Statistics Question - Video Poker

It should work. Bobrek had already posted it. I just didn't realize what he posted was the same thing.

 

50/50.

You either win or you lose.

 

I like math. I don't like doing math.

 

You are assuming these video poker machines are following the exact odds. I could be wrong, but I don't think they do.

 

I had assumed there were regulations in place for gambling licenses that dictate fair odds.

Is this not so?

 

When attempting to draw a particular card, your odds of hitting that 4th Ace are 1/47 on the first draw and then 1/46 on the 2nd draw.

The odds are the same for every hand. So each of those 10 hands has the exact same odds of hitting that Ace.

However, when dealing with a random draw on a larger sample size, there are bound to be a random set of outcomes.

So although the odds seem better with 10 hands, I believe this is ultimately an illusion.

 

Yeah statistics and probability are a whole different breed of math.

Regression to the mean is what you are referring to.

For instance a coin is flipped 99 times and hits tails all 99 times. What are the odds it hits heads on the 100th toss? Still 50/50. There is no recency bias in stats.

While regession to the mean tells you that heads has to come up sooner or later, the odds are still 50/50 on that 100th toss.