At the bare minimum, we have to acquire an elite interior two-way player. We have to get at least one guy that is going to give us 20/10 every night and is going to play great D in the paint. If we simply had that one guy to add to Camby and everything else we currently have, it would push us up to top 4 in the West. Just one elite interior presence. Ultimately, we want to upgrade everywhere it is possible. But the biggest upgradable position is......Yao's position. We simply cannot go into next season with Camby/Dally/Scola/Patterson as our big man rotation. It won't work. Once we get one elite interior player, we can work on upgrading the other positions to more elite two-way players. That's why guys like Martin and Scola don't fit. They need to be surrounding elite two-way players because they are not. They are specialists.
:grin:. tiny tank. but is this plan? Stink it up. Beat huge odds for the number one pick. Have top guy there. Make that pick. Him not bust. Him not break (missed that one last time). Build and prosper. Tough to do. My point was simply that the Rockets have had a disproportionate number of near superstars since 1984. They haven't been building around Shandon Anderson (remember him?). So....yeah....go young, don't overpay the old guys, stay with smart contracts...but ya gotta bide your time too. Complete. Develop. Prepare. And strike only when the opportunity is there.
Exactly. People are acting like we gave Dalembert a Matt Maloney-esque contract. The very fact that we have flexibility and options going into this offseason is a good sign, IMO.
I think you misunderstood what I said. So I'll break it down to make it easier. If Morey wants to tank this summer by trading away all our vets, he would be saying exactly what he's saying right now. If Morey wants to build upon this current roster, he would be saying exactly what he's saying right now. Therefore, one cannot draw any conclusion from his words because he's forced to say the same words regardless of the franchise's direction.
I didnt want to create a whole new thread for this, but I wanted to give some insight in what I think will happen this Summer as it alludes to past History of this front office. Future gives reference to the past- I think the mentality and focus of the Rockets front office all circles back to the Gasol trade as an example of what they really are trying to do here. Lets forget about Gasol for a minute as a player and focus on the process which is sure to be repeated this summer in a similar deal they will most likely be gunning for. What was the Gasol trade, & what did it mean for the Rockets- Stripping down your Core players in trade for a piece or two that makes more sense going forward. Sort of the deal that sets up the next deal. The Rockets completely stripped away their best two players at the time (Scola, Martin) for Gasol which then setup the next deal which was to sign Nene, which was then to go after an elite wing player, etc., etc. The goal here was never to build around Scola & Martin in the first place. Those were considered complementary pieces. While Gasol in some aspects wouldn't necessarily make this team a contender automatically, it would then setup the Nene signing, which would set them up to target a all-star calliber wing player. Something that is much easier to find then an all star Big Man. This model followed the Celtics Big 3 model to the Tee. I believe this is what Morey will try to do again but possibly with different players in mind. This is the most likely outcome for this team. Option A.- This will always be to trade for the big superstar Dwight Howard type. Its a wild hope that the front office has to realize is a longshot to happen in the modern era of superstar moves made in the NBA when in the last year of their contracts giving the star the ability to dictate where they want to go. Option B.- This will be to make the big splash on draft day to aquire a future star through the draft. Morey always says in interviews that those moves are the most difficult because teams try to years get bad enough to get in the top 5 that they rarely give up those picks even though most of them will never end up being franchise players. However, you have seen him gun for this more times than not with the Rubio trade, and the Cousins trade that he was close to pulling off. Even though this isn't really Morey's bread and butter, you know have to know its something he's intrigued with. Option C. - This is the most likely of scenarios for the Rockets which is what I just stated as the Celtics model. Just keep in mind the careers of Ray Allen, Pierce, and Garnett before they formed the big three. Yes, they are all Hall of Famers now, but other than Garnett I wouldn't necessarily have claimed them as Superstars at the time of the trade. They were three all-star calliber player that fit their team system set in motion by their front office. The guy who had a hand in setting up that trade none other than Morey himself. More than likely this is the type of team Morey has in mind, and IMO its very achievable. What are the Rockets going to move, and who are they going to get back?- This is the big question looming. One thing is for certain, just like last year, your going to have to be ready to move out your favorite players and assets. The players and pieces involved are going to be a shocker. They always are. This means Parsons, Scola, & the upcoming draft picks are all on the table. Lowry will be an easy move due to his rise in the first half of the season. He's the one piece I wouldn't be shocked if he stays or goes either way. Who are they going to trade for? Who knows. All I know is its going to be a surprise either way, and the first trade might not make sense at all. All we know is that the Rockets will make a move a player that will catch all of us off guard. Its probably not going to be a Dwight Howard type, but this is the offseason where Morey will finally be able to make this move without Stern getting in the way. This is the mentality of the Rockets front office. Blowing up the team doesn't mean tanking. I believe Morey will not force the franchise to tank under any circumstances, but you better damn well be prepared for him to blow it up and start over this Summer.
