Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by BimaThug, Dec 31, 2013.
Great read as always; Im sure though Les will find a way to take care of Parsons, who was quite instrumental in getting Howard to Houston. Add to the fact that Parsons is really the 3rd best player on this team, Morey and Les will do Parsons right. I expect him to get a salary around the 11-12 mil range per year. Not sure if they will let the markets decide his value or have his agent do so. I think the right move might be to have him become a restricted free agent, and have the Rockets mgmt exceed the cap to resign him.
Personally I suspect the wiser option is to decline the option to keep Parsons in RFA status. Assuming Parsons keeps developing, his contract value will continue to increase should we put it off an additional year. Matching Parsons during RFA will not only likely get us Parsons at a lower price (especially if everyone understands that we'll match Parsons), but will give the team salary stability moving forward.
IF Morey is truly set on retaining Parsons (as a player or a trade chip), it does not make sense to allow Parsons to enter UFA and potentially lose him for nothing.
While there are real cap concerns in terms of 2015 should we sign Parsons to a hefty contract, assuming the contract is not exorbitant it makes sense to lock Parsons in for 3-4 years that you can then either keep or use later as a central part of a trade.
This is assuming of course that you don't intend to trade Parsons as sweetener for part of a package during the summer of 2014.
A great read before new years....Thank you just in time for 2014....
Something like 10 M a year will be ok to pay Chandler.
For my own understanding, if the Rockets keep Lin and Asik until their contracts expire, the cap hold for them wouldn't count against us if we do not resign them, only if do we resign them.
So if we let them walk in 2015 then $16.6M would open up and no part of that would figure in to signing an outside FA. But if we did keep them and resign them then their significant cap holds wouldn't free up enough space to sign someone and then resign them over the cap like in Parsons case (if his option was picked up and became an UFA in 2015).
What moves could we see in the future that would tip our hand on whether we will try to sign Parsons as a RFA a year early or take up his team option?
The real question remains.....how much is Les willing to pay to get that 3rd star and resign Parsons? I'm worried that we will make Parsons a RFA this summer to save money over the long run. The new repeater tax has scared off OKC, Miami, Chicago, and NYK, as evidenced by their roster decisions. The only teams that seem not to care are the Lakers and Brooklyn.
My hope is that Les is a man of his word....that he will invest when this team has a real shot at winning.
Seeing as Parsons is the closest thing we have to a third "star" and the most important player behind Harden and Howard, I don't see how the Rockets will let him go provided he does not get paid like a star. I would like to see us sign him around the $7-8M per year marker for 4 years.
Decision seems simple though:
1) - if you can trade for a third star THIS season you make Parsons a RFA and pay the man
2) - if you can't get that third star THIS season you pickup the team option and hope like hell you can convince him to wait till you have used your cap space on someone else and then resign him using his Bird Rights when he is a URFA.
I think there could be 2 tells:
1) If Lin and Asik are traded before 2014s trade deadline, and the rockets only take back expiring contracts. That means they are making a run in 2014 free agency, rather than waiting for 2015.
2) In connection to #1, if the rockets trade their 2014 pick to clear cap for 2014.
Great read as always Bima.
I think its the whole Fegan/Howard dynamic that is really going to make this interesting.
On one hand, Fegan has a client in Parsons who has been severely underpaid for 2 years, and is possibly looking at yet another year after this one of being underpaid at the minimum if he doesn't get to become a RFA this Summer.
And on the other hand, he has Howard, whose next mega-contract potentially in the Summer of 2016 if relying upon Howard solidifying himself as one of the all-time greatest centers by winning a championship. A big part of Howards success in the postseason might very well rely on what the Rockets can do in either the next couple trades or the Summer of 2015 free agency.
So does Fegan tell Chandler to be patient and communicate to the Rockets that they will almost surely re-sign in Houston in the Summer of 2015 as an un-restricted free agent, or do they try and strong arm Morey by communicating to the Rockets that Parsons might explore other options as an Un-restricted free agent in 2015 if they do not make him a RFA this Summer??
