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Opportunity has to present itself before we can make a move

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by meh, Jul 13, 2010.

  1. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    Part 1: Rant about making up trades(Skip if you're not into rants)

    Perhaps its due to video games, where you can always trade for whoever you want, whenever you want, if you simply pile up enough assets. Perhaps its due to the perception that if a team has no chance at a championship, then it must be selling its star(s) 50 cents on the dollar. But I always find it annoying when people just make up random trade where we trade assets and the other team trades its star.

    Think about it from the other team's perspective. Why would a mediocre team trade its only star player for a couple of our young guys? If you want to see how a losing team feels about its star player, just go see how Drayton/Wade/Astros-fans think about how much we should get for Roy Oswalt. Oswalt is older, more overpaid then any player mentioned in any Rockets trade rumors. Plus, the Astros also SUCK more than any of these teams mentioned in trade rumors. Yet we only just give our guy away cheaply, because everyone place great value on stars.

    Okay, now that we have some perspective...

    Part 2: What needs to come together for a big trade to happen

    Unfortunately, in order to get talent upgrade in this league, patience is not just a virtue, it's necessity. This is because normally, no team will trade better talent for worse talent out of sheer common sense.

    But of course, such trades do occur. But it's always due to several things coming together.

    Example 1: Scola and Butler for VSpan's NBA corpse

    1. Spurs had a deadline to trade Scola, who was otherwise going to stay in Europe
    2. Spurs were over the luxury tax, and needed to dump salary(Butler's contract)
    3. Spurs thought freaking Matt Bonner was awesome for some reason
    4. Spurs just drafted Splitter
    5. A trade that involved Scola fell short just before the deadline for him coming to the NBA.
    6. VSpan didn't want the Rockets money anymore.

    In a trade widely thought of as a heist by Morey, notice just how many factors had to come together for Morey to even be in position to get Scola. If even one of those above things had not occur, the trade might've never happened.

    Example 2: Kevin Martin for Landry

    1. The Kings drafted Tyreke Evans, who's more of a 2-guard than a point.
    2. Kevin Martin got injured
    3. Martin and Evans fit badly together
    4. Evans looked awesome and putting up 20/5/5
    5. Kings basically decided to put all their effort into Evans
    6. Martin's agent pouted and asked out of there.
    7. Kings GM waited until just a couple of days before deadline to make Martin available
    8. Morey was likely on Petrie's speed dial after the Artest trade which the Kings were very happy with
    9. Carl Landry BLEW UP
    10. The Kings needed a low post scorer badly.

    Kevin Martin went from untouchable at the beginning of last year, to being traded for an undersized 4. Again, notice how everything must go right for the trade to occur.

    That's why you can't rush trades. Because we cannot dictate what other teams do. Morey can only be prepared, and wait until the opportunity present itself, rather than telling the other team that they suck so much they should give us their stars.

    Part 3: What the Rockets should root for if we want Granger, Wallace, etc.

    Very simple. CONFLICT! We want trouble brewing at these teams' front offices, in their locker rooms. We want Paul George to look like a young T-Mac, and and then have Indiana realize that George and Granger both play the same position. We need Charlotte to suck, and Wallace to look disgruntled. We need CP3 to get injured again and Collison looking like an all-star.

    For this reason, it's most likely that the Rockets need to wait til the trade deadline to make a major deal. Because a storm brewing requires time. In this case, it will likely take half a regular season to do so. Yes, it does make for a boring summer. But unfortunately, we must wait.

    Because as I said earlier, patience isn't just a virtue, it's necessary. After all, how many years did Riley have to wait to prepare for this offseason's coup? How many years did Walsh prepare for his super-duo of Amare and Felton? A few months seems almost nothing compared to what their fans had to wait through.
     
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  2. Rookie34

    Rookie34 Member

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    Nice thinking, dude! I enjoyed reading this!
     
  3. Moonscope

    Moonscope Member

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    Best line of the article.

    As a whole, I do agree with you - Nicely written...

    As Morey always is saying - he is opportunistic.
     
  4. Chilly_Pete

    Chilly_Pete Contributing Member

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    Yup, everyone wants a splash in the off-season. But a splash for the sake of itself doesn't guarantee its a good move. We just have to be patient and make shrewd moves that will improve the team. Just getting Yao back is going to improve this team from last year.
     
  5. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    Patience is the key.

    Let the quarry come to you......

    DD
     
  6. Artie_Fufkin

    Artie_Fufkin Member

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    We want CP3 injured? :confused:
     
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  7. ima_drummer2k

    ima_drummer2k Contributing Member

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    Repped for the Spinal Tap reference in the screen name.
     
  8. Nero

    Nero Member

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    And preparedness.

    Because of the data constantly being collected and refined on pretty much every player out there, Morey is able to move fast, to be opportunistic, so as soon as a potential situation presents itself, Morey can check his data and come up with a real cost analysis, and decide very quickly whether or not it is something worth pursuing.

    I think it is this ability to think and move quickly, as much as anything else, which gives DM such an unfair advantage over everyone else, who by comparison seem to be moving in slow motion.
     
  9. REEKO_HTOWN

    REEKO_HTOWN I'm Rich Biiiiaaatch!

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    a little common sense never hurt no one. Good post.
     
  10. leebigez

    leebigez Contributing Member

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    Some people make chances and some wait on chances.
     
  11. Rocket4Life11

    Rocket4Life11 Contributing Member

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    Good things come to those who wait.
     
