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Astros Trade option(s)

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by ZeroPoint, Apr 14, 2017.

  1. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Contributing Member
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    Just seems like yesterday when the Diamondbacks went win now with a nice young core by adding two top 30 pitchers (one was likely top 2 or 3) with only giving up a defensive player, prospects, and money. Now, they need almost everyone to perform better than expected and have great health to have likely one last shot at playoffs before years of suckage. Makes you wonder if there is a correlation between good farm systems and depth. Glad we never have these won now discussions.
     
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  2. eric.81

    eric.81 Contributing Member

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    **BUMP**

    Not really sure where else to put this, but I was hoping we could start a general discussion of trade targets. Everyone seems to agree that the Astros will be buyers at the trade deadline (or sooner, as with Kazmir a few years ago).

    Who would you like to see the Astros target and why?

    I am hoping that Quintana's season lowers his price and a change of scenery evens out his performance. He profiles as a perfect #3 in our rotation, this season's results excluded.

    Chris Archer was my favorite trade target, but the Rays are one of the few teams with a top 10 offense and a top 10 pitching staff. With their tight payroll and Archer being reasonably cost-controlled for the next few years, I just don't see the motivation for Tampa Bay to deal him.

    I personally like Garrett Cole or Sonny Gray for our pitching staff... I think Gray is going to be cheaper in terms of prospects cost.

    The real reason I wanted to start this discussion is Marcel Ozuna. The Marlins have a bad farm system and are definitely (perpetually) going to be sellers at the trade deadline. I would love to add him to our lineup. I know we should focus on the staff, but what would it take to get Ozuna from the Marlins?
     
  3. eric.81

    eric.81 Contributing Member

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    Here's the BSPN article that got my mind moving in this direction...

    http://bbs.clutchfans.net/index.php?threads/astros-trade-option-s.281983/

    Tuesday, May 30, 2017
    Updated: May 31, 9:24 AM ET

    Trade-deadline tiers: Who's buying? And who's selling?
    By Bradford Doolittle



    Believe it or not, we're creeping up on the one-third mark of the big-league season, with Wednesday's games officially marking the end of the second month of the 2017 campaign. Memorial Day is a fairly significant one on the baseball calendar, because this is when a number of decision-makers around the league start to look at their teams with a more critical eye. Dismissing trends as being too early becomes more difficult. With the results piling up, preseason expectations are trumped by reality and teams start positioning themselves to consolidate or pivot.

    With the end of another month, it's time for another round of checkups across baseball, repeating the exercise I began last month. However, with the trade deadline just two months away, we're going to change things up a tad. We're still displaying the updated forecasts and playoff odds for each team and how they've changed during May.

    And we're grouping teams a little differently by putting more emphasis on their respective buy, hold and sell statuses. We've put the teams into five tiers: ready to buy, probable buyers, still holding, probable sellers and open for business. The groupings have all been determined by each team's probability to make the postseason, according to FiveThirtyEight. The ranking noted for each team reflects its current standing in my power rating system, and teams are listed in order by that ranking within each group.



    Ready to buy
    [​IMG]1. Los Angeles Dodgers

    Rev. forecast: 105.0 wins | Monthly change: 11.3

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 94 percent | Monthly change: 19 percent

    Cody Bellinger's arrival gives the Dodgers awesome star power atop a roster that already featured Corey Seager, Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen. But the rise of the Dodgers continues largely because of the depth built up by general manager Andrew Friedman. With injury question marks in the rotation and a concerning lack of power from Adrian Gonzalez, Friedman might need to augment that depth even more.

    [​IMG]2. Houston Astros

    Rev. forecast: 102.1 wins | Monthly change: 8.7

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 97 percent | Monthly change: 12 percent

    Before the season, the only thing it appeared Houston lacked was a No. 2 starter to slot behind Dallas Keuchel. However, Lance McCullers Jr. has emerged as one of the breakout pitchers in the game. Now the need shifts toward the end of the rotation, which in this year's trade market should be a relatively easy trade piece to add.

    [​IMG]3. Washington Nationals

    Rev. forecast: 99.7 wins | Monthly change: 2.8

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 92 percent | Monthly change: 4 percent

    The Nationals' title hopes are likely to hinge on Mike Rizzo's ability to add a lockdown reliever or two over the next couple of months. That pitcher doesn't necessarily have to be a closer since the Nationals have some quality bullpen arms already on the roster. They just don't have enough of them.



