Not debating who is better or not at blocking balls... although you may want to break down Castro's passed ball/WP trends as the season has gone on (and he's at a career high for both while catching less... this staff does throw wild pitches). But it again remains to be seen how much its truly affecting the team's ability to win games. Especially since its hard to actually quantify how much Gattis' better hitting ability and throwing ability has mitigated the balls that get to the backstop. I'm sure somebody there who is smarter has figured that out... hence why he's getting a bulk of the playing time.
We spent too much on Giles to justify giving Chapman a huge contract. See where Giles is by mid-season next year, and if he hasn't turned it around, trade for a reliever if you look like a contender. We are primarily going to attempt to develop starting pitching from within. There's nothing on the free agent market this year, and a trade in the offseason seems less likely than a trade at mid-season. Best guess at the rotation next year: Keuchel, McCullers, Devenski, Musgrove and McHugh/Fiers. Which means that the offseason should mostly be about bats. As of today, we only have 5 everyday bats in the lineup: Altuve, Bregman, Correa, Springer and Gurriel. We need to get that up to 7, with the last 2 spots going to prospects or platoons. I consider Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to be as much a prospect as a potential contributor next season. We absolutely should sign him, but don't count on him just yet. Between Correa, Bregman, Altuve, Gurriel and Marwin, you've got the infield locked up with quality at bats. The last infielder spot probably goes to a prospect: Reed, White, etc. At catcher, Gattis is what he is. A nice offensive catcher, but not an every day guy. He's a DH for the most part. The closest prospect we have to the majors is Stubbs, who has soared up the ranks in the minors. I'd probably bring back Castro on a 1 year deal as a bridge to the future. You can tolerate Castro's bat if the rest of your lineup is solid. The looming question over the outfield is are we comfortable with platooning in both LF and CF? I believe the answer is no. Gomez was supposed to be our everyday CF, and Rasmus was going to take the majority of the LF minutes....just didn't work out. We need one more everyday player besides Springer, leaving the final spot for a platoon of young guys. And I keep coming back to Cespedes. He's the surest thing in the market and he fills a position of need. Also keep this in mind.....Rasmus and Gomez out and Cespedes in is about payroll neutral. We'd still be well below average in the league even with Cespedes signed to a 4 year $100 million deal. You can minimize the bite of the final years by structuring the contract on a declining scale, like they did with Gurriel. Something like $30, $27, $23, $20. 3B Bregman 2B Altuve SS Correa LF Cespedes 1B Gurriel RF Springer DH Gattis C Castro CF Marisnick Bench: Marwin, Reed/White, Kemp/Hernandez
I would be willing to wager, minus an acquisition, that their starting INF next year will be Bregman, Correa, Altuve, and Gurriel (with Marwin and... Kemp? on the bench). I think - if they can upgrade LF and DH (or C) - that they're content to play Marisnick in CF.
Heyman: Top 30 free agents and early contract guesses By Jon Heyman Posted on September 15, 2016 1. Yoenis Cespedes, Mets OF. He’s put up yet another monster season, easily outplaying last winter’s other outfield Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Alex Gordon. There’s no reason he shouldn’t get a guaranteed deal of at least four years, even with the qualifying offer attached this time, and a stated intention to stay in left field now. As for his chance to stick with the $47.5 million over two years and not opt out, one person put that option at “zero percent.” So he’s safely on this list, and at the top. Early guess: $100M, 4 years. 2. Encarnacion, Jays, 1B-DH. See above. Early guess: $80M, 4 years. 3. Wilson Ramos, Nationals C. He’s answered all the doubters with a monster season. An offensive catcher plays in free agency. Early guess: $68M, 4 years. 4. Ian Desmond, Rangers CF-SS. He found the right home after free agency turned into a disaster for him last year, and should cash in this time, even with the qualifying offer. The Phillies are interested, and one rumor has the Braves interested, as well. Texas would like to try to keep him, though. Early guess: $64M, 4 years. 5. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays OF. He won’t get the $150 million after a tough, injury wracked year. But he is a terrific player who’s generally defied his age. This is a far cry from what he sought, and some think it could go lower. The Jays did right by waiting in this case. Early guess: $60M, 3 years. 