The Chandler Parsons/Dwight Howard dynamic is going to continue to be a pretty interesting partnership to look out for. My guess is Parsons & Fegan communicate that they will be patient for un-restricted free agency in 2015 in order to give Morey the ability to form a superteam in 2015 with either Love or LMA. The idea of forming a Harden/Howard/Love/Parsons powerhouse HAS TO be enticing for all parties.
The one thing that could really change the dynamic here is what happens with the oh-so important Asik trade that is bound to resurface in the coming weeks. If they get a really really good player back in return it could make the option to lock up Parsons this Summer a no-brainer. If they can't make a deal or only get back trade assets like picks/expirings back it could make un-restricted free agency a better option.
(Thanks for the great read Bima)
Correct. For the Rockets to have significant cap space in 2015 they would need to renounce the rights of Lin & Asik to clear up cap space.
The reason why the Rockets can both keep Parsons in 2015 and go after a big time free agent is because Parsons' cap hold will only be 1.8 million dollars due to the low amount he is making now. They could sign the major free agent first, and then sign Parsons above the cap to whatever contract they agree on.
With Lin and Asik of course it would be a fairly large figure for both players so they initially wouldn't be able to sign a major free agent in the first place unless they renounce their bird rights.
I don't think people here realize the market for a player like Parsons is.
Tyreke Evans just signed for $11mil/yr.
Jeff Green signed for $10mil/yr after skipping a year due to a serious medical condition.
Gordon Heyward reportedly rejected a $12mil/yr offer
Parsons is currently putting up stats better or a lot better than all of the above players. Of the 6 players ahead of Parsons in PPG at the SF position, 5 are max players. The other is Evan Turner, a guy everyone feels is just just putting up stats on a horrible Sixers team.
In addition, the SF, or swingman position, is currently perhaps the most barren of all positions in the NBA today. It's also one of the most coveted positions as teams play smaller and smaller. The market for Parsons will be incredibly high. If you don't believe me, just go look at the SFs playing for other teams.
Parsons, even at his current market value, is already close if not already at the max. His agent is Dan Fegan. He is going to get a HUGE contract no matter when he becomes a FA. Dan Fegan will ensure his contract offer as a RFA, should we make him one, would be higher than 99% of what clutchfans believe he'd get.
Thxs man. I heart you..................r articles!!
Good points. Youre right that with Fegan as his agent, it's very unlikely the Rockets get any sort "deal". IMO, that means the rockets should pickup his option for next year, and make him an URFA in 2015.
Bima- Also, I haven't seen you explain to people yet what it would mean if the Rockets had to shell out the "max" for some reason to Parsons.
I think alot of CF's here the word "Max" and think the Rockets are going to get stuck with Parsons on a Joe Johnson contract or something. I would appreciate it if you could clear that up as to what that would mean in a worst case (financially) scenario where the Rockets would have to match a max contract offer from another team.
I believe his Max would be 11 - 12 million in year 1 if resigned this Summer if I'm not mistaken. Something like 4 years 50 million I believe if my math is right.
I think it could help alleviate some concerns that even if the Rockets have to "over-pay" according to some folks on here that don't think Parsons is that important, it wont potentially be as toxic as some might think. The difference between what people think he's worth (generally I hear the 8 to 10 million a year range) and what his high end potential in a max deal really shouldn't be that big of a difference in the end.
I've been beating this drum for awhile but people just don't get it. I'd love to resign Chandler for 7m a year 4 years or whatever, but it's not going to happen. Chandler is exactly the kind of player that makes GMs weak at the knees; think back to Morey trading a pick for Terrence Williams and signing Trevor Ariza, and Morey is one of the best in the league.
Fegan telling Parsons to be patient might be a hard sell, as Parsons always has the risk of serious injury. Whether or not signing sooner is in the Rocket's best interest, signing sooner is probably in Parsons' best interest.