    Probable buyers



    [​IMG]4. New York Yankees

    Rev. forecast: 99.4 wins | Monthly change: 6.2

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 62 percent | Monthly change: 6 percent

    If Greg Bird doesn't get it going once he gets back from the disabled list, the Yankees could need another bat at first base. They'll almost certainly need another starter and perhaps a bullpen arm, as well, if Aroldis Chapman's shoulder problems linger. Still, these are first-world problems for a Yankees squad that is positioned for the long haul.

    [​IMG]5. Arizona Diamondbacks

    Rev. forecast: 94.3 wins | Monthly change: 6.6

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 50 percent | Monthly change: 8 percent

    The Diamondbacks' early success should preclude any salary dump, unless Arizona is bowled over by an offer for expensive but excellent starter Zack Greinke. Still, with limited financial flexibility, the D-backs will probably try to improve at the margins as long as they remain in contention.

    [​IMG]6. Colorado Rockies

    Rev. forecast: 93.4 wins | Monthly change: 16.7

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 68 percent | Monthly change: 34 percent

    The Rockies are probably better positioned to make a splashy addition than the D-backs but might not have to if the second and third tiers of the National League don't start playing themselves into wild-card contention. Getting David Dahl and Jon Gray back healthy might be the only in-season upgrades Colorado needs to make.

    [​IMG]8. Boston Red Sox

    Rev. forecast: 88.3 wins | Monthly change: 5.7

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 56 percent | Monthly change: 0 percent

    The picture for the Red Sox should be much clearer in two or three weeks. With David Price back, Boston's rotation is as intact as it's going to be with Steven Wright out for the season. Now we, and the Red Sox, can focus on a suddenly fragile infield situation.

    [​IMG]11. Cleveland Indians

    Rev. forecast: 85.6 wins | Monthly change: minus-3.6

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 75 percent | Monthly change: 0 percent

    With the game's best bullpen, an offense that should be strong once all its component parts start working at the same time and ace Corey Kluber about to return from the DL, no team might be better positioned to benefit from a splashy, in-season pickup of another starting pitcher.

    [​IMG]12. Chicago Cubs

    Rev. forecast: 84.9 wins | Monthly change: minus-10.6

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 68 percent | Monthly change: minus-18 percent

    I, like many, keep waiting on the Cubs to get on a two- or three-week roll that will re-establish their dominance over the NL Central. Now that we're past Memorial Day and the Cubs have face-planted on their current West Coast swing, it's worrisome. And not the kind of worry that any one trade figures to fix. However, we've known all along that the Cubs would need to add a starter and probably a reliever, too, and that hasn't changed.
     
  4. eric.81

    eric.81 Contributing Member

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    On the fence

    [​IMG]7. Tampa Bay Rays

    Rev. forecast: 88.4 wins | Monthly change: 4.4

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 38 percent | Monthly change: 11 percent

    In my rating system, the Rays join the Dodgers and Astros as the only teams in the top 10 in run production and run prevention. The position players have been as good as anybody's, and, even if they regress as a group at the plate, the pitching should pick up that slack with regression in the other direction. The Rays can deal a starter to plug any specific hole or to shore up their depth. Tampa Bay is well positioned for a full-season run at a postseason slot.

    [​IMG]9. Milwaukee Brewers

    Rev. forecast: 87.9 wins | Monthly change: 7.1

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 27 percent | Monthly change: 11 percent

    If it were just on the position players, the surprising Brewers would be well-served to keep riding what they have. But the pitching has overachieved. Nevertheless, if Junior Guerra's return keeps the beat for the rotation, a month from now, the Brewers might be buyers, at least for lower-cost pitchers. One way or another, Milwaukee could use some clarification on their July plan this month. The happy outcome would be another strong month.

    [​IMG]10. Chicago White Sox

    Rev. forecast: 87.3 wins | Monthly change: 8.6

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 16 percent | Monthly change: minus-2 percent

    The White Sox would have to go on a torrid streak to go from the sell mode they've been in since December to the buy mode. But their underlying metrics keep nudging in the right direction. And don't forget, the prospects Chicago added this winter, such as Lucas Giolito (who threw a no-hitter last week) and Yoan Moncada, are going to help the Sox sooner than later.

    [​IMG]13. Texas Rangers

    Rev. forecast: 84.8 wins | Monthly change: 0.0

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 19 percent | Monthly change: 5 percent

    The Texas bullpen has been arguably the worst in the majors, a big reason why Texas has been baseball's streakiest team. The Astros are running away with the AL West, but the Rangers need to find some help for Matt Bush and company to mount a wild-card push.

