Harden's MVP probability reaches historical peak, per BBR

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by James.B.H, Nov 17, 2017.

  1. James.B.H

    James.B.H Member

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    One of the most well known sports stats website, basketball reference(BBR), has a so called MVP Award Tracker, which is basically a machine learning model that takes an MVP candidate's stats and W/L% as input, and outputs his chance of winning MVP. It is updated everyday in the following link: https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

    Harden is ranking No.1 with a probability of 71.7% to win MVP if the season ends today, which is a historically high number. As a comparison, Steph Curry, the unanimous MVP of the 2015-2016 season, had a projected 69.6% probability to win MVP that year after they won 73 games by this model.

    Among the 8 most used advanced stats, Harden is leading the NBA in 6 of them: PER(2), Gmsc(2), WS(1), WS/48(1), BPM(1), VORP(1), RPM(1), WINS(1). He is having an amazing year.
     
    #1 James.B.H, Nov 17, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2017
  2. J Sizzle

    J Sizzle Member

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    Does this tracker factor in narratives?

    Because that's what matters
     
  3. Mr Chuck Norris

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    Yeah but does he average 10 rebounds?
     
  4. Richie_Rich

    Richie_Rich Member

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    Where's the metric that says Kyrie and Giannis are both Nike family members and therefore advanced stats are obsolete :eek:

    @DonKnock
     
  5. vlaurelio

    vlaurelio Contributing Member

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    @swyyyguy mavsprick @Progs and other haters

    confirmed mavs fans on suicide watch

    [​IMG]

    will pay for bad news or stats about the rockets
     
  6. Mathrocker

    Mathrocker Member

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    He wont win it lol. Media has too much pride.

    Ever since they didnt even give him 3rd team all NBA they have been rooting against him. They dont want him to make them look stupid.
     
  7. James.B.H

    James.B.H Member

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    No it doesn't, and it is almost impossible for any statistical model to factor in narrative. I am not saying this tracker is accurate, indeed it is not now because last year Harden leads the projected probability by the model all year, yet he still lost. However, this model is trained on historical data meaning that if the standard(if such a thing exits) for MVP voting is consistent, Harden's performance so far deserves a win unanimously, which everyone know is not going to happen.
     
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  8. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    that’s how it should be based on numbers and winning, but when u factor in narrative u can go ahead and drop Harden’s chances by about 20 percentage points and up the Greek Freak’s by about 40...that is why this race is seen as “close” right now when it shouldn’t even be a debate
     
  9. TracyMacAddidas

    TracyMacAddidas Contributing Member

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  10. ROXTXIA

    ROXTXIA Contributing Member

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    I fear James Harden will always be the Buffalo Bills of the MVP race. Hopefully I'm wrong. But as was stated earlier in this thread, it's always about the narrative. You let Zach Lowe and STEPHEN A. SMITH!!! start chiming in and forget it. You let the Greek Freakers start yapping and it gets tougher.

    But Harden's numbers are eye-popping, and God knows, the sportswriters and whatnot love the numbers.

    .

    FIFY. You're welcome!
     
  11. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    This tracker is useless really. It takes past elections and creates a model that factors in what voters normally vote on. The problem with that type of model is we KNOW that NBA voters change year to year what matters to them.
     
  12. Mazulis

    Mazulis Member

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    Media is on Nike payroll !
     
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  13. Mr. Space City

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    yeah but harden flops too much and doesn't play defense. plus his stats are inflated because of d'antoni. :rolleyes:
     
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  14. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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    It's November 17th. November 17th. The season started a month ago. Why are there so many MVP threads? We're not even 20 games in.

    JVG on the recent Knicks/Rockets game: Are we really talking about MVP? Didn't it just turn to November? There should be a mute button for the crowd if they do it before January 1st.

    Complain about Player of the Week media conspiracy, Player of the Month media conspiracy but MVP?

    [​IMG]

    The only MVP we should be talking about right now in November, on November 17th, is

    [​IMG]
     
  15. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

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    But what about the turnovers?

    Have all the turnover nazis finally gotten it through their heads that all that boo hooing about his turnovers was for naught?

    Seems as if people have finally grasped the concept that for the amount he has the ball and when compared to how much he creates his turnover level is more than acceptable.
     
  16. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    No I don't think most people agree with this premise.
     
  17. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    Narratives are born early. If you wait to talk about it until February or March you've already conceded.

    This is like people who get annoyed that campaigns start so early now.
     
  18. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

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    Weird. Some will never learn I guess
     
  19. kevC

    kevC Contributing Member

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    People complaining about his turnovers are similar to people who complain about Judge's strikeouts. Come at me.

    Jose still deserved MVP :D
     
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  20. Shaq2Yao

    Shaq2Yao Member

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    Excellent Analysis!
     
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