Luhnow: I'm a Nigerian Prince, but due to having great pitching prospects, I am forced to trade McCullers. There is absolute zero injury risk to acquire this top arm. What say we talk trade. [Crickets] Luhnow: hello?
Now that McHugh is settled, Houston has $130.1M committed to its projected 25 man opening day roster, and projects for 45.1 fWAR. Forecasting out, I have them at $126M/48WAR in 2018, $111M/46WAR in 2019, $94M/43WAR in 2020, and $74M/42WAR in 2021. That's without any new free agents or extensions. 40 WAR is usually good enough for the playoffs and 45 is about where the real contenders start to separate themselves, so it looks like the Astros will be contenders for at least the next 5 seasons. Random thoughts: The current roster only features one glaring weakness, in LF where they will feature a Marisnick/Aoki platoon. Sure, they could stand to improve the rotation, 1B, and maybe add another lefty in the pen, but none of those profile as weaknesses compared to the rest of the league. Long term they've got a lot riding on Correa, Bregman, and McCullers. The only Prospects I have projected to a 'star' level of production are Martes, Tucker, and Whitley. Extending Keuchel and Altuve would solidify this roster as an elite team (barring catastrophic injuries or drops in performance) through 2021 (when McCullers and Correa will reach free agency). Extending those two would stretch payroll but if the deals are heavily backloaded it probably wouldn't be above their means. Other than LF there really aren't any short or medium term weaknesses. Long term, they don't appear to have a clear answer at catcher, where Stubbs or Rogers are the best prospects but neither project as stars. They will also need replacements for Keuchel (2018), Altuve (2019), and Springer (2020). Other players who will reach free agency before 2021 aren't being counted on as major contributors so they probably won't have a problem replacing them internally provided they don't decimate the farm in trades. Free agent schedule: 2017: Beltran, Gregerson 2018: Marwin, Gattis, Aoki, Keuchel, Morton, Sipp 2019: McCann, Altuve, McHugh, Fiers, Harris 2020: Gurriel, Reddick, Springer, Marisnick, Giles 2021: Correa, McCullers, Devenski
I'm pretty comfortable with what we have in LF (Beltran will factor in as well), though it would obviously be nice to improve upon. If White/Reed can earn the 1B job, it makes it so much easier as it will mean Gurriel will have to move to 3B or LF. 1B is a weakness. Gurriel only posted a .262/.292/.385 line. I expect him to be better than that, but will he be even average offensively at 1B? White has shown some promise, and AJ Reed still has the potential (as does Singleton, but that would be a miracle at this point).
Fangraphs projects Houston to have the 20th best 1B unit in baseball, with Gurriel projected for 1.4 fWAR and a 761 ops. But Houston is within .5 WAR of 14th and 24th. So I would say they project to be average to below average at 1B. Gurriel only had 137 PA last season in transitioning to an entirely different league in a new country after an extended layoff. He also only sported a .267 Babip, which should improve significantly, and with his high contact approach, babip will have a big impact on his production. He will also likely be a plus defender at 1B. With a little adjustment and assuming he is now fully acclimated to the States and MLB, I expect him to be a pretty good player, and I don't give Reed or White much chance of usurping him by opening day.
Starting pitching still scares me, and that Fangraphs projection doesn't help assuage those fears. 9th best in the majors would not be good enough to win the AL. The rest of the lineup looks like a World Series contender, however.
AVE = 8.73 Does this mean that we have the 9th best position players? That doesn't sound so great to me.
Not really how it works when talking about constructing a lineup. Astros really only have one spot where they are considered below average... which is awesome.
Your right of course regarding the math. But it might mean something in comparison to what other teams averages are.
Currently Houston is projected to have the 3rd best position player WAR and 9th best pitching WAR, with the total team WAR ranking 6th. Most teams don't have near the depth and balance that Houston does, especially not combined with the top end producers like Correa and Altuve.
I'm a bit surprised Springer is so (relatively) low, assuming he is CF. I can't see where the above comes from or how it is calculated ... is his impact spread across RF and CF? And, while I understand where he is now based on proven performance, I have a strong suspicion Bregman will pull our 3B ranking far above 12. I have a hard time seeing that as our second weakest position at the moment. No matter how you look at it, the Astros are stacked and balanced.
Assuming it is using their depth chart projections, Springer is set to play half his games at center (2.2 WAR) and half at right (1.7 WAR).
Regarding positions assignments by Fangraphs, I suspect the Astros will play Springer in only center, Musgrove gets more than 46 innings starting, and Beltran will play more in LF.
I think this will basically be true, and I hate that. The team hasn't really shown a desire to move their OFs around that much. Marisnick has played way too much LF for my taste. I expect Marisnick to only play CF this season when Springer isn't on the field. I expect that he'll be in LF if Springer and Reddick are playing.
Definitely agree that Marisnick should not play LF. I don't see much value in playing Marisnick anywhere, but center. Hoping Beltran is the LF such that Marisnick is only a defensive sub.
Unless Marisnick improves to be an above average on-base guy against lefties he should only be used as defensive substitute and pinch runner. Gurriell, Aoki, and Beltran should be your lf. Gurriell and hopefully Reed/White at first base or if neither of those pan out, Gonzalez at first when Gurriell is in left. Love how many options this team has. No sense in Marisnick being an every day player.
I don't think Marisnick will be playing a lot unless there's an injury somewhere. There's really no role for him on the everyday roster.
