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Hollinger's NBA Power Rankings (UPDATED DAILY)

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by gfab-babyboi, Jan 25, 2007.

  1. gfab-babyboi

    gfab-babyboi Contributing Member
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    In addition to Marc Stein's weekly Power Rankings, ESPN.com now has daily Power Rankings, based on a formula devised by NBA analyst John Hollinger.

    The Hollinger Power Rankings are updated automatically and fresh each day.

    For Hollinger's full explanation of his new Power Rankings, click here. For Hollinger's FAQ, click here.

    The Hollinger Power Rankings have one other important new feature -- comments by you, the NBA fans of SportsNation.

    Tell us how you think your team is doing this season, and we'll use the best comments in each day's rankings.

    Just click here to comment.

    The new Hollinger NBA Power Rankings -- always on, always live, updated every night. Enjoy.


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    HOLLINGER RANK RATING RECORD MARGIN SOS REC (L10) MAR (L25%) SOS (L25%) STREAK DIV CONF
    4 4444 105.751 26-16 +4.86 .511 6-4 +2.91 .600 Won 1 3rd 6th
    Last Game: @SA, W 90-85 | Next 3: POR (Fri) | PHI (Mon) | SEA (Wed)
    Full Schedule | Injuries | Transactions | Hollinger Stats
    Davao City, Philippines
    Winning not only once but twice in the Alamo City is something not to be taken for granted. What amazes me even more is what will happen when Yao comes back and the Rockets continue their tough play.



    ROCKETS RANKED 4..... thats some ESPN LOVE
     
  2. Impper

    Impper Contributing Member

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    It's a statistical ranking, which would pretty much be immune from ESPN's purely subjective analysis.

    That said, these stats don't really say much, if anything, other than who has winning records
     
  3. forchette49

    forchette49 Contributing Member

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    Do the Rockets just have the 4th best record in the league or...?
     
  4. gfab-babyboi

    gfab-babyboi Contributing Member
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    No, we have the 6th best record in the league. I posted this cuz I know I would like to see how we rank daily
     
  5. m_cable

    m_cable Contributing Member

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    But the fact that it includes strength of schedule and margin of victory gives a better sense of how well teams are playing, so it's a nice tool to take a look at.
     
  6. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    I'll be subjective: We should be ranked ahead of the Spurs. I appreciate objective analysis, but common sense should also be applied. When the Rockets bring their "A" game defense (even without Yao), very few teams can handle us.
     
  7. Ehsan

    Ehsan Member

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    Rockets - Yao for a month - TMac for 8 games are 4th best in the league (they have the 6th best record).

    What you can definitely say is that we have had a tough schedule (second half will be easier) and margin of victory has always been a strong indicator of whether a team is underachieving, overachieving, or performing just right. As an example, these people were predicting that the Jazz wouldn't be super-hot for very long and would eventually slip considerably.

    This is definitely my favorite ranking. It tells me that we can win more games in the second half than we did in the first half (assuming we are at least as healthy as the first half)... Which means more than 50 wins.

    If we can snatch 55 wins (we need to go 30-11 the rest of the way) I think we can take the 3rd seed in the West away from San Antonio.
     
  8. Mordo

    Mordo Contributing Member

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    Link:
    ESPN Hollinger's NBA Power Rankings


    Explaining our new daily NBA Power Rankings
    By John Hollinger

    By now, you might have noticed a new item on ESPN.com's NBA page -- a daily version of our power rankings.

    These rankings are based on a formula I devised, and they are updated every day, automatically.

    I created these rankings to give a quick assessment of all 30 teams so far in the season, since sometimes the standings can be misleading in this department.


    HOLLINGER'S SECRET FORMULA
    RATING = (((SOS-0.5)/0.037)*0.67) + (((SOSL10-0.5)/0.037)*0.33) + 100 + (0.67*(MARG+(((ROAD-HOME)*3.5)/(GAMES))) + (0.33*(MARGL10+(((ROAD10-HOME10)*3.5)/(10)))))


    SOS = Season Win/Loss percentage of team's opponents, expressed as a decimal (e.g., .500)

    SOSL10 = Season Win/Loss percentage of team's last 10 opponents, expressed as a decimal (e.g., .500)

    MARG = Team's average scoring margin

    MARGL10 = Team's average scoring margin over the last 10 games

    HOME = Team's home games

    HOMEL10 = Team's home games over the last 10 games

    ROAD = Team's road games

    ROADL10 = Team's road games over the last 10 games

    GAMES = Team's total games

    Here is some background to help as you look through the rankings each day.

    Scoring margin
    One of my goals was to create a system that told us more about a team's quality than the standings do.

    So instead of winning percentage, the rankings uses points scored and points allowed, which are actually better indicators of a team's quality than wins and losses.

    This might not sound right at first, but studies have shown scoring margin to be a better predictor of future success than a team's win-loss record. Thus, scoring margin is a more accurate sign of a team's quality.

    That explains why, for instance, Phoenix is No. 1 right now even though Dallas has a better record -- the Suns have the best scoring margin in basketball.

    Conversely, it explains why Miami is No. 24 even though the Heat are close to .500.

    Strength of schedule
    Yes, this matters in the NBA, too. This effect is not as profound in the pro game as in the college game, because the 30 NBA teams are more evenly matched, but it still affects a team's results.

    This comes into play during the season and even at the end of the season. For instance, an Eastern Conference team like Boston (easiest schedule so far) will play a softer schedule this season than a Western Conference team like Houston (toughest schedule so far). In fact, the teams with the nine toughest schedules so far are in the West.

