Hilarious thread. Some people are providing actual facts and stats to back up their claim while the haters are simply attacking the the person... sigh... It's like they're just doing it just to spite Lin fans, which is sad since some of the more crazy Lin fans are really just trolls that probably have multiple accounts trying to rile things up. Stop being tricked and judge the player on the court. The simple fact is this: Statistics of last 5 min this season: Code: Jeremy Lin GP FG% 3FG% FT% AST TO STL PTS eFG% TS% USG% 26 54.2% 60.0% 78.9% 5 3 4 44 60.4% 68.0% 21.8% James Harden GP FG% 3FG% FT% AST TO STL PTS eFG% TS% USG% 31 43.1% 29.4% 85.7% 12 11 4 98 47.5% 60.3% 37.9% Carlos Delfino GP FG% 3FG% FT% AST To STL PTS eFG% TS% USG% 24 38.9% 33.3% 100% 4 1 1 21 45.0% 49.2% 14.5% Patrick Beverly GP FG% 3FG% FT% AST To STL PTS eFG% TS% USG% 6 33.3% 50.0% / 1 1 0 6 50.0% 50.0% 19.6%
You put things so eloquently that I think I'll just stop typing anything else and simply quote your posts. Oh, I agree btw.
How is that possible when he realizes playing well or not he won't see crunch time. Mchale doesn't want anything to do with Lin. He cut him once and he wants to marginalize him to the point that he can be cut again.
I'm sure Morey knows this. Interesting and facts don't lie. 1st and 4th quarter seem to be Jeremy's best minutes. But 68% TS%? ...i think Lin should play the final 7-8 minutes irrespective of how the bench PG might be playing. why? because starters start. and starters close.
Are there defensive stats for the last 5 minutes as well, that would provide a more complete picture of the situation. Lin being a better offensive player in the clutch than Beverley should be without question, but often times the decision is based on, or at least said to be based on, defense.
So you were excited about the loss last night, or the other 3 losses to Dallas this year? And the Portland OT losses? How bout the Kings? How bout the loss to Minny with their d league starters on 10 day contracts? You felt all warm about those games too? This is a 5 or 6 seed team right now if NOT for mchale. He gets credit for what? When have you said this season "great move by mchale!" "Great preparation by the HC" or "terrific adjustment after that timeout"?
Why do you think PB is a better defender than Lin? Because clearly this is the same bias that mchale has, but what is it based on? Your eye test?
I don't care McHell play Lin or not. But I just know one thing that he got out coach again in a winnable game against some mediocre team.
"Judge the player on the court"? No, you have to judge five playerS on the court. No one has yet shown other players' performance with and without Lin in the last 5 minutes. It could be than Lin goes offer and other people's games suffer.
Check the facts. Harden, Parsons, Asik and Delfino all have better +/- with Lin on the bench and/or Beverley on the floor. Read back a couple pages in the thread.
I didn't say that your conclusion based on averages was wrong. It's just susceptible to error because of outliers. Looking at the individual distributions more clearly illustrates the complete picture. What if one game was +20 and the others -2? Based on the individual results, the story seems to become more compelling. However, there may be some other stats in play like TO, TS%, etc. that might contradict some of the other stats. Assuming that those are in line, then Lin as a closer seems to be the better option, which is probably why it represents the vast majority of cases. With the individual games, I think it also makes sense to include the opponent. A -2 against Chris Paul might be more impressive than +7 against Andre Miller for instance.
Five players on the court together can be judged by their collective plus/minus. Next time during the first period watch the starters' stats for the first 6 minutes when they are all playing together they will have the same +/-. Similarly when you look at the +/- of the last five minutes of the game you can judge how the group played. Assuming there aren't too many subsitution sin the last five., which there usually aren't. So if the group with Lin has better +/- then with another PG than you can generally assume that the group is playing better, in part, due to the player. It's also more convincing when the same player is also winning more games in the last five minutes.
OK, I misunderstood what you were doing with +/-. You still gotta get Douglas out of the equation. He's irrelevant.
I see what you mean by the +20 and -2 extremes, but in the case of this set the data seem to be bunched closer to the mean. You're right about opponent strength as well, but I guess the best way is to allow a large sample size to cancel out by averaging the opponents strength. Either that or methodically tabulating table for opponent strength, but then why stop there might as well include home/away, back to backs, etc. Which unfortunately would require way more time than i thought i had free when I started this post. But thanks for you insights!
