Scrambling for Votes, Democrats Face Uphill Climb to Pass Healthcare Reform

Looks like it is down to the nut-cutting. If the Democrats thought they had the votes to pass the Senate bill in the House at any point up until now, they would have already taken the vote and passed it, and President Obama would have signed it into law. But obviously, that has not happened.

Every indication is that the final verdict on President Obama's healthcare agenda will probably be handed down this coming week. The tension in the air is so thick around this issue, you could 'cut it with a knife.'

Of course I hope the Senate bill is voted down in the House. If the following assessment from 'The Hill' is accurate, it appears that there is a very good chance that it will be:

[RQUOTER]Scrambling for Votes, Democrats Face Uphill Climb to Pass Healthcare Reform

House Democratic leaders don’t have the votes to pass healthcare reform. At least not yet. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has expressed confidence that when push comes to shove, healthcare reform will pass Congress. But there will be plenty of pushing in the days ahead. Pelosi is clearly down in the vote count. Thirty-four House Democrats are either firm no votes or leaning no, according to The Hill’s whip list. Dozens more are undecided.

The list of Democratic members who haven't committed ranges widely, from liberal Reps. Michael Capuano (Mass.) and Anthony Weiner (N.Y.) to centrist Reps. Jason Altmire (Pa.) and Chris Carney (Pa.). Two committee chairmen -- Reps. Ike Skelton (D-Mo.) and Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) -- say they are firm nos and three others, Reps. John Spratt (D-S.C.), Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.) and Jim Oberstar (D-Minn.), are undecided.

If every House member votes and all Republicans reject the bill as expected, Pelosi can only afford 37 Democratic defections. That breakdown of the votes would lead to a 216-215 tally. Of the 34 no votes/leaning no votes, eight of them backed the House-backed bill in November. Meanwhile, nine Democrats who voted no last fall are publicly on the fence.

Friday’s decision by Democratic leaders to forge ahead without the backing of anti-abortion rights Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) has dealt a blow to the chances the lower chamber can pass a health bill. Lacking votes last November, Pelosi struck a deal with Stupak and the House measure subsequently passed, 220-215. On Tuesday, Stupak told the Associated Press that he was “more optimistic” that a deal on the health bill’s provisions on abortion would be reached. But after days of discussions, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said on Friday such a compromise is unlikely. Like Pelosi, Hoyer expressed confidence that the votes will be there when the bill hits the floor, which could be within a week.

Stupak has long said he and 11 other members who voted yes the first time will reject the final bill if it does not include strong anti-abortion language. Yet there are indications that the number of votes Stupak has in his pocket may be closer to a half-dozen. Earlier this week, Stupak told CQ, “Twelve’s a firm number.” But in an interview with NRO Online on Friday, Stupak acknowledged that his coalition is cracking: “At this point, there is no doubt that they’ve been able to peel off one or two of my 12... I’m disappointed in my colleagues who said they’d be with us and now they’re not.”

Stupak said some Democrats “are having their arms twisted, and we’re all getting pounded by our traditional Democratic supporters, like unions.” Democrats who remain in Stupak’s camp include Reps. Marion Berry (Ark.), Henry Cuellar (Texas), Joe Donnelly (Ind.), Steve Driehaus (Ohio) and Dan Lipinski (Ill.). Meanwhile, Rep. Dale Kildee (D), Stupak's colleague from Michigan, is a firm yes while Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) has said the abortion language is not a deal breaker for her vote. Reps. Brad Ellsworth (D-Ind.), Jerry Costello (D-Ill.), Kathy Dahlkemper (D-Pa.), Charlie Wilson (D-Ohio) and Oberstar are publicly undecided. Most on Capitol Hill believe Oberstar, who heads the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, will back the final measure.

In discussing hard-to-move legislation last year, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said discussions with on-the-fence lawmakers are essential. “If the votes were there,” Emanuel said at a Christian Science Monitor-sponsored breakfast, “you wouldn’t need to have the meeting, you’d go to a roll call. OK?”

....(More at the Link)[/RQUOTER]

 

The Democrats face an uphill climb to obtain the votes they need to pass the Senate health care bill in the House of Representatives.

