After sitting out the first month-plus of the NBA season without a contract, Houston Rockets restricted free agent Donatas Motiejunas has at last agreed to an offer sheet from the Brooklyn Nets. The Rockets now have 72 hours to decide whether to match the offer. Should they? And would the addition of Motiejunas help the Nets? Let's take a look. Reasonable gamble for Brooklyn While Motiejunas was at home over the summer waiting for his phone to ring with an offer, the Nets quietly signed journeyman Justin Hamilton, who spent last season playing in Spain. Like Motiejunas, Hamilton is a 7-footer with the ability to stretch the floor. He's shot 40.7 percent from 3-point range this season, though his career mark (37.4 percent) is probably a better indicator of what Brooklyn can expect from him going forward. Motiejunas is the better shot creator, having averaged 14.8 points per 36 minutes over his career to Hamilton's 11.6 (12.4 so far this season). But only in his best season -- 2014-15, when he shot a career-high 36.8 percent from 3-point range -- has Motiejunas' true shooting percentage (.553) surpassed the worst mark of Hamilton's career to date (.551). Besides his effectiveness posting up smaller defenders, Motiejunas' other advantage over Hamilton is his superior defense. Though he's not much of a rim protector, Motiejunas is mobile for a 7-footer, which enabled him to play power forward alongside Dwight Howard in Houston and would allow him to do the same alongside Brook Lopez in a role Hamilton has frequently played this year. The multi-year version of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) rates Motiejunas 1.6 points per 100 possessions better than league average defensively, while Hamilton rates a minus-0.4 -- exceptionally poor for a big man. Still, the two similar players appear a lot closer in value than their new contracts would imply. Hamilton got $6 million over two years from the Nets, [less total than Motiejunas will make per season]. Of course, Brooklyn may find value in having both players, particularly if Lopez is traded or misses time due to injury. Hamilton has been the only other true center on the Nets' roster, with Luis Scola capable of sliding down from power forward. Brooklyn GM Sean Marks is also on the hunt for talent wherever he can find it right now, having left some $18 million in cap space unspent last summer after offer sheets to restricted free agents Allen Crabbe and Tyler Johnson were matched by their original teams. Nonetheless, I probably would have kept that cap space clear in case a team wanted to dump a huge salary before the trade deadline. Given Motiejunas' health, it's also possible the Nets could do better with their money next summer, when fewer teams will have cap space. Rockets must choose between depth and flexibility Brooklyn was in position to make an offer sheet to Motiejunas -- the first signed during the regular season under the current NBA collective bargaining agreement, per Bobby Marks of The Vertical -- only because Houston had been unable to strike a deal with the restricted free agent. As ESPN's Marc Stein has reported, the Rockets were hoping to sign Motiejunas by last week so that he'd be eligible to be traded before the deadline. Wherever Motiejunas lands now, he can't be traded this season. However, their offer was predictably team-friendly, as none of Motiejunas' salary was fully guaranteed beyond this year. Given that context, Houston matching this offer sheet is no sure thing. Between concerns about Motiejunas' back and the Rockets' obsessive desire to maintain flexibility, they may not want to want to tie up so much salary down the road. After all, Houston has gotten along just fine without Motiejunas. On paper, he would slot in as a backup power forward when Rockets centers Clint Capela and Nenê are healthy, a spot that has been filled by combo forward Sam Dekker. Per NBAwowy.com, lineups with Dekker at power forward and James Harden on the court have outscored opponents by 8.7 points per 100 possessions. Motiejunas could still be valuable to Houston. The Rockets could slide Dekker to small forward alongside Motiejunas in bigger, slower lineups that excise the struggling Corey Brewer from the rotation. Motiejunas would also be valuable as injury insurance. The tradeoff there is a fully guaranteed 2017-18 salary for Motiejunas would swallow up most of the $10 million or so in projected cap space Houston can clear next summer. If the Rockets were eager to sacrifice that space, Motiejunas would already be wearing a Houston uniform. So my guess is although this offer sheet is reasonable, the Rockets will probably decline to match.
With him they legit go 2-deep at every position. Problem is they already don't play the young guys enough... I think even though it's reasonable and it would be nice to have the healthy, engaged DMo...that isn't who he is. So long DMo, we hardly knew ye...
That's NINE teams 1/3 of the league he just tossed out there as landing spots or SURE things , just terrible "insiding"
if the Rox will match this offer and retain Dmo, that means : - there will be less minutes of Anderson, Dekker and Harrell, and maybe a bit from Capela or Nene. - and that means, you are giving minutes to a guy whose OBVIOUSLY a worse 3 point shooter than Anderson, worse athletic than the young blood, and worse rebounder than all of above mentioned. - This team needs flexibility on spacing, not only on the cap, but also on the court too. Any of the above mentioned players will be the better fits for this current system than him.
I'm surprised at your grotesque negligence of the facts. We can probably be assured that he brings the donuts to practice. And makes the occasional Starbucks run for the gang.
I think D.Mo will eventually eat Nene and Brewer (at most) minutes...as today at least -> assuming he can stay healty and play well enough obviously.
Not Worried about GSW (there's a chance they fail in early in the Play Offs) but teams like San Antonio and Clippers who have solid pivotal 5/4s. Don't sign DMo and take a chance that the Rockets may never get somebody else before the trade deadline and roll with just Capela/Nene. Chances are Nene doesn't make the 12 man roster over guys like Dekker anyways.
How does D-Mo help us against the Clippers? I would feel a very athletic, rebounding big man with defense matches up well against the Clippers.
I'm in agreement with this article. I'd rather see the team maintain flexibility before the trade deadline and into the summer in order to find a difference-maker or at least add toughness to the frontcourt. Besides, I think the team has found ways to compensate for Motiejunas' skill set with the other frontcourt players. The only exception is his postup play, which would be a nice addition to the mix. But personally, I'd rather the Rockets pursue other avenues of improvement.
You'd be surprise. Dmo knows the art of positional defense. He's f'd Griffin and Jordan on several occasions if you go back and look at some film.
This is like WestWorld, there are multiple time lines where you don't know which one is the real DMO's future
Positional defense shouldn't be getting him significant time over Dekker, who is largely quarterbacking the defense and double checking Harden while he's out there
I think Eric and D-Mo are going to be deadly together, plus the defense of that second unit is going to be really good. Eric, Sam, D-Mo, Nene and even Brew would be though for the other teams second unit to score against.