    [​IMG]14. New York Mets

    Rev. forecast: 82.6 wins | Monthly change: 2.5

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 20 percent | Monthly change: minus-10 percent

    The only trade the Mets need to make is bad health for good health.

    [​IMG]16. Toronto Blue Jays

    Rev. forecast: 81.7 wins | Monthly change: 6.8

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 26 percent | Monthly change: 15 percent

    The Blue Jays have all their big bats back for the time being and are putting up scores reminiscent of their run of success in the AL East the past few years. A good June could have Toronto looking to patch holes for a postseason push. A bad June could point toward a reset. But the fact there is still a range of possibilities that wide shows how far Toronto has come since its disastrous early season.

    [​IMG]17. Minnesota Twins

    Rev. forecast: 80.5 wins | Monthly change: 2.4

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 22 percent | Monthly change: 1 percent

    You want to believe, but the Twins have been outscored on the season and, despite leading the AL Central, rank just third in the division by my power rating. It still seems more likely that the Twins will be selling in late July rather than buying.

    [​IMG]18. Detroit Tigers

    Rev. forecast: 78.6 wins | Monthly change: minus-1.1

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 22 percent | Monthly change: minus-12 percent

    The Tigers are hanging within sniffing distance in the tepid AL Central. Yet Detroit has shown little to convince Al Avila that his winter notion of resetting the roster was the wrong one.

    [​IMG]19. St. Louis Cardinals

    Rev. forecast: 78.5 wins | Monthly change: minus-0.2

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 34 percent | Monthly change: 4 percent

    It has been a strange season for the Redbirds, who have gotten excellent starting pitching but otherwise a whole myriad of disappointments. Things should get better if some of St. Louis' underachievers move closer to their expected rates of production. But when you're sending a guy like Randal Grichuk to high-A, that's a bad sign for the construction of this club.

    [​IMG]20. Baltimore Orioles

    Rev. forecast: 78.4 wins | Monthly change: minus-3.0

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 26 percent | Monthly change: minus-12 percent

    At the very least, the Orioles can hope Manny Machado hits for a lot more going forward than he has put up to this point. Baltimore also desperately needs Kevin Gausman to pick things up. If those two things happen, Baltimore should be able to muddle along until Zach Britton gets back later this summer.

    [​IMG]21. Seattle Mariners

    Rev. forecast: 72.7 wins | Monthly change: minus-13.3

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 20 percent | Monthly change: minus-13 percent

    The Mariners could turn into major sellers by this time next month, or they could start to resemble the team we thought they'd be before the season if Felix Hernandez and the rest of the rotation can return to action and productivity. Seattle benefits from the lackluster AL wild-card race, but their season could still slip away before their missing players get back on the field.

    [​IMG]25. Pittsburgh Pirates

    Rev. forecast: 67.7 wins | Monthly change: minus-7.8

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 15 percent | Monthly change: minus-8 percent

    The Pirates are only 3½ games out of first in the NL Central. But they are also in last place and have been outscored by 34 runs. They still have a few weeks before suspended outfielder Starling Marte can return. It certainly doesn't look like a contending season for the Bucs, yet the league has kept them in the picture. Count Pittsburgh among the many on-the-fence teams around baseball looking for clarity this month.
     
  5. eric.81

    eric.81 Contributing Member

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    Probable sellers

    [​IMG]15. Cincinnati Reds

    Rev. forecast: 82.4 wins | Monthly change: 7.1

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 8 percent | Monthly change: minus-1 percent

    The Reds had a solid month overall in terms of improving their power rating, but those trends were headed in the wrong direction by month's end, and the pitching staff is starting to resemble last year's flammable unit. The good thing about having a rotation this bad is that you don't have to make a home run acquisition to receive a significant upgrade. The Reds need a hot month of hitting and a good month of relief pitching and, who knows, maybe the rotation can be upgraded, from within or without.

    [​IMG]22. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

    Rev. forecast: 72.4 wins | Monthly change: minus-5.0

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 14 percent | Monthly change: minus-10 percent

    Without Mike Trout, this offense will be dreadful for the next two months. That takes us up to the trade deadline, by which time the Angels should be out of the race. The big problem for the Angels is this: Even if they go into sell mode, is there anyone beyond Trout that would bring a system-stocking return?