6. Justin Turner, Dodgers 3B. He’s turned into a great all-around player and would seem to be a must-have for L.A. (See below.) Word is, his side may bring up Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval and Adrian Beltre’s deal. They also may note how Chase Headley, no Turner, got $52 million, and Ben Zobrist got $56 million while turning down $60 million. At this moment, I’d take Turner over all of ‘em, except Beltre. Early guess: $60M, 4 years. 7. Aroldis Chapman, Cubs RP. He should top the Jonathan Papelbon relief record of $50 million, especially now that he doesn’t have a qualifying offer. Early guess: 56M, 4 years. 8. Rich Hill, Dodgers SP. While he has yet to log 600 (total) innings by age 36, his new-found stardom means he should cash in big-time in a market bereft of other aces. Early guess: $50M, 3 years. 9. Kenley Jansen, Dodgers RP. Another seeming must-have for baseball’s best-paying team. Unlike Chapman and Mark Melancon, he will have a qualifying offer attached (assuming the QO rule isn’t written out before free agency). Early guess: $50M, 4 years. 10. Mark Trumbo, Orioles OF-1B-DH. He seemed like a salary dump in what became a nice trade for the Orioles. Some may not love the relatively low 1.1 WAR, but he has big power and is great in a clubhouse. Early guess: $45M, 3 years. 11. Ivan Nova, Pirates SP. He should capitalize after a big finish in Pittsburgh. Ray Searage does a great job, but this one is a matter of opportunity and faith. Still probably better to stay in the NL though, if not Pittsburgh. Early guess: $42M, 3 years. 12. Mark Melancon, Nationals RP. Excellent closer, and like Chapman, he won’t have to deal with a qualifying offer. Early guess: $36M, 3 years. 13. Josh Reddick, Dodgers OF. He’s slumped since hitting L.A. so he’ll probably wind up elsewhere. Early guess: $36M, 3 years. 14. Martin Prado, Marlins 3B. He’s put together a very nice year at third. And it doesn’t hurt he can play second and left, as well. Early guess: $33M, 3 years. 15. Carlos Beltran Rangers OF-DH. He hasn’t slowed one bit, and should score yet again in free agency. The Red Sox tried for him at the deadline, and may again. Early guess: $32M, 2 years (though he may only want to play one more). 16. Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies SP. He’s done everything they’ve asked in Philly, and they’d like him back. While he’s had the career and overall year than Nova, Nova has flashed some dominance and can’t be saddled with the qualifying offer (more on that in Phillies section below). Early guess: $30M, 3 years. 17. Matt Wieters, Orioles C. He won’t get the qualifying offer this time around. There’s a possible Braves connection (Georgia Tech alum). Early guess: $30M, 3 years. 18. Andrew Cashner, Marlins SP. Bearded or beardless, this hasn’t been the walk year he would have wanted. Early guess: $25M, 2 years. 19. Neil Walker, Mets 2B. Walker was boffo in Queens before going out with a disc issue. Early guess: $24M, 2 years. 20. Dexter Fowler, Cubs OF. The late signee has done a terrific job in Chicago. $24M, 2 years. 21. Michael Saunders, Jays OF. He had a huge first half but isn’t quite matching it in the second. Early guess: $22M, 2 years. 22. Brad Ziegler, Red Sox RP. He confounds hitters with low-to-mid 80s offerings. Valuable piece. Early guess: $18M, 3 years. 23. Kendrys Morales, Royals DH. A nice second half means he could get another multiyear deal. Early guess: $16M, 2 years. 24. Doug Fister, Astros SP. He’s had a solid year despite not cracking 90 mph. Early guess: $16M, 2 years. 25. Mike Napoli, Indians 1B-DH. After the year he’s had, there will be more parties at Napoli’s. Early guess: $12M, 1 year. 26. Bartolo Colon, Mets SP. The most amazing man in baseball. Early guess: $12M, 1 year. 27. Matt Holliday, Cardinals OF. The clubhouse leader has an OPS below .800 (.768) for the first time in his excellent career but they’re seen as unlikely to pick up his $17-million option. He might be more valuable as an AL player going forward, though he’d be a loss, in the clubhouse, too. Early guess: $12M, 1 year. 28. Brandon Moss, Cardinals 1B-OF. Hit 26 home runs to make a nice case (though a recent 1-for-40 slide didn’t help). Early guess: $10M, 1 year. 29. Pedro Alvarez, Orioles DH-1B. He has a .506 slugging percentage in a part-time role. Early guess: $8M, 1 year. 30T. Travis Wood, Cubs RP-OF. He could always hit and Joe Maddon has proved he can play the outfield too (at least on occasion). Early guess: $6M, 1 year. 30T. Carlos Gomez, Rangers OF. He’s helping himself by fitting nicely into the Rangers’ winning environment. Early guess: $6M, 1 year. 30T. R.A. Dickey, Blue Jays SP. Good chance he keeps going, even at 43. Early guess: $6M, 1 year. 30T. Colby Rasmus, Astros OF. He cashed in with the qualifying offer windfall last year but will likely take a cut this time around. Early guess: $6M, 1 year. *Players with options that have a decent chance to be exercised, or opt-outs not likely to be exercised, were excluded from the list.
