For those who like a bit of a graph. This ranks Dwight's projected upcoming season against the 10 most comparable players in history. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#dwight-howard It doesn't look good you guys..
He is declining. That's why he won't be going anywhere next year. He will not be opting out of his contract next year.
Or not...there's money to be made and a new deal to sign. Waiting just puts him at risk of getting injured again and not getting a new deal. This is likely his last opportunity to get a multi-year deal.
I've been learning a lot about this 538 website/writer whatever lately. All I can say all stats that come from that site are looking uberly crappy and wrong. Defying logic. Insane. Unprofessional. Useless. Have nothing to do with basketball. At all. They use googled data that is outdated big time. They use weights of 10 year veteran from his rookie season...
Yes he has declined but as we saw from the playoffs his ceiling is still game changing. We just need to monitor his health.
Possibly more the rate of his expected decline that bothers me. Obviously he's going to have some degree of decline. On the flipside - i'm 32. And I feel physically as good as I did at 25. And in the 7 years in the middle I was pro wrestling. My genetics are not Dwight's. All positives.
Btw I think CARMELO use historical data including player injuries. So if you actually stay healthy you would have huge upgraded in value.
Well they are using WAR from last year when he was mostly injured to project the future. Questionable
With WAR being a cumulative stat this really doesn't mean too much. That said, it does look like his days of playing 82+ are long gone, so it's pretty unlikely that he'll ever be a WAR leader again.
Just about every player is declining at his age. But that deep slump for the coming year on the graph is more of error of small sample size than truth. Morly said Howard's the best center then he IS. No extra graph is necessary. :grin:
http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=203928 there are some old matches on youtube that are terrible.All from my first year when I was marking out for myself and uploading my stuff - search Jack Tasman