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Draft Day Acquisitions

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Spacemoth, May 19, 2010.

  1. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    How's it goin' Clutchfans peeps, now that we finally know the order to the upcoming draft and increased our chances at picking at #14 by 1.6%, I thought it would be a good time to look not at who we might draft, but rather who we might deal with to acquire an asset at a bargain price.

    Contentions:

    1. Morey has said that it's about 50/50 that he will deal this pick for something else, either another pick up or down or an already established player.

    2. Abiding by the Morey theory of buy-low sell-high, draft picks essentially reach their peak value just before they are used up as teams dream of selecting an as-yet-unnamed superstar to turn their franchise around. The anonymity of the pick is key--management has a chance to select someone, anyone, to change the fate of their team for years to come. Conversely, draft picks reach their nadir in value at the all-star break when teams use them as leverage to obtain more immediate gains, like acquiring a player for the stretch playoff run or, *cough* *cough*, use them as bait for other teams to take on their junk contracts.

    If you believe the two points above, then doesn't it stand to be more worthwhile to forecast which teams we could fleece in draft day trades rather than trying to pry loose from them their precious, precious draft picks from which their saviour will arrive? Teams that would be willing to dump their current stars as they draft the kids who will end up taking their spot in the starting lineup?

    Here were the first possibilities that occurred to me as I watched the lottery:

    1. Al Jefferson - The T'Bolves will draft in the four hole. Assuming Wall and Turner are gone by then, they'll be looking at picking between Wesley Johnson and whichever one between Cousins and Favors that the Nets at #3 do not select. If the Rockets offer to take Jefferson and his 3yr, 42M contract off their hands, wow, think how good the Timberwolves would be next year with Favors being that magical superstar that Jefferson always failed at becoming for them! Sarcasm aside, the Rockets would probably only need to offer #14 and contracts (Jeffries, Battier/Ariza) to make this work.

    2. Andre Iguodala - I know that there was tons of debate about whether or not having Iguodala and his contract (4 more years, ~56M including his player option) would even benefit the Rockets as currently constructed, but he is another player that could be had for pennies on the dollar at this point. Philly is selecting #2, and they will be hard-pressed not to take Turner. Their frontcourt, while not spectacular, is overloaded with Brand, Young, and Speights. It would not make much sense at all for them to take a Cousins or Favors. (If they do, however, we could always go after a guy like Speights.) It's my guess that Iguodala could be had for contracts alone, not even giving up our #14 pick. And I know we already have Martin at SG, but AI at 6'6 has played SF before, he used to be a good defender and might still be one if he doesn't have to carry his team on offense anymore.

    3. Spencer Hawes, Charlie Villenueva, Roy Hibbert, Anthony Randolph - This year's draft is deep in big men by any scout's account, and teams will be ready in droves to jettison their preexisting minutes-eaters in the post to make way for the new talent. The kinds of guys we might consider taking hard looks at are the ones who have been around for 2-4 years, still young enough to improve but old enough to the point where they don't have that "new car smell" anymore to the teams that drafted them. Except for a few cases, it might not require us giving up our draft pick to acquire them.

    You guys tell me. What would Morey do? Because I sure as hell don't think he'll be trading Scola or Brooks + fillers anytime soon just for the #5 pick in the draft. Stop dreaming about John Wall and Evan Turner, everyone is thinking like that. Think against the grain--where's the REAL money to be made in a market like this?
     
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  2. mickey_angelo

    mickey_angelo Member

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    Don't agree with all your points, but you are on the right track. Morey can make a draft day acquisition and still have enough assets to go after a high caliber FA. On to some of your points:

    1. Never been a fan of Jefferson. He puts up numbers but doesn't really put up wins. Plus, I think to acquire Big Al we would have to trade Martin which in my opinion is a lateral move.

    2. I have always been a fan of Iggy, but I'm not sure how he would fit on this team or rather if he makes the team a contender for the money he is making.

    3. Charlie Villanueva :confused: His contract is ridiculous. Anthony Randolph is still young(maybe even younger than some draft picks this year) so I don't see him being cheap
     
  3. REEKO_HTOWN

    REEKO_HTOWN I'm Rich Biiiiaaatch!

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    If Minny drafts Favors what happens to Kevin Love?

    I see no PF being drafted by the Wolves.
     
  4. mickey_angelo

    mickey_angelo Member

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    Since NJ already has Lopez at center, Minny is probably hoping Cousins falls to them. That would give them a legitimate center and a good PF rotation. In that scenario I don't think Minny should trade Big Al.
     