  12. Raven

    Raven Member

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    Patience, don't overpay, wait for the deadline, be a vulture. I've been saying those things for months.
     
  13. HowsMyDriving

    HowsMyDriving Member

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    as i mentioned in the morey thread, i very much agree with this. however, if we're going to try to cover all the bases here, there's more to it. the preparedness part of it is also vital to a GM's ability to actually take advantage of the opportunities when they present themselves.

    we throw around the term "asset" here when talking about players and picks, but an asset is only an asset if it has value at or above its cost. for example, chase budinger on a rookie scale contract is an asset because he performs above his cost. chase budinger at his current level of play, with a 10 million a year contract is not an asset, unless he has artificial value as an expiring. this was key to making the Landry trade with sacramento, as he was outperforming his contract. in a capped league, the key to success is getting the most production out of a limited amount of dollars. (as an aside, this is why Miami has so much to be excited about, as superstars almost always outplay their contracts, and they have three of them). in the case of the rockets though, this is a huge reason to be optimistic - the rockets don't just have a lot of good players, they have a lot of good assets. expiring vets? check. young players with potential? check. productive players on rookie contracts? check. productive vets on reasonable contracts? check.

    the key to making trades is for both sides to have something the other side wants. with the vast number of assets that morey has assembled, he's built a team that is both productive on the court and from which he could pluck a variety of different pieces to satisfy the needs of a trading partner. this is fairly unique among NBA teams. if a playoff team comes calling, he could give them a battier or ariza to help get them over the top. if a rebuilding team comes calling, he could give them one of our many upcoming draft picks. if a team with a young, developing core wants to trade, he can give them young, productive players. this versatility is a huge benefit when it comes to simplifying trades and making sure the rockets can deal with a large number of trading partners. this versatility gives morey a lot more options than most NBA teams have when the deals become available.

    this large number of options is key. opportunities must arise, certainly, but they must be opportunities that a) fit financially, b) match what your plan is for your team, c) you can serve the needs of the other team, and d) can be completed without being in a bidding war. by having tons of good contracts on the books, its much easier for the rockets to satisfy condition (a). by having a large number of versatile players, the rockets can accept many different types of star player without changing their system, meaning its easier, but not guaranteed, to satisfy condition (b). by having such a deep and versatile roster, its easier to satisfy condition (c) without destroying your own team in the process. by being one of very few teams that can say "no" to an ok deal while pursuing a great deal due to having more options than most other teams, you have satisfied condition (d).

    the final piece of this is something that is very rarely talked about, but critical given everything we've mentioned so far. the NBA has essentially three "trading seasons". the draft, the beginning of free agency, and the trade deadline. its almost a binary system, where during these three periods, there are TONS of deals available, and the rest of the time there are very few. being able to uniquely satisfy conditions a, b, c, and d above during these periods means that the rockets can justifiably and reasonably consider any and every deal that becomes available during these periods without having to act rashly on the first decent opportunity. we've all seen what happens when a team has assets of limited appeal - they end up taking 50 cents on the dollar for them. because the rockets can approach the 3 major trading periods with true assets, assets which can satisfy almost any team and any need, and assets which already form a reasonably complete roster, the rockets are always dealing from a position of strength. and that's how opportunities become imbalanced, and morey is more likely to come out of the deal with more.


    anyway, yes, we must wait for opportunity. but the reason for rockets fans to be optimistic is that if and when that opportunity arises, this team is uniquely and incredibly prepared to take advantage of it. let's cross our fingers.
     
  14. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

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    meh, AWESOME thread! Just recently we saw the "timing" issue come up with the Heat wanting to move Beasley. Charlotte wanted him and Toronto was working on the S&T of Bosh to Miami. Morey saw this, then DOVE IN and tried to extract Tyson Chandler from this deal. It didn't work because Toronto didn't want to take on salary of Andersen, and then the deal shifted to Minny. But again, another scenario where Morey saw a deal coming during a "timing" issue and dove in to try to extract some assets.

    Like meh, said, many times it is CONFLICT or TIMING that causes teams to HAVE to take 80 cents on the dollar. That's where you make VALUE trades. And that's why the TRADING DEADLINE is a key time as it is another timing issue.

    I am sure Morey and their staff keep an eye on ALL deals going on, and then if they can make the deal a 3 or 4 way trade to get something for them we do it. Like meh said, it is all about knowing what we have and being PREPARED to jump into trades at any time.
     
  15. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    Who do you suggest we take a chance on?
     
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  16. leebigez

    leebigez Contributing Member

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    Windows open and close quickly,ask adelman and now orlando. Either make the move to get in that window or rebuild.
     
  17. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

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    Want to add something else.....

    Right now (7/13), it appears the Bobcats are pulling out of the 3 team trade with their pieces Diaw/Chandler not going to Toronto for Jose Calderon/Evans etc. Bobcats want a PG BADLY and Jordan is having cold feet on Calderon.

    Bobcats are willing to move Chandler. If Morey wants Chandler, he can be proactive and try to look for PGs available that the Bobcats might want, and try to get another team involved in this trade. As an example, Minny is looking to move Ramon Sessions. Maybe the Bobcats want him. Maybe the Rockets could work something there.
     
  18. kpsta

    kpsta Contributing Member

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    Great, I'll go bang Granger's mother... and then blame it on Jeff Foster.
     
  19. djimi

    djimi Member

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    agreed totally. good thread, 5 stars for sure
     
  20. kpsta

    kpsta Contributing Member

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    We were told massive radio support... :(
     

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