I disagree. I think Morey would not say anything different. Even saying the Rockets is going to rebuild is stupid from a trading perspective. What are teams going to offer the ROckets for Scola, KMart, Lowry, etc. when the Rockets tell everyone they're tan...err... rebuilding? Not much. There's absolutely no upside to telling anyone we're going to rebuild right now. 3 months into the offseason with Dwight Howard and DWill going elsewhere? Perhaps Morey would at that time. But certainly not today with the season just ending.
I really felt that was the direction Morey was going to take after missing out on Gasol, but no we signed the Bear. I hope we don't make the same mistake again. Anyways what are you doing out of the hangout?
Why? I agree that no team would admit tanking. But plenty of teams are openly "rebuilding." Portland is openly rebuilding. Minnesota was openly rebuilding a few years ago. The Knicks were openly rebuilding post-Isiah. Rebuilding is not a taboo. Tanking is.
There was no time to make any major directional changes after the deal fell through. Major deals like that take months to come around. The Dalembert signing was to appease McHale and Les. They obviously thought the team they were going into the season with would be better than most the bottom feeders anyways so it was better to try and throw Dally in the mix at a low risk cost that didnt hurt the future and see if he can help out. It didnt work out, and there was very little risk involved. Dally is now a nice trade asset.
I think if we would have played the season with Hill as our center we'd have a top 10 pick right now. Dally was beasting it up at the start of the season, then he came back to reality.
Tanking myths: 1) Tanking means you don't try. Actually you do try but you don't apply bandaids to mortal wounds. We should not have signed Dalembert and let Thabeet sink or swim. You do try but you give minutes to young players. What good did sitting Morris for a year do to help him or the franchise? 2) Tanking only lasts a year. It most likely will last 8 or more years. It would take about 3-4 to finally get that player(s) you need to make a run and another 3-4 to let them mature and build around. 3) Tanking if for losers. Tanking from the beginning might be for losers but what most here want is rebuilding from the ground up. Our foundation is severly cracked. To insist nothing is wrong and just keep building is foolish. People that want to "tank" want to win it all not just a few extra games so we can get embarrassed in the first round. 4) Tanking means we have to be the biggest loser and be a worse team than the Bobcats. You don't have to be the biggest loser to rebuild. Of course the higher the pick the better the odds but I think those teams in the top 5 have decent shot at getting a building block. Sac got Cousins at 5. Bull got Rose at 5. Miami got Wade at 5. There are many examples where 5 turned out to be better than 1. 5) Tanking means you'll have no fan support. Personally I think you'll have more fan support when someone takes off over throwing Dalembert, Martin and Co out on the court. Look at Linsanity. I think he was the Tim Tebow for basketball but he put fans in the seats, their team on TV and more excitement in the air - even if for a moment. 6) Tanking means you won't have any FA wanting to sign with us. I really don't think we need to discuss this but I will. We are not getting any FAs to sign with us now unless we offer them more money than any other team will offer and that person has very limited options. I dare say we will still have that option of getting those Dalembert FAs even if we lost 50+ games. However, once we have that Wade type player, then I think we greating increase our odds of getting our team back on FA's short list.
I don’t think we’re interviewing for the job. And even if I was, and was advocating a tank, I’d of course note that if said tank hasn’t achieved what I say it will in [x] years, I should be fired. But the same is true if you’re NOT a proponent of the tank. Whatever course you choose, you have to show progress. I think Morey has all the tools to be a great GM. But he’s on a very short leash nonetheless… the team has shown no progress under his direction. It’s not once in a lifetime. Almost every year franchise changing players are selected in the upper lottery. They’re not all Hakeem level, but they can nonetheless be multiple all-star franchise changers. True, you can also swing and miss, badly. That comes down to scouting and management, though. There’s a reason why the better organizations seem to draft better. Ignoring the fact that we traded Francis for TMac (and as such, it’s a little disingenuous to include them both on there as if we “tanked” and ended up with 3 awesome lotto picks), a second round playoff appearance is meaningfully better than any other season the Rocket’s have had in what, the last 15 years. I’ve seen very few people suggest that. Rather, I’ve seen many note that of all years to tank, this was the one. Not that it means in 2012/2013 we expect said tank to catapult the Rockets into contention. Just that of all years to start the process, now was the year, really. I personally would expect a competently run tank process to take 5 years. Is that a long time? Yes. But it’s the Sonic/Thunder path, which is about as good as can be expected. One or two seasons of complete crap. One or two seasons of enjoying your newfound talent, knowing that said talent is definitely improving and pointing you in the right direction. One or two seasons of early playoff appearances, hopefully getting better each year, and then championship aspirations. The biggest hurdle to this timeline is the start. Meaning those first two years getting the right players. Again, why many