Because it hasn't really changed much? The Democrats were never likely to take the Senate. It was going to take a situation similar to 1994 for the Democrats to take the Senate. Most of the "toss up" incumbents were Democrats in states that are lean Republican like Dakota, Missouri and Indiana. In 2018 the Democrats are defending 26 seats and the Republicans only 9...... the numbers were always long against the Democrats, which is why I smiled when I heard the Democrats best strategy was to stall the Kennedy replacement vote until after the midterm... it just never was a viable option when you really look at the forecasts. The area that the Democrats could make up some ground is in the House and the Democrats odds of taking the House have only gone up since Kavanaugh. Is it possible there is a blue or red wave? Sure but not too likely as this is a heavily divided nation at this point. 2020 will be the "big one". The Republicans will be defending 22 seats to the Democrats 12 and the Presidential election also tends to attract more voters as well. So we could possibly see a flip of the WH and Senate (far from certain).
I think both the House and Senate have moved towards the GOP in recent weeks. The House is more interesting given how competitive the map is. From what I've heard about internal polling, Republicans have improved on the generic ballot. Silver wrote a good piece on how different the House and Senate landscapes are this cycle. Worth a skim: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-house-and-senate-are-moving-in-opposite-directions/
Possibly worse..... but they expected to lose senate seats just based on the simple match. They could lose a large share of the tight races and drop 6-7 senate seats, but most likely they lose 3-5 as they expected. The Senate likely will not be a Democratic majority for sometime as even in 2020, most of the Republican spots up for re-election are in solid Republican areas. The House is the area that the Democrats expect to make gains and hope to take the majority and have a good chance of that.
I know what the RCP Average and 538 say, but that's not what I've heard from RNC/DNC internal polling. Both House and Senate have moved towards the GOP.
That's not really true, the Democrats are still likely to hold on to the house, but what once looked like it could be a blue wave is looking more like a blue splash. There was a time not long ago where the Democrats could have feasibly picked up 50 seats, now it could be 25 or less.
It would have the economy of Bolivia and the politics of DPRK -- that, I can tell you. It would get tired of winning.
But the south would be happy, they can run their conservative libertarian heaven anyway they see fit.
Nothing would happen? I think you missed the point which is voter suppression efforts would go to another level. A certain segment of the southern population would have a big problem with that.
It seems as if there's a theme during these mid-terms, several Democrats have had their races destroyed when the people found out what they truly believe. We've seen it with O'Rourke in Texas and we're seeing it in Arizona with Kyrsten Sinema who just a few months back looked to be running away with the race up by 7 points....until comments about her talking **** about the Arizona people calling them "crazy" and comments saying that stay at home mom's are leaching off of their husbands. As a result, Martha McSally has taken the lead in polls and seems to have all the momentum heading into the election. A similar situation is happening in Missouri where incumbent Claire McCaskill trails after comments about her true beliefs when it comes to gun control were leaked. Just a few months ago she led in polls by a few points, now she trails. Democrats are going to have to get better at hiding who they truly are if they want to win elections
Appears sadly to be a requirement for politics. Got to respect those who actually tell the truth though. I know I will hear about national aspirations, but I was proud of Beto in the debates.
I don't personally dislike him, it's just that he has wacky political views that I can't support. I do think it was good that he finally admitted who he was and spelled out what he stood for, but that's not enough to overcome the negatives associated with his political stances. In fairness though, he was kind of forced into it, before that he was content to run a race based on a culturally appropriated nickname and what amounted to motivational speeches devoid of actual policy.
http://insider.foxnews.com/2018/10/...ter-portland-tucker-carlson-ann-coulter-react Just shameful, anyone condemn this behavior on the left? Anyone.....? Midterms are starting to get interesting, thank you!
When it comes to Portland it's almost impossible to know what is real and what is a parody of the typical leftist protester for propaganda purposes. The footage of this guy running his mouth like that only to take off sprinting the second he was confronted by the Patriot Prayer guys makes it seem like BS.......but that kind of thing happens all the time for real so it's just impossible to tell. What I'm saying is essentially the leftist protester types are beyond parody at this point. I think it's called Poe's Law and it's fully in effect.
Piers Morgan weighs in: Democrats are heading for a midterms disaster I look at the Democrats today and see a Party that’s learned absolutely nothing about how to beat Trump. And I see a President who’s growing stronger by the day. Trump’s become a political Godzilla, crushing everyone who dares challenge him and bulldozing his way through an agenda that is beginning to pay real dividends. More at the link
Wow, who would have thought Morgan would be one of the few leftist who actually understands whats happening. Of course thankfully this will fall on deaf ears to the perpetually outraged left.
