He'll primarily be a defensive sub and pinch runner, but he'll still mix in a few starts, but only 1-2 in a week.
Yep. Baseball is a long season. I don't think Astros have the luxury of having a guy that won't play much as a 4th OF especially with Reddick having trouble against LHPs. Not sure what Astros do about it though.
I think that's a significant over-estimation on his number of starts/week... unless you're completely discounting Aoki as making the roster as well. Marisnick has had opportunity here... but he largely is what he is: No bat, all glove.
I'm not discounting Aoki making the roster. If Gattis plays catcher against a LHP, Marisnick will most likely be starting. He'll start any game Springer doesn't play the field (14 games last season).
Astros president Reid Ryan said the team will expand netting to the end of the dugouts at Minute Maid Park this year. Ryan said the netting will be about 12 feet high and run length of dugout. It will be lowered during BP for fans' access to players. ___________________________________________
That's still a scenario that requires additional variables to all line up. McCann can DH as well, and historically has hit lefties better than Marisnick has. Aoki has decent lefty splits as well. Beltran can play LF at MMP with ease. Marisnick's bat has to be worth it to put him in the lineup against lefties.
McCann isn't going to DH against LHP, despite him historically being fine against them. The drop off in defense isn't going to be worth the increase in offense.
I don't see why we should expect Marisnick to get less PA than he did last season. Assuming everybody stays healthy, this is how I'd forecast PA for 2017: Springer 700 Altuve 700 Correa 700 Bregman 700 (taking some of the PA White and Marwin got in addition to what he got last season) Beltran 550 (taking from the PA that were given to Tucker, Reed, Teoscar, and Kemp last season) Gurriel 500 (adding Valbuenas PA to what he got last season) Gattis 500 Reddick 400 (replacing Rasmus' PA) McCann 400 (replacing Castro) Marwin 300 Aoki 300 (replacing Gomez) Marisnick 300 (same as last season) White 200 All others 200
70% of Marisnick's PAs came with him in CF last season. Most of those now belong to Springer. Marisnick's bat makes it tough even to play him in CF. Without the opportunities to impact game defensively at CF, he's just a guy who can't hit.
But the drop-off in offense with Marisnick in any lineup is pretty significant compared to the other LF candidates (Aoki, Beltran)... with a minimal improvement in defense at that position (especially for home games). I agree that he's the only other guy on the roster who can handle CF... but how many teams out there employ a full-time backup simply for that reason? The Astros already have a 4th OF type.
Marisnick is better in CF than Springer. Springer is better than Reddick in RF. Reddick is a plus defender in LF. If you believe Marisnick's CF defense warrants playing time, it makes sense to play him since he won't he displacing a better player. The tradeoff isn't replacing Springer, it's the OF unit I listed above replacing Reddick/Springer/Aoki (or Beltran).
Marisnick is not definitively better than Springer in CF. Marisnick also does not have an MLB bat. His defense by himself is not going to outweigh his lack of production at the plate. Aoki, Reddick, Beltran's plate performance, compared to Jake... is a greater disparity vs. Jake's possible defensive contributions. In the end, he's a defensive replacement, pinch runner, and injury replacement.... which may land him at AAA to start the season if he still has options.
Hinch has implied Springer will not move over to RF for Marisnick by saying something like he doesn't want Springer to have his head hanging down on his way to RF. So the decision is Marisnick in RF, in LF, or pull Springer.
Marisnick may be my least favorite Astros...mostly because of the fawning over him from Astros Twitter. It's really not Marisnick's fault I feel that way, honestly. But you'd think he was Willie effing Mays out there.
Not against LHP. Marisnick is a vastly superior defender than Beltran or Aoki, but you also have to remember it isn't just LF in those games, but also RF because of Reddick.
Being a better defender doesn't help if you don't have the opportunities. A corner OF spot gets 20-35% less opportunities than CF. That's basically 20-35% of his value of the top when he doesn't have much to spare. Astros need someone that can backup CF and hit LHP. Marisnick is still below average against LHP...though not a dumpster fire as he is against RHP. Granted, I think Astros will play Marisnick more than I like.
Marisnick's offense against LHP is tolerable enough that his defense in CF makes him a capable player. He's been a better hitter than Reddick against southpaws over the last 3 years, by a comfortable margin actually. With the roster as is, he should clearly be starting against LHP (better hitter than Reddick, massively better defensively than Aoki/Beltran) If the Astros don't plan on playing Jake in CF, then yeah they should explore other options for the bench. All of his value is tied up in being able to run balls down at an elite clip, and if that's not being maximized it's hard to claim he's worth the roster spot. Teoscar may be a better answer for the RF/CF platoon against LHP.
Teoscar definitely has the potential to be an upgrade. He needs to improve what I saw on defense last year.
Teoscar is exactly who I am hoping forces his way on roster...but for whatever reason, I just am not hopeful. Defense wasn't great, but should be passable for spot starts in CF.