And here is a very good article that explains the reason why:

[RQUOTER]Swing Districts Oppose Health Reform
Sobering poll news for 35 key House members.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says she plans to bring health-care reform to a vote this week. Democratic leaders cite national polls that show support for individual provisions of the bill as a reason to pass this reform. Yet vulnerable politicians should be warned: Responses to questions about individual benefits, particularly when removed from a cost context, are different from those on the whole bill.

Voters in key congressional districts are clear in their opposition to what they have seen, read and heard on health-care reform. That's one of the findings of a survey that will be released today by the Polling Company on behalf of Independent Women's Voice. The survey consisted of 1,200 registered voters in 35 districts represented by members who could determine the outcome of the health-care debate. Twenty of those members voted for the House bill in November but now may be reconsidering. Fifteen voted against the bill but are under tremendous pressure to change their vote.

The survey shows astonishing intensity and sharp opposition to reform, far more than national polls reflect. For 82% of those surveyed, the heath-care bill is either the top or one of the top three issues for deciding whom to support for Congress next November. (That number goes to 88% among independent women.) Sixty percent want Congress to start from scratch on a bipartisan health-care reform proposal or stop working on it this year. Majorities say the legislation will make them and their loved ones (53%), the economy (54%) and the U.S. health-care system (55%) worse off—quite the trifecta.

Seven in 10 would vote against a House member who votes for the Senate health-care bill with its special interest provisions. That includes 45% of self-identified Democrats, 72% of independents and 88% of Republicans. Three in four disagree that the federal government should mandate that everyone buy a government-approved insurance plan (64% strongly so), and 81% say any reform should focus first on reducing costs. Three quarters agree that Americans have the right to choose not to participate in any health-care system or plan without a penalty or fine.

That translates into specific concerns with the Senate legislation—and none of these objections would be addressed by the proposed fixes. Over 70%—indeed in several districts over 80%—of respondents, across party lines, said that the following information made them less supportive: the bill mandates that individuals purchase insurance or face penalties; it cuts Medicare Advantage; it will force potentially millions to lose existing coverage; it will cost an estimated $2.3 trillion over its first 10 years; and it will grant unprecedented new powers to the Health and Human Services secretary.

Should members from these districts and those like them be concerned? Yes. Walking the Democratic line now means walking the plank. Sixty percent of the voters surveyed will vote for a candidate who opposes the current legislation and wants to start over.

What about passing the Senate bill and then fixing problems via reconciliation, a process that could allow Congress to pass a second health-care bill with a simple Senate majority? Sixty-three percent (50% strongly) think reconciliation is at best a political promise and their congressman shouldn't vote for the Senate bill if he doesn't agree with it as written.

But the survey does provide a little good news for wavering Democrats. A congressman can buy himself a little grace if he had previously voted for health-care reform but now votes against it. Forty-nine percent of voters will feel more supportive of that member if he does so, 40% less supportive. More dramatically, 58% of voters say they will be more supportive of their congressman's re-election if he votes against the bill a second time. However, for those members who voted against it in November and vote yes this time, 61% of voters say they will be less likely to support their re-election.

Over a third of respondents say they will actively work against a candidate who votes the wrong way or for the candidate who votes the right way. Perhaps that's because dramatic pluralities of both sexes—young people, seniors and independents, regardless of whether John McCain or Barack Obama carried the district in 2008—say that if the legislation doesn't pass they will be relieved.

These are the constituents of the members whose votes will matter most this week. Perhaps, if this republic is still the people's, those members should heed those they claim to represent.[/RQUOTER]

 

Nancy Pelosi is now ready to lead an end-run around a direct vote on the Senate health care bill, because, to quote her:

[RQUOTER]'Nobody Wants to Vote for the Senate bill'

The Democratic spin explaining why polls show the public opposed to their health care bill is that voters actually like the individual pieces of the bill but have been turned off by the messy process.

