I expect......

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by basketballholic, Jan 2, 2018.

  1. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    The opponent gets that so-called "extra shot" with or without the turnover. Instead of adding 1.17, you should be adding (expected points allowed after a turnover - expected points allowed after non-turnover possession). Your calculation for the cost of a turnover is approx. 1 point too high.
     
  2. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    As I told you before, this isn't up for debate. Your math is wrong. You are double counting.

    See how durvasa suggests the same formula that I gave you ... notice the required Subtraction.

    basketballholic, take notice of your double counting. You are just going to continue getting this response from stats ppl when you say turnovers create extra possessions, and further lose stat cred. Certainly don't say it to Morey when you tweet him.

    ...oops, or have you already told Morey that turnovers create extra possessions.
     
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  3. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    well i called it
     
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  4. Vienna Calling

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    For a guy that wants to come across as knowledgable so bad, this basketballholic guy makes some pretty obvious and dumb mistakes...this is pretty embarassing actually.
     
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  5. Chamillionaire

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    Haha this **** made me laugh cause it's so true.
     
  6. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    reminds me of harden
     
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  7. basketballholic

    basketballholic Contributing Member

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    (All data in this post from nba.com)

    This season:

    Hardens offensive rating sans Paul 113.4
    Paul's offensive rating sans Harden
    112.01

    Hardens defensive rating sans Paul
    104.47
    Paul's defensive rating sans Harden
    98.5
     
    #227 basketballholic, Jan 11, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2018
  8. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    Wow that's pretty awful offense without harden.

    In any case, that's what was expected, better defense but worse offense.

    However this doesn't adjust for opponents and injuries
     
  9. vlaurelio

    vlaurelio Contributing Member

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    yep woulda been 60 wins if not more harden and his dumb mistakes
     
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  10. basketballholic

    basketballholic Contributing Member

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    By the way, the last 5 games without Harden, have been played at a higher pace than our games without Harden. (That may be a function of lower turnovers.)
     
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  11. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    Turnovers increase pace of the game.
    • And fwiw: per nbawowy our team turnovers per 100 have remained the same. 13.7 up to Dec 31st, 13.6 since.
    • Looks like Harden's turnovers are transferring to other players.
    • Paul's TOs per 100 have increased from 3.6 to 6.0 in the 5 games of Harden's absence. Harden is 5.6 for season.
    Five games is too small of a sample size for Pace, imo, as it is so affected by opponent's willingness also to play fast. That said, I would figure any sustained Pace increase is likely due to Paul increasing tempo and/or the opponents attacking our depleted bench at a faster pace. It's no secret that MDA and Harden say he plays at a more deliberate tempo to Nash, so not surprising Paul would play faster, too.
     
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  12. basketballholic

    basketballholic Contributing Member

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    Turnovers are lower in last five games.
     
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  13. Liberon

    Liberon Rookie

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    Gordon is fine as well as Ariza and Green etc etc... They can all spot up plays. It's up to D'Antoni to put together good runs and adjust accordingly via rotations which he kind of sucks at.
     
  14. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    But are turnovers still worth 2.5pts?

    That’s the real question.

    Curious to know the answer, because you seamlessly avoided that topic and tried switching gears to talk about other things.
     
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  15. Beardaholic13

    Beardaholic13 Member

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    I dont think its the TOs but it might be. CP gets the offense started much faster than James, thats what ive noticed being the biggest difference between the 2. We are a different team when we have a lead.

    This is what i want to see changed the most. In the second half of most games we dont start running the offense until there is about 12 seconds left, so we waste half the shot clock on bringing the ball up and getting set. That has to change.
     
  16. basketballholic

    basketballholic Contributing Member

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    Yes. You have to understand time of possession. Don't have the time nor the interest to lay all that out. Each person can make up their own mind.
     
  17. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    I know you wouldn’t cede that your wrong.

    Good ole _holic stocking to his guns.
     
  18. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    Don't know what to tell you. My numbers were from nbawowy, and I've triple checked. But yeah, I see NBA stats disagrees with per 100 turnovers.

    Anyhoot, not worth arguing, suffice it to say it's negligible if any difference, and certainly less TOs does not increase Pace; it's the exact opposite.

    Lols...resorting to obfuscation. It's clear you don't understand the statistical definition of "possession".

    It's not up for debate. One of the cardinal sins of stats is to double count. That's what your 2.5 pts / TO does. It's like you've listened to announcers say "that's a 4 pt swing" and believe that OKs double counting. It doesn't.

    The *only* time a turnover results in a possession the opponenets otherwise wouldn't have gotten is at the end of a quarter.

    case closed.

    This is why ppl have trouble with you, because you dig in and double down vs moving on from a clear error. It's OK to say "oops, you guys are right."
     
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  19. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    yule-c
     
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  20. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Jesus this is painful to read. Just admit your wrong and move on. We all are wrong sometimes...

    I thought Marvin Williams would become a top 10 player eventually. He isn’t and never will be. I was wrong..... it is okay to be wrong.
     
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