less.

    That's just my opinion, obviously. For the record, I've never run a campaign, and I've only volunteered for one campaign. I hate campaigning and politics in general.
     
  8. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    Nah. I think the Republicans are in the throes of a transformation right now (the deepest, darkest part of that transformation right now). The party knows it has to change to attract minority, and particularly Hispanic, voters, but there is a large reactionary white contingent holding out. Which has produced Trump. But, that will eventually pass and the Republicans' platform will shift quickly to be more pro-Hispanic. Once they can get immigration issues off the table with some kind of legislative resolution, the party can actually perform pretty well with the Hispanic community, which tend to be conservative, at least in Texas. So, I don't expect Texas to turn blue; I expect Texan hispanics to turn red, assuming that after this little epileptic fit the Republicans will do the obvious things to fix immigration policy and court their votes. (It's also possible that the more liberal California Chicano movement spreads into the other border states, but in my admittedly unstudied experience I'm not seeing it.)
     
  9. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Contributing Member

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    "Blue" and "Red" states is a short sighted vision. Parties adjust to one side or the other. Anyone who thinks one party is better than the other is a fool. Neither are based on a principle.

    The Republicans are shattered. The GOP continues to push and support candidates like Cruz, Rubio, Palin, and the rest of the nutters who are stuck 30 years history while the Republican base continues to nominate RINO's for presidency. Trump, Romney, Christie, and McCain are more liberal than RINO.

    The Democrats, who grandstand on 'fairness, justice, blah blah blah', nominate a corrupt Hillary over a principled Bernie.

    The republican voting base is obviously adjusting their perspective. When the republican base thumbs its nose at the GOP and votes in Trump, that says a lot. If Trump did not go so hard on the Hispanic population, he would be sitting so much better in Texas.

    The democrat party and its voting base are sitting in denial right now. They are enjoying the laughing stock of Trump when they just let Hillary Clinton in the door.

    With the insanity of both parties right now, I do not think we should put too much stock in what states are swinging in what direction. The Republicans will eventually pander to the hispanics sooner than later.
     
  10. London'sBurning

    London'sBurning Contributing Member

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    Texas will become a blue state in my lifetime and no amount of gerrymandering from Repubs will change it.
     
  11. rockbox

    rockbox Contributing Member

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    Texas voter, especially minority and urban voters, are largely apathetic. We won't know what will happen until after this election because more people tend to vote during presidential years.
     
  12. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    So, your belief is that Harris County, or Austin County, or etc will vote all democrat (or significantly enough so to counter those counties that vote overwhelmingly GOP? I'm in Montgomery county, so don't know the other counties, but suspect they still vote significantly for GOP candidates.
     
  13. ipaman

    ipaman Contributing Member

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    Actually what is happening is that Red is becoming Pink (lighter shade of red) and Blue is becoming Indigo (darker shade of Blue) but the Repubtards are being stubborn trying to stick with their traditional old way of thinking Red. If they get their heads out of their asses and move towards Pink they could dominate because the Blue shift to Indigo by the full blown libtard movement is to liberal for many folks. The Dems have had and still have the sweet spot for now but it won't last.

    This country desperately needs a new moderate party and whomever fills that void will dominate in the future.
     
  14. Kevooooo

    Kevooooo Member

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    Very true.

    Things can always change. But I don't see the youth in this country getting more involved. They like to protest and scream and yell, but they don't encourage anyone to vote or to transform their protests into productive dialogue to make change.

    Couple that with our narcissistic selfie culture and we are doomed.
     
  15. Kevooooo

    Kevooooo Member

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    Do you think Jeb or Kasich would have been a shoo in to the White House had either won the nomination? Being as they're both far more moderate than Trump....though I don't believe Trump is a conservative, nor an actual Republican. He's nothing but an opportunist.
     
  16. Haymitch

    Haymitch Contributing Member

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    I think that's becoming more rather than less likely.

    According to my 5 Google searches:

    Population of Texas:

    26.96 as of 2014

    Houston metro:

    6,490,180

    DFW:

    7,102,796

    SA metro:

    2,328,652

    Austin metro:

    2,000,860​

    That's 66% of the population in those 4. Obviously this is everyone and not just those of voting age, much less a count of the number of people who actually do go out and vote. But still. I think as those Big 4 go the rest of the state will follow.
     
  17. Cohete Rojo

    Cohete Rojo Contributing Member

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    I have nothing to add to the discussion.

    [​IMG]
     
  18. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Insider Newsletter™ 2X Diamond Member

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    Florida might teeter on blue as well.

    I imagine Penn and Ohio will consolidate red if Republicans can get their **** together and promote more populist "hard working" and less racist agendas.
     
  19. Kevooooo

    Kevooooo Member

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    Yes, but those numbers represent the Houston metro area, including many suburbs outside of central Houston -- most of whom vote Republican. Those that represent part of Houston in the Texas Leg as of now:

    Senate:

    Creighton (R)
    Bettencourt (R)
    Taylor (R)
    Ellis (D) -- soon to be Borris Miles (D)
    Whitmire (D)
    Huffman (R)
    Kolkhorst (R)

    5 R -- 2 D

    House:

    Bell (R)
    Keough (R)
    Miller (R)
    Reynolds (D)
    Zerwas (R)
    Harless (R)
    Huberty (R)
    Smith (R)
    Paul (R)
    Fletcher (R)
    Allen (D)
    Schofield (R)
    Murphy (R)
    Davis (R)
    Elkins (R)
    Wu (D)
    Bohac (R)
    Johnson (D)
    Walle (D)
    Thompson (D)
    Dutton (D)
    Hernandez (D)
    Pena (R)
    Alvarado (D)
    Miles (D -- likely to be replaced by a D when he takes Ellis' seat)
    Coleman (D)
    Farrar (D)
    Vo (D)
    Riddle (R)

    16 R -- 11 D
     
  20. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    We don't often agree, but I can endorse most of this. Liberals keep thinking conservatism is dying out. I don't see that at all. Some of the traditional positions of the old conservatives have lost, but many ideals of conservatism are actually winning, and the Republican party is shifting with these changes.

    I can agree that Republicans are becoming more conservative -- at least in the small government and free markets sense, not so much on moralism -- but I wouldn't say the Democrats are becoming more liberal. Yes, there was Bernie Sanders and the return of some classical liberalism and a heavy dose of statism, but I think that's more of the exception to the trend we've seen over the last 40 years of Democrats becoming less and less liberal. They still largely believe in the power of governance, but they've been conceding more and more to deregulation, to free markets, and to the private sphere my entire life. The only way in which they've become more liberal is in pushing on equal rights -- for racial minorities, for women, for LGBT, etc. In total, I don't see that the polarization has increased. I think the whole country has gotten more libertarian -- more small government, more capitalist, more secular, more individual rights, and more equal protection.
     
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