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[ClutchFans] Podcast - The Dwight Howard Trade Aftermath

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Clutch, Aug 13, 2012.

  1. AusFan

    AusFan Contributing Member

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    My theory:

    Morey knows the only way to get better is to tank. Les won't let him tank, so the last few years they have been on this 'improving without tanking theme.'

    So Morey convinces Les to let him gut the roster in order to get Dwight, but since he really wants to tank he low balls Orlando with an offer he knows they won't accept...

    Seriously though, I'm glad we didn't get Dwight. He's made it clear that he'll only play long term in a couple of cities, so it wouldn't be worth giving up a lot on the slim chance we could convince him to stay. I'd assume Morey figured what he would be willing to give up with this in mind.
     
  2. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    Bima has it 100% correct. Clutch has it wrong. 9th pick is much more realistic than top 5 lottery pick. In large part because Clutch is overestimating how much playing time the rookies will get.
     
  3. jopatmc

    jopatmc Contributing Member

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    The biggest reason why we won't be in the top 5 is because we will play hard and try to win. We could have 5 rookies on the floor and we still wouldn't get top 5 worst record because of that one factor. To get a top 5 pick, you've got to intentionally pull the plug at the beginning of the season and for the entire season to be as bad as teams like Charlotte, New Orleans, etc., who are playing for a top pick. You have to intentionally be real bad. And therein lies the problem. It's just not in Les' DNA not to compete.
     
  4. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    Right. I think the guys who are thinking along the lines of Clutch also underestimate how terrible the East is, and think "we will be near the bottom of the West therefore top 5 pick!" However that's not really accurate--we could be the 2nd worst team in the West and still might be outside the top 5 seeds in the lottery. In reality I think we our worst case scenario is the 3rd worst team in the West which would put us around 5th worst in the East... aka 8th seed in the lottery.

    And I think the team could definitely be better than that depending on how guys like Lin play and how much PT the rookies get. With the addition of Delfino, 14th pick is actually a possibility again.
     
  5. Yung-T

    Yung-T Member

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    The thing is, Charlotte and few years ago the Nets really tried to win but were just too terrible. The starting fives tried but they just plain sucked.
     
  6. pickymen

    pickymen Contributing Member

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    Thanks Clutch and Bima! I truly enjoy it and look forward to having more podcast.

    Maybe we can have a guest appearance from Daryl Morey?

    I can't wait to sign up league pass and watch our young guys play.
     
  7. Raven

    Raven Member

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    Need to shave some players, hopefully for future picks, even second rounders, but please do not fill our roster with second tier stars who will kill our cap, cost us assets, and ruin our draft position.
     
  8. emjohn

    emjohn Contributing Member

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    My thoughts on the main topics:

    Lin:
    Overpaid or no, Star or no, it really doesn't matter. He's not here to net us wins (today). He's plugging the surprising gaping hole at what was our position of strength a few months ago. He's bringing in attention and dollars, which might placate Les and get him to play along with a lottery drive.

    I do think Lin has plenty going for him. He succeeded in a rookie year without the benefit of summer league, a full camp, and managed to blow up on a team he joined after the season started (precious few practices). There's all the reason in the world to believe he can take big steps forward.

    And as they say, ball don't lie. The tear he went on in January was eye popping. If it wasn't for the MCL, he would have been a serious ROY candidate. How often does an undrafted guy get to that level?

    I do agree that there are concerns: the TOs are a big one, so was his crash to earth once a bullseye was on his back. He's got a great knack for the game and nose for the rim, but he's not exceptionally quick or explosive. He can be exploited on D.

    All that matters is this: he's the best PG on the roster. God help us if the Knicks matched and we were trotting out Machado and Douglas. History has also shown that if you want to win championships, you usually don't want a PG as your best player - Isiah Thomas being a rare exception.

    Record:

    For the life of me, I'll never understand the argument for making the playoffs as a bottom seed, giving up our draft pick at maximum value, and remain stuck on the mediocrity treadmill with one less piece to improve. As has been mentioned several times, if "trade flexibility" was so important, Morey would be motivated to work out a deal to get our pick back...but he's not.

    I think a lot of posters are overestimating this team's prospects. Maybe it's because losing records have been so rare the last two decades. Maybe it's because the new guys haven't played a regular season game yet to allow reality to sink in.

    Young teams usually stink on defense, even if they are promising on offense. Look at Durant's Sonics or today's Kings. Yes, we have Asik, but he's yet to prove he's ready for more than 20 or 25 minutes a night. Morey's made enough remarks about unconventional fives that you can tell he doesn't see Asik holding down the post 40 mpg. Motiejunas and Patterson are not shutting down the paint. Lin and Martin are not ballhawks that will keep their man from the rim. Parsons has serious chops, but I suspect strong 4s are going to have a field day against us down low.

    So where do we end up?

    I honestly think we will be bottom 3 in the West. The question is how awful the bottom feeders of the East will be. Cle, Was, Cha, Det, and Mil all look awful.* So 8th or 9th worst record is an unfortunate possibility. I am worried that having a vet coach (win-now mindset) like McHale will hurt our chances. McHale, Adelman...no established coach wants to burn his career W/L record with a 22-60 season.

    I'd like to believe we can flip Martin at the deadline and finish with the 6th pick going into the lottery (with Toronto's pick as well - please suck). I do agree that a bottom 3 finish is virtually out of the question.

    *Last year, Sacramento had the second-worst record in the West (22 wins ~~> 27 wins in a full season), but that tied them with NJ for 5th/6th worst record in the league. If the Rockets want a shot at winning the 3rd, 2nd, 1st pick...they probably can not win 30 games or more. I have a difficult time seeing that. I see a 33-35 win team today.
     