  5. BasketballReasons

    BasketballReasons Contributing Member

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    Here's my take on what I think Morey would do:

    Last year when we discovered Morey was trying to get one of the top guards (Evans-Curry-Rubio-Jennings), he made it clear that he wasn't content by the idea of having Brooks as a full-time starter. Don't ask me why, but that's probably just how it is.
    I remember just before last years draft he was on the radio talking about how high he valued Rubio.

    Now I think that once again, he's going to try and go after Ricky.

    First, lets take a look at the first 3 picks and see what we could eventually nab out of them:

    1. Washington - John Wall
    (this means: Arenas could be on his way out. Do we want him? No)

    2. Philly - Evan Turner (this means: Like stated above this makes Iggy available and the Sixers will let him go more easily this summer, however, we got the guy we were targeting since the beginning -- Kevin Martin -- and we aren't interested anymore. HOWEVER, don't be surprised if the Sixers trade the pick. Either to trade down or out, if they see that they don't have a shot to trade Iggy for something valuable, they will trade the #2 for a ishload of other assets).

    3. Nets - Derrick Favors (this means: The Nets won't be selling anyone in particular, their owner has said he viewed Favors as a 4 and Cousins as a 4/5. Depending on how the workouts go they will pick him. HOWEVER, the Nets owner has a goal to be in the playoffs next year and contend immediately. Favors is a project and probably won't make an impact right away. THIS MEANS that we might be able to trade some proven players to the Nets in exchange for the pick. They wanted Wall, how about Brooks+?).

    4. Minnesota - ???
    (Now this is where the cheese is at. David Khan made assumptions that he had enough of young players, and wanted them to grow and start making some noise. Furthermore, he IS NOT sold on Cousins at all, infact they really wanted a top 3 pick to get either Wall-Turner-Favors. So unless they are hearing Favors will slip to them, I think they will either trade out or trade back in the draft. I doubt they will take Johnson because both him and Brewer have a hard time of creating their own shot.
    As for Al Jefferson, I like him as a player but doubt he would fit. Minny is to me the most likely trading partner. I think that we could grab Rubio + 4th pick at a reasonnable price. We would have to give up a proven player (maybe Brooks) + 14th + Hill (the PF they desperately want in Favors) + another piece (probably Knicks pick or future Rockets pick)).
    FYI, Minny also has the 16th selection and another late first round pick, which they could probably trade aswell.

    Morey has shown in the past that once he targets someone, he's not going to stop until he somehow gets that player. He's also shown that he's very creative in finding ways to gets the deals done (Artest deal, Kevin Martin deal, etc) so i'm not sure it will be so easy to predict. One thing is certain though: He wants Rubio and he wants a top 4 pick.

    Another notable thing to finish this off is the possible slip of Ed Davis. This is a man whom no-one has been talking about, and with the draft order he is most likely to slip in the 9-12 range. IMO he has as much talent as Favors, so if we could get him somehow he'd be a great addition further down the road.
     
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  6. mickey_angelo

    mickey_angelo Member

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    I think what people are ignoring is that he wanted Rubio when there was no guarantees that Brooks + Lowry could handle the PG position for an entire season. I think Brooks has proven himself, so if the Rockets trade I hope they get back more than a 4th pick and an unproven rookie PG (at the NBA level) that will not be coming over until the 2012-2013 season.
     
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  7. moestavern19

    moestavern19 Member

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    This draft is an amusing one. The lottery is so cluttered with all these talented Bigs that some really good wing scorers are going to get pushed to the middle to late 1st round. Evan Turner is probably the only legit "wing" who will go in the lottery range, and he's supposedly being touted as a Brandon Roy-type who will handle the ball a lot.

    James Anderson out of OSU is a guy who could end up being a real gem. I like him a lot more than his Big 12 counterpart Xavier Henry. You read his http://draftexpress.com report and it screams "Morey pick".


    If we have to ship out Chase for any reason, I wouldn't be surprised to see Morey find a way to get James Anderson in a Rockets uni.
     
  8. kaleidosky

    kaleidosky Your Tweety Bird dance just cost us a run

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    Buy Gani Lawal in the early 2nd round please!
     
  9. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    I agree with your points about Washington and New Jersey. Arenas is a poison pill that no team would be willing to take on at this point unless their contracts combined are just as bad or worse than Arenas'. The only teams with that many bad contracts that comes to mind are New Orleans and Philly.

    New Jersey is a team so in need of talent that they could draft anyone at this point and find a place for that player to play. Lopez only takes one spot at C; the rest are open, and Cousins/Favors can certainly slot to PF easily, so I don't look at position of need being any kind of factor whatsoever for them. They'll take the BPA by necessity.