With openings at C, 1B, DH, CF, LF, SP, and RP, virtually all of those free agents could help Houston next season, although I hope they stick to the real impact guys.
At those numbers, i'd go hard after Encarnacion and Fowler Wouldn't be adding enough long term salary to interfere with long term signing of our own guys, and Encarnacion would make it easier for us to move Reed if he could be a big piece of a deal for a #2 type of starter. Fowler fit well here in the clubhouse, and would be a solid piece to the OF and a lineup that would be solid throughout, with some real studs towards the top
a) while Reed's prospects were legitimate, I can't imagine he was a highly-sought trade asset. He seems far more dime-a-dozen-ish than a tools-y OF or complete MI. Maybe that' my own bias; I just think finding a player of Reed's ilk is easier than, say, Bregman's; b) even if I'm 100% wrong, I would have to think Reed's value has taken a hit; c) if I'm wrong *again*, so be it - but the Astros should not, under any circumstances, hesitate to trade Reed if a team wants him to be the centerpiece of a deal for a legit #2 type starter.
that sounds like a good plan, and may leave some room to go after Aroldis depending on the deals and payroll I hope the stros stay away from Napoli/Trumbo And I'd be open to adding Colon at the back of the rotation, especially if there are still questions with LMJ.
Ortiz already mentioned that he hopes BOS signs EE: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...ston-red-sox-fined-comments-edwin-encarnacion I think Yo at 4/100MM is too conservative of a prediction. Upton just got 6/132MM. I suspect Yo will at least field offers in the 5y/125MM range.
If those are the costs, and assuming payroll tops out ~$120M, give me: 1 of Fowler/Reddick/Rasmus/Prado to play OF 1 of Napoli/Holliday/Trumbo/Beltran to DH (and spot in LF or at 1B) 1 of Chapman/Jansen/Melancon/Zeigler to give Houston the best bullpen in baseball Sign a 2nd tier C like Castro, Avila, Suzuki, Ruiz, or Ellis to a cheap 1 year deal. Then package Reed, Martes, Feliz, Paulino, K Tucker, and Fisher and get the best SP you can. Resulting opening day roster: RF Springer 3B Bregman 2B Altuve SS Correa 1B Gurriel C Gattis DH Napoli/Holliday/Beltran/Trumbo LF Fowler/Reddick/Prado/Rasmus CF Hernandez Bench: Marwin, Marisnick, Castro/Avila/Suzuki/Ruiz Rotation: TBD, Keuchel, McCullers, McHugh, Musgrove Bullpen: Devenski, Feliz, Hoyt, Sipp, Harris, Gregerson, Giles, Chapman/Jansen/Melancon/Zeigler That's a World Series caliber roster, depending on how good the TBD ace is.
Martin Prado is my guess. He can play all over, gets on base and would allow the Astros to slide Springer down in the line up. Unless the Astros trade a player like Springer, I cannot see them spending over 100 million on a free for someone that isn't in the rotation. I could see Springer dealt for a starter and then signing a bat, but I doubt north of 100 million. My best guess is the Astros get someone like Butera to platoon with Gatis behind the plate and sign Prado to a 2 year deal. Guriel, Prado and Bregman can all play OF, 1st and 3rd. Prado also adds another contact bat to off set Gatis. Prado Bregman Altuve Correa Gurriel Springer Gattis ----- -----
I dont think they will trade Springer next year but wont be surprised if he is traded a year before he hits free agency.
No thanks on Prado. His career is much closer to his 2015 than his 2016, which is just buoyed by a little BABIP bump. With Prado, I'd expect an above-avg defender, flexible on that side like you said, but roughly average offensive player (105, 104, 104 OPS+ from 2013-2015). Yes, that is an improvement on this team--but I don't think it moves the needle substantially. Not to mention, he'll be 33 before the offseason.
If it comes down to needing to move Springer with McCullers for Sale; the Astros would likely do it. The White Sox want players that are young and producing at the big league level. Bregman, Correa and Altuve aren't going anywhere... Lance and Springer fit the White Sox desires.
I get it But I will be pissed If we give up those two for Sale, we fix a huge gap of not having a true #1 We also create a huge gap in RF and lose a potential #1 starter, who has already shown the ability to dominate Plus I just love Springers attitude and the intangibles he brings
I don't know why the White Sox would be interested in Springer if they decide to rebuild; he's about to reach arbitration and will be a free agent before Sale will. Chicago's list will start with Correa, Bregman, and McCullers (knowing Altuve is a non-starter).