  9. emjohn

    emjohn Contributing Member

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    Easier said than done. Nobody was willing to offer Morey anything at all for Scola, forcing the amnesty.

    Best hope is a playoff team suffers a major injury to their SG and are willing/able to make a move for Martin. Even then, I don't expect much. The the market for big expiring deals has plummeted in the past five years. Hornets got zilch for Kaman a year ago.
     
  10. Sadat X

    Sadat X Member

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    Really? Even if it meant we would win the Championship, I would never in my life wish an injury against any player/organization.

    Am I alone on this?
     
  11. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    I've seen that a lot lately on this forum. Stay classy, ClutchFans...
     
  12. roxxy

    roxxy Member

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    Interesting post. I agreed with some part but not all. First, Lin couldn't have gotten ROY because he wasn't a rookie. Maybe he could have gotten Most Improved Player who knows. His TO's are a concern but not as big of a one as everyone makes it out to be. Kidd, Rubio, Rondo, Nash all turned the ball over at a greater percentage than Lin did. Not saying he shouldn't cut them down (because he should it is a bad habit to have) but at the same time I would rather have him getting some TO's than playing less aggressive. Disagree with the crash to earth part, in his last 7 games alone (with a "bulls eye on his back") he averaged per 36 18 & 8, if that is what a player averages when he is "crashing to earth" I will take it. I disagree that the reason why Morey talked about unconventional fives is because of Asik not being able to hold down the spot. It is because we have such a log jam at PF and also because the NBA is now transitioning to an era of position-less basketball where you will see guys playing well, position-less. I agree that the Rockets won't win a ton of games. How many is up for debate.
     
  13. roxxy

    roxxy Member

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    No you are not. I hate when people do this. Very tasteless.
     
  14. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    The Rockets probably received SOME offers for Scola. Just none that didn't involve the Rockets taking back a (presumably smaller) "bad contract" that could not be amnestied. The choice likely wasn't "amnesty or get nothing for him." It was probably more like "amnesty or get stuck with a little less long-term salary."

    As for the market on expiring contracts, I'm not so sure that market has plummeted quite as much as you do. The Kaman example was more about the Hornets valuing the prospect of possibly retainin Kaman beyond last season over what was being offered, not so much that nothing was actually offered. The Rockets offered them the MIN second rounder (a pretty decent pick, actually), Jordan Hill (either an expiring deal or a guy to keep longer term), Hasheem Thabeet (expiring contract) and a few million dollars in salary savings. That's not "nothing" and would not have harmed the Hornets in any way long-term. The league-owned Hornets simply (and stubbornly) refused to deal Kaman for anything less than $1.50 on the dollar.
     
  15. M4-Nightvision

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    Jeremy Lin gonna be very very good , an all star. mark my word. :grin:
     
  16. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    To add to what Bima said regarding value of expiring contracts:

    The market for expiring contracts has not dried up at all. Team have continued to obtain value for expiring contracts very recently. When a team doesn't realize value for an expiring contract, it is by that team's own choice.

    Specifically, thing about this: The thing that makes a team want to trade for an "expiring" contract is that the team can trade an unwanted longer term (i.e. non-expiring contract) for it, thus getting itself out of that future obligation and, often more importantly, creating cap room for the upcoming season or avoid luxury tax payments.

    So, if you want value for an "expiring contract"-- or more specifically, if you want value for the "expiring" nature of that contract-- the pre-requisite is that you have to be willing to take back non-expiring salary. Thus, the Rockets were able to leverage T-Mac's expiring contract into Jordan Hill and draft pick considerations (which turned into Royce White) because they were willing to take back the unwanted non-expiring deal of Jared Jeffries. More recently, they were able to obtain a 1st round pick (the Dallas pick) for Jordan Hill's expiring contract because they were willing to take back the non-expiring contract of Derek Fisher. A similar but somewhat different example is when the Brooklyn Nets traded a bunch of expiring contracts and a pick (the HOU protected pick) for Joe Johnson (a very good player whose contract Atlanta did not want).

    Of course, there are expiring contracts that teams do not trade, but that's because the team (1) has use for that player on court or (2) wants to realize the upcoming salary savings for itself rather than take back $ that it does not want. For example, NOH kept Kaman rather than eat any non-expiring salary for him. This offseason, this move is a part of what gave them the salary flexibility (likely both under the CBA and under its own budget) to, for example, obtain Ryan Anderson.


    The Rockets may or may not trade Kevin Martin's expiring contract in a "TMac-type deal", depending on what is offered. On one hand, the Rockets may be able to get quite a bit from team wanting to dump an unwanted deal. On the other hand, the Rockets are projected to have as much as $26M+ in 2013 cap space if they do not take on any more $ for the upcoming season, so there's a cost to taking back contracts besides just the money.
     
  17. Rox>Mavs

    Rox>Mavs Contributing Member

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    My guess is we don't want multiple 1st rounders next year. We're rookie heavy now.

    How high up in the draft could we get or what could we trade for if we packaged a probably 9th pick (our own), toronto's pick, possibly Dallas' pick, and maybe one of our current rooks? Maybe we could get into the top 5 via trade?
     
  18. AggNRox

    AggNRox Member

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    this is called "Olympic Spirit":grin:
     
  19. thekad

    thekad Member

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    Detroit traded a lottery pick for Corey Maggette(a net negative player) and his expiring contract.
     
  20. caneks

    caneks Rookie

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    Tanking does not guarantee a high pick, and a high pick does not guarantee you a good team in near future. Charlotte Bobcats, Washington Wizards, Sacramento Kings, Minnesota Timberwolves are good examples of tanking for years and still suck. Bottom line is you need a good GM to build a good team, which we do not have.
     
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