Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by kevC, Oct 17, 2016.
Jim Crane on how aggressively the Astros will pursue Ohtani...
Dodgers and Yankees have the advantage of money for the long term. Astros roster edge is pretty big over Yankees right now and Kershaw is a free agent next year (think Dodgers keep him, but that's a good portion of their money edge). Unless Ohtani is weighting years after his 1st contract heavily, Astros are the top choice regarding winning.
I feel like he would stick in the AL so he can DH, but on that note, can someone give me an example of a pitcher who DH'd in between starts?
I'd be very surprised if Ohtani is such a sensitive flower as to let Gurriel's gesture affect him. And what the hell makes a reputation for being analytical & 'squeezing their players for the maximized return on their money' negative? Crane also has a reputation for generosity, coming to the aid of hurricane victims, providing top notch facilities like a new Spring Training complex to help his players, plus the players have said again & again that he is the best owner in baseball.
Unless Astros are not an MLB team any more, they are at least a dark horse candidate. Only thing we know for sure is he isn't being motivated solely by money and the Rangers still suck.
Let’s fantasize about what the fallout would be if Houston were somehow able to sign Ohtani to be in their rotation and their primary DH. My guesses:
I think they would trade Keuchel and Gattis. That along with dumping Sipp and Fiers clears quite a bit of money (not to mention Keuchel would bring in premium prospects).
So now they have “needs” in LF, backup C, and the bullpen with probably $30-40M in payroll flexibility.
Sign Lucroy, Nicasio, and Minor. Probably takes 1/2 of the available money. Take the prospects they got for Keuchel and flip them (along with some combo of Moran, Fisher, Paulino, Martes, Hoyt, Feliz, White, and Reed) for Yellich and Britton. The resulting roster:
Bench: Marwin, McCann, Marisnick
Rotation: Verlander, Ohtani, McCullers, Morton, McHugh
Bullpen: Peacock, Minor, Nicasio, Devenski, Musgrove, Harris, Giles, Britton
A different version of this could play out with them keeping Keuchel and trading McCullers or McHugh, which of course would mean a better rotation but adding a lesser LF than Yellich and probably not having enough money for all 3 free agents I listed. Bottom line is just like any other org, adding Ohtani would be a game changer for the Astros. That position player roster would be one of the best of all time and there’s not a single arguable weakness in that 25 man roster.
No one has any idea how Otani is going to translate, either as a pitcher or a hitter. Astros aren't going to trade Keuchel based on hoping he'll pan out. And there's virtually zero chance any team lets him be both a starting pitcher and primary DH, especially not a World Series contender. He'll likely be a pitcher and part time hitter at best, at least for a couple of years. That might be his reasoning for going to a rebuilding team - they have more flexibility to experiment with him.
That said, I think there's little chance we get him for that reason. He's asking teams for their pitches, and it's likely that some teams in need of star power or marketing make some ridiculous playing time promises and such. The Astros are unlikely to be one of those teams.
If Astros get Ohtani, step 1, drink.
Step 2, Astros would then likely go about signing, trading for a couple of relievers.
Step 3 trade McHugh as I doubt Astros carry two starters in pen.
Step 4 Astros make move regarding a position player, likely catcher or DH, that they would do with or without Ohtani.
Why not trade Keuchel? He is gone after next season anyways.
Depends on how good he is. Not having to pay 150 million on a quality starter can buy a mighty fine position player to make up for having a sub par hitting DH. If he doesn't hit well, he will lose the DH spot, but only 3 primary DHs were above average hitters last season.
He's a great pitcher that will still be useful in playoffs for one season.
Ohtani is being talked about as a $200M player if weren’t restricted; not one team has tempered that hype. So I would say they have a pretty good idea how he is going to translate. Otherwise he’d be discussed in the same terms as Moncada or any other elite international prospect. But the fact that descriptions on Ohtani dwarf those used on other elite players like Tanaka and Darvish means teams are confident he will be a star.
He will likely be limited on both sides. He won’t pitch more than 140 regular season innings, and he won’t get more than 400 PA, but that’s just all part of the pitch. I do think he will end up being in a team’s rotation AND in their lineup more often than not. In Houston’s case, he would be their primary DH, but that may only mean 2/3 of the time, with Marwin/McCann/etc getting time.
Because the team just won a World Series, he's popular with fans, and the team still needs him this year.
Teams are risk-averse. Maybe a team will give him that chance, but I think teams will take it very slowly and try to have him focus on pitching for a while. You throw him in there to both and if he sucks, people will question whether that was the right decision, whether the team ruined him, etc.
Astros are going to playoffs. There is no risk in allowing him DH for first half if it gets him to Astros. If he doesn't hit, switch him to just being a pitcher. On hitting, it is better to have him hit early in year so you know what you have. If he struggles pitching, reduce the hitting.
If him being given a chance at DH is a condition of signing, he's likely too good a pitcher to say no.
The Astros stuck with Beltran, who was absolutely terrible at the plate, for the entire year last year. If any team has the track record to give Ohtani as much time as he wants at DH it's the Astros. It's probably one of the few things the Astros can offer that other teams can't. We have such a good lineup even a replacement level DH doesn't put a dent into overall production.
I understand the logic, but I don't think that's the way the Astros operate. They are going to make a case for what *they* think is best for the player, and I don't think they'll commit to making him both an SP and DH while also adjusting to living in the US and playing in MLB. I think other teams will be more willing to do what *he* may think is best, and that's why I think he'll end up elsewhere - in particular, to a team willing to make more concessions than I think the Astros' front office will do.
I'm fine if we get him but I agree we have no idea how good this guy really is. It's not like he was hitting .390 with the power and a 1.00 era, He's been good but not over powering on either side of the ball in a league considered the rough equivalent of AAA.
I would say he's been overpowering on both sides considering he was 21 last year in the equivalent of AAA.
He was basically a minor league version of George Springer at the plate combined with Walker beuhler on the mound.
He would be a top 15 prospect as a hitter or as a pitcher, but the fact he does both at the level is amazing.
Because something called a second World Series championship.
Seems like we may be a team that will tandem start or go with a 6 man rotation... and carrying 12-13 pitchers on the roster is not out of the norm for this team.