    Recent performance
    Another key variable in the formula is recent performance, which I included for two reasons.

    First, it stands to reason that more recent games are a more valid indicator of how strong a team is currently.

    Second, I wanted these rankings to follow the model of Marc Stein's "human" power rankings, on the site each Monday, in which a team's recent play is a huge factor.

    To accomplish this, I weigh a team's full-season results by two-thirds, and their most recent games by another one-third, so that the overall ranking gives a greater weight to recent games.

    You're probably wondering at this point what I mean by "recent." It varies depending on where we are in the season.

    For the first 40 games of the year, it just means a team's past 10 games.

    From that point forward, however, it's the most recent 25 percent of their schedule. The net result is that, after the first 40 games, a team's most recent 25 percent of their schedule will account for 40 percent of their ranking.

    The weighing of recent performance explains why Toronto is ranked No. 9 even though the Raps are under .500 -- their scoring margin in the past 10 games is a robust +5.0.

    Similarly, Golden State has fallen to No. 23 thanks to a -6.1 margin in its last 10 games.

    Home and road
    The final variable here is home and road games.

    In each game, a team's scoring margin is adjusted by the 3.5-point advantage we expect (and by "we," I mean the Vegas books, of course) the home team to have in a game between otherwise equal opponents.

    This has a bit of an impact at this point in the year because some teams will have large home-road disparities.

    Sacramento, for instance, has played a league-low 15 road games, so the Kings are No. 19 despite solid victory margin and strength of schedule numbers.

    And Philadelphia, with a league-low 14 home games, is higher than some might expect at No. 26.

    Caveats
    Since this is an entirely automated ranking, you'll notice certain "human" factors missing.

    For instance, the method doesn't know yet that Shaq is about to come back for Miami, or that the Nuggets have been playing without Carmelo Anthony for 15 games.

    Along the same lines, it doesn't take into account injuries, trades, controversial calls or any other variables -- just the scores, please.

    Nonetheless, it can be very useful because it allows us to see what the landscape looks like when we remove our usual filters.

    We hope you enjoy our new daily power rankings.
     
    #8 Mordo, Jan 25, 2007
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2007
  9. aussiejack

    aussiejack Member

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    nba power rankings have us at 3rd!!!! :eek: ...and we have the 6th best record...i cant believe the rest of the league is finally realising our potential...
     
  10. ClutchCityReturns

    ClutchCityReturns Contributing Member

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    This says we have had the toughest schedule so far in the entire NBA. That makes me quite happy.
     
  11. Ehsan

    Ehsan Member

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    Rockets have played less home games (18) than anyone in the league but Philadelphia. Meaning, they have played more road games than anyone in the league but Philadelphia.

    That alone should be good enough to net us more than 25 wins in the second half.

    We are 26-16...

    We have 40 games to go, 23 of which are at home. If you take our winning % at home and multiply by the number of home games it says we'll win 16.6 out of 23 home games. Which leaves 17 road games, and if you do the same thing again, we have another 9.2 games. In total that's just over 25. Let's say it's 25.

    So assuming the actual opponents in the second half are as good as the first half (based on current records, they are not), and our health in the last 40 games is the same as first 42 (Yao, T-Mac, Snyder, Bonzi injuries) we are on track to win 51.8 games. Let's say 51 or 52 games.

    I think our chances of winning 55 are pretty good after breaking down the schedule in detail.
     
  12. magnetik

    magnetik Contributing Member

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    I think there are a couple of teams that have tougher schedule... but they are bottom dwellers anyway.
     
  13. HTownTmac1

    HTownTmac1 Member

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    http://www.nba.com/powerrankings/

    3 Houston 26-16 - Great players rise their game up against great competition. Such was the case on Jan. 24 when T-Mac's 37 points were more effective than Duncan's 37 in a Rockets road win


    Here are the updated rankings from Nba.com as well ..... i guess the sports world is startin to show some appreciation for the hard work we are accomplishing without Yao! :D
     
  14. blazer_ben

    blazer_ben Rookie

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    What McGrady has done in yao's abscence breathtaking. just magnaficent.words cant describe how proud of i am of Tracy. McGrady has led us through our toughest stretch of the season in scheduel wise. . not only have we comeout even, we've won around 70% of those games. truly MVP calibare play and leaderhip by The best all round player in the League ny Mr Tracy McGrady.
    From the game yao wentout and the game tracy returned, we've played 8 out of those 15 games on the road. We've won in places like Chicago( dallas lost to the bulls in chicago last night) Denver ans San Antonio. to mention we had dallas on the ropes in dallas due to tracy and he's sheer brillance. we've smashed the likes utah and the lakers at home. in that stretch he has avge almost 30 points 7 boards and 8 assists. those numbers are insane only the likes of McGrady can stepup like that.
     
  15. The Hungarian Rocket

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    "Houston (toughest schedule so far)" :eek:
     
  16. JeopardE

    JeopardE Contributing Member

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    Houston leapfrogs San Antonio for the #3 spot.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerranking

    @The Hungarian Rocket: Yes, as of now we have had the toughest schedule of any team in the NBA so far. On the other hand, the Suns and the Lakers have had two of the easiest schedules. From here on out we get a lot of cupcakes...that's why there's no doubt in my mind that we will be ahead of LA when all is said and done. It is even possible that we could make a huge surge, overtake the Spurs and gain 3rd seed in the West (which would mean an almost certain 1st round showdown with the #6 Lakers).
     

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