thought this was the perfect year to start. You don’t have to win the lottery to get franchise changing talent. But you do need to be near the top of the draft and to draft wisely. I know this by doing exactly what you suggest – looking back through draft histories. We’ve been mediocre only for a few years and this is already happening. What free agents have signed in Houston for the last 25 years? Why do people keep holding out hope for this? The Rockets (Houston) is not a free agent mecca. The biggest FA splash in the Rockets history was a disaster anyway (Scottie Pippen). Surely you’re not lamenting the fact that we won’t be able to sign more Trevor Ariza’s? The Rockets will sign their fair share of average free agents the same way other teams do, by offering the most money to that particular player. I think you’re overstating the number of teams. The teams I can think of are led by the Bobcats, and include the Kings, Raptors, Clippers and Nets. But even those squads have a track record over the last 10 years at least comparable to the Rockets – meaning they’ve had a couple years of playoffs, maybe a 1st round win. So the Rockets mediocrity approach, and the other teams’ regular lottery approach, on the whole has produced the same results. Alternatively, a compelling number of teams have gone to the lottery and climbed out. The Sonics/Thunder are the obvious recent example, but Orlando, Indiana, New Orleans, Atlanta, Memphis, Denver, Chicago Minnesota.. even the Clippers (though agree they did finally get “lucky”) have used high lotto picks over the last 10 years to create periods of consistent high performance. Maybe too early on a team like Minnesota, but I think they are clearly pointed in the right direction. These are just recent examples. It ignores the Spurs reign – luck was clearly involved, but the entirety of all that is great with that franchise was born out of a “tank” season. It ignores teams that used high lotto picks to improve – recent Celtics. It ignores teams that have had the opposite of luck – bad luck – principally Portland, who positioned themselves and drafted wisely, and got screwed with injuries (I was a KD over Oden fan before the draft, but a healthy Oden would have been a very serviceable player and a great fit for that team). Basically, I think a factual look at the evidence would show that indeed, “tanking” is the better approach. As others have mentioned, I believe Morey himself has noted this. On the contrary, I’d rather NJ keep their pick. Dwight isn’t coming to Houston. If he is, it is a 1 year rental. He doesn’t want to play here. If his opting in at the last minute doesn’t tell you that, what will. That being the case, I’d rather the Trailblazers not benefit from a high draft pick in a stocked draft.
I feel where you are coming from, but still don't understand the reasoning. The plan we have is to acquire tradeable pieces to eventually make the big trade we need. I don't understand why so many people are hell bent on this trade happening immediately. If a tank job takes at minimum 3-5 just to find your man to build around, why can't the strategy Morey is taking get the same amount of time and patience? Only a few game changers come on the market from year to year, I want one next year just as much as the next Rockets fan, but I will not be upset if we have to play 3 more years of 14th pick basketball if on that 4th year the stars align and we make the trade for our guy. I know it's not how fans are accustomed to seeing a team grow, but it's obviously the plan we are going for and I personally don't think it's a bad one.
We just completed our 3rd Yao-less season, 2nd in which Yao was written out of the picture entirely. We've been collecting assets for about 3 years now. We already made a big trade once. So, it's reasonable to expect something to happen in the next year.
You'll be okay having the 14th (or 13th) pick 6 years in a row if in year 7 we make a trade that gets us something akin to Pau Gasol in his early 30's? Even if that gets us more of a Dwight than a Pau, I am not okay with that. Tanking/rebuilding (whatever you call it, doesn't matter) is more preferably from my perspective because it gives me something more tangible to root for and build upon. Especially if done right. It gives me a process. Waiting and holding out hope for a trade gives me waiting and holding out hope for a trade, being frustrated time and time again during the regular season as the team fools me again into thinking maybe they're closer than I think, and suffering through another 3 or more years of why this 14th pick is the savior followed by why he sucks and why he isn't getting more playing time and why is he playing in the D-league and why you should be able to package him with a future pick for Lebron James. See the difference?
You kind of made my point with your first paragraph. Tanking into the lottery doesn't produce results much better than what Morey has produced without tanking. If you get lucky and land Durant, yes, you get to go the Thunder route. If not you can be like the Sixers, the Pacers, The Hawks, Memphis, etc. and you can be mediocre because of your draft picks and then in a few years of non-title competition because you managed to draft a pretty good team but didn't get a superstar you will be right back where you started. Needing to tank to start the process over. It's been a very small sample size for Morey since the Yao/McGrady era ended. You are talking about tanking for a 5 year period yet you think 2-3 years of post Yao/McGrady Moreyball style rebuilding is early enough to say it has failed?
Aside from that little incident with the iceberg, I believe that Capt. Smith (Morey) did one hell of a job - almost as good as the one Brownie did in New Orleans 7 years ago.