    I'm not so sure I agree on Rubio though. He's definitely not coming here for 2010, when we absolutely must make a run for the title (Morey has gone on record saying Les will exceed the cap and tax for the next season which is saying somethign to me since he had not done that in any other season including the one with our "Big Three" of T-Mac Yao and Artest). Also, we have the Next Ricky Rubio in Llull. Not so sure Morey wants to give up on him just yet, as Llull's potential for defensive competency is higher than Rubio's, who would max out (and honestly has no real shot) at the second coming of Steve Nash. No matter how good Rubio gets, he won't be shooting 55/95/45 the way Nash has.

    I understand that people see Minnesota as a potential trade partner, but it makes no sense whatsoever to dream about nabbing their pick. That thing is gonna come at a steep price, and the market will be set by what other teams are willing to offer for it. Although Al Jefferson may not be a perfect fit for this team, he certainly would improve our frontcourt and provide us with the athleticism, defense, and rebounding we are sorely in need of even with the return of Yao. If we cannot get Bosh he is definitely worth considering, and if DO get Bosh then heck I'd rather consider one of the vets already mentioned in this thread over whatever project we could develop from our 14th pick (Whiteside? Motiejunas?).
     
  10. abigwreck

    abigwreck Member

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    I love Al Jefferson, but I would never want him on my team as a C.

    When he has to play out of position at center (most of the time) he does absolutely terrible on defense. I don't see how acquiring him would be anything but a lateral move at this point considering who we would have to give up to get him.
     
  11. binvegas

    binvegas Contributing Member

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    Anthony Randolph has a ton of ability Nellie hasn't used him right. That would be a great addition to the team.
     
  12. rocketblaze

    rocketblaze Member

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    If the rockets move up in the draft to get Cousins, I see us trading Budinger to get it done ... and if thats the case, I would be looking at Paul George as a possible acquisition from this draft to replace Chase Budinger...

    --RB
     
  13. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    or Paul George
     
  14. jump shooter

    jump shooter Contributing Member

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    Wouldn't that be kinda of a sideways move.
     
  15. pbthunder

    pbthunder Contributing Member

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    Very intriguing. It goes against the Win Now idea, though. It will take a year, maybe more, I think, for Rubio to become better than Brooks in the NBA game. Also, while the #4 pick should yield a player a step above Hill, we're losing, let's say, 8 months experience there. I would have said a year, except that Hill spent most of it on NY's bench.

    I think it would be a sideways as far as the upcoming season goes, though I don't know that I could walk away from that deal.
     
  16. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    I think there should be a ban on any ideas involving Rubio. I'm not saying it won't happen or Morey isn't interested.

    He might be.

    But, we have very little definitive knowledge of if Morey is interested, and even less knowledge that he is as interested as many make him out to be. Moreover, as I understand it, Rubio does now have a large buyout that could (key word, could) prevent him from joining any team next year or even the following. And finally, there is as likely a chance that Rubio is either a role player or back to Europe player as there is that he will even be as useful a player as Brooks, much less better.

    For all of those reasons, I cringe everytime I even see a trade proposal involving Rubio.

    Would it be nice to get the 4th pick AND Rubio for some package that makes sense? Sure, but not for Brooks and the 14th and Hill and the Knicks pick. That's way too many assets to give up and a backwards move.

    Anyways, I think you guys have narrowed in on the T-Wolves and potentially Sixers as trade targets. I'm not convinced the Sixers will be as desperate to move Iggy - couldn't Turner and Iggy play together? Though I am sure they are still looking to move Dalembert.

    I highly doubt the Sixers would do this, but, if Les was willing, would anyone trade Battier, David Andersen, Chase and the 14th pick for Dalembert + 2nd pick. Again, I doubt the Sixers would do it, but you never know...
     
  17. Seven

    Seven Contributing Member

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    The Sixers would do it in a heartbeat...Why would the Rockets give up Battier, Chase, and the 14th for an overpaid backup center? That's a terrible move for the Rockets. We can get a Dalembert quality player through the draft with the 14th pick. Heck we might even trade back.
     
  18. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    No because we get the back-up center that we wanted and a replacement for Chase at 14.
     
  19. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    That type of deal would be done solely to get the #2 pick, not so much as for Dalembert. Anyway we would be getting the back-up center who is capable of leading a team if necessary, plus a high draft pick who will help us in the immediate future.
     
  20. Seven

    Seven Contributing Member

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    I failed at reading. I read 2nd round pick. That changes alot.
     

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