Yesterday, Joel Benenson, a pollster for the Democratic National Committee, reported the results of his own survey done for the Service Employees International Union. It claims the difficulty liberals are having in selling health-care reform "centers squarely on perceptions of a breakdown in the legislative process, exemplified by deal-cutting and special deals for the constituents of key swing Senators."

But it appears that Democrats are ignoring their own findings. Last week, President Obama backed away from his earlier demand that lawmakers' special deals be stripped out of the bill. Then there's Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who yesterday endorsed a parliamentary maneuver under which the House would "deem" the Senate's health care bill approved without the House voting on it.

Ms. Pelosi actually told reporters: "Nobody wants to vote for the Senate bill." Her scheme to allow House members to escape political responsibility even drew the ire of the Washington Post editorial page, which has strongly backed health care reform: "What is intended as a final sprint threatens to turn into something unseemly and, more important, contrary to Democrats' promises of transparency and time for deliberation."

In ramming through an unpopular 2,700-page health care bill using brute force tactics, Democrats are in danger of passing what amounts to the longest suicide note in history. Their own pollsters are telling them the public has rebelled against their tactics. So their response is to press their foot down even harder on the gas pedal. We'll see how that works out for them. [/RQUOTER]

The American people do not want this bill passed. That is why Democratic leaders in the House have not been able to muster enough Democratic votes to pass this monstrosity, even though the Democrats control a dominant majority in the House of Representatives. The Democrats who are poised to vote against his bill appear to be taking their job descriptions quite seriously. As 'Representatives' it is their job to 'Represent' the will of their constituents, not to play mommy or daddy, and take it upon themselves to determine what is best for their constituents whether their constituents like it or not.

This procedural gimmick being discussed by the Democrats is the very sort of thing that has caused the American people to become so frustrated and disappointed with their government in Washington. As I recall, this was just the sort of thing that Barack Obama insisted that he would change if he was elected president. But instead, he is actually encouraging it. So much for Barack Obama's promises of hope and change. This is not an example of 'change we can believe in'.

 

The Washington Post, hardly a bastion of right-wing conservative journalism, is not impressed. For those who are not familiar with the Washington Post, they have been consistently supportive of the Democrats health care reform efforts, but they have now drawn a line in the sand in front of this current procedural gimmick:

[RQUOTER]Health-Reform Vote Deserves a Reasonable Process

WE UNDERSTAND the administration's sense of urgency on health-care reform. But what is intended as a final sprint threatens to turn into something unseemly and, more important, contrary to Democrats' promises of transparency and time for deliberation.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told reporters Monday that she is leaning toward a parliamentary maneuver under which the House would vote on a package of changes to the Senate-approved reform bill, and the underlying Senate bill would then be "deemed" to have passed, even though the House had never voted on it. That may help some House members dodge a politically difficult decision, but it strikes us as a dodgy way to reform the health-care system. Democrats who vote for the package will be tagged with supporting the Senate bill in any event. Why not be straightforward about it?

More worrying is that Congress and the country have yet to see the changes, for which Democrats hope to win quick House approval and which they then hope to speed through the Senate under a procedure that would bar filibusters. These changes -- the so-called reconciliation bill -- are not all minor "fixes"; some could have far-reaching consequences. Such changes deserve to be fully understood and debated before they are voted on. The speaker's office says the week-long "conversation" that Nancy Pelosi promised to have with members is taking place and that they are waiting for the final word from the Congressional Budget Office before releasing the package; in any event, they say, lawmakers and the public will have 72 hours to consider the changes. But why be so secretive about it? Any number of measures -- including versions of the health-care bill itself -- have been unveiled without CBO scores.

The health-care debate has been going on longer than a year, and House members want to get it over with. They don't want it hanging over them during the Easter recess. President Obama wants progress to have been made before he leaves for Indonesia on Sunday. These are understandable desires, but they don't outweigh the need for a reasonable process on a matter of such importance. [/RQUOTER]

And needless to say, a significant majority of the American people will not be impressed either, if the Democrats actually try to go through with this obfuscatory little stunt. But it appears that the Democratic leaders in Congress and the White House really do not care what the American people think about passing this particular bill.

Here is looking forward to November 2, 2010.