    [​IMG]23. Atlanta Braves

    Rev. forecast: 71.9 wins | Monthly change: minus-1.4

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 7 percent | Monthly change: minus-2 percent

    The Braves seem intent on winning as many games as they can this season. If Atlanta were to make a surprising wild-card push, the addition of Matt Adams could emerge as one of the best in-season moves by anyone as his play has softened the blow from the absence of franchise hitter Freddie Freeman. However, John Coppolella might need to pull off the same trick a couple of more times to boost his rotation if the Braves are to stay afloat.

    [​IMG]29. San Francisco Giants

    Rev. forecast: 56.2 wins | Monthly change: minus-19.6

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 9 percent | Monthly change: minus-11 percent

    The Giants are similar to the Angels in that, because they are fairly old, expensive and built to win this season, the utility of a sell-off for them seems limited. Rather than looking to rebuild, you could see San Francisco behaving like a buyer. The hope would be to unearth a veteran hitter with multiple years left on his deal, not so much to salvage this season, but to position themselves for 2018. The unfortunate thing is that the Giants' best selling point in a trade might be a willingness to absorb money. And it's not clear they're in position to do that.



    Open for business



    [​IMG]24. Miami Marlins

    Rev. forecast: 71.1 wins | Monthly change: minus-8.5

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 5 percent | Monthly change: minus-20 percent

    The Marlins' collapse could make them an interesting seller if they decide their minor league system needs an influx of depth and talent. Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon could make interesting trade pieces from the position players. Reliever Brad Ziegler would draw interest as well if he can put together a good month. Overshadowing all of this is the Marlins' in-limbo ownership situation. Is there anyone who will actually be able to sanction a sell-off by the end of July?

    [​IMG]26. Oakland Athletics

    Rev. forecast: 67.1 wins | Monthly change: minus-5.7

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 4 percent | Monthly change: minus-3 percent

    As ESPN's Buster Olney has pointed out, Sonny Gray's re-emergence as a No. 1 starter would change the trade market for the next couple of months. Another A's pitcher to watch is veteran reliever Ryan Madson, who has been lights-out. And Yonder Alonso is a 30-year-old, slick-fielding first baseman who has already hit five more homers than his previous season-high. Seems like a classic sell-high candidate.

    [​IMG]27. Philadelphia Phillies

    Rev. forecast: 64.5 wins | Monthly change: minus-13.2

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: zero percent | Monthly change: minus-11 percent

    The Phillies' hopes of being a surprising contender have been torpedoed by bad starts from cornerstone hitters Odubel Herrera and Maikel Franco. That's probably for the best for Philadelphia, for which better days lie ahead. The Phillies can safely shop Jeremy Hellickson and see if they can get some kind of return for reliever Pat Neshek.

    [​IMG]28. Kansas City Royals

    Rev. forecast: 58.3 wins | Monthly change: minus-3.5

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 3 percent | Monthly change: zero percent

    It's time to pull the plug on a group that brought winning baseball back to Kansas City. It's sad, but that's baseball. The Royals needed big seasons from Jorge Soler and Alex Gordon. Instead, when they've played, their combined OPS is lower than that of Freddie Freeman or Mike Trout. But, still, the final blow was the loss of Danny Duffy for six to eight weeks with an oblique strain. It's time to build for 2018 and beyond, and the Royals should bring back solid talent for the likes of Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer.

    [​IMG]30. San Diego Padres

    Rev. forecast: 50.7 wins | Monthly change: minus-9.3

    FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 0 percent | Monthly change: minus-4 percent

    Lefty reliever Brad Hand is a solid trade chip. Starter Trevor Cahill could be one, too, if he proves his shoulder is sound. Beyond that, the pickings are slim.
     
  6. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Contributing Member
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    Ozuna and Alonso would be the top two guys among position players I think will be reasonably available at deadline.

    Quintana...he's looking like a fallback option now.
     
    #66 Joe Joe, May 31, 2017
    Last edited: May 31, 2017
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  7. Fyreball

    Fyreball Contributing Member

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    When talking about potential trade targets for the Astros earlier today, Jim Duquette and Matt Diaz brought up Ervin Santana. I hadn't really thought about him as a potential target, and I didn't think the Twins were going to be sellers given their strong start to the season. However, if they continue to fall back in the division, and Cleveland continues to play well, I can see them perhaps trying to improve their farm system via trade. Santana would be sick in this lineup, and a Keuchel-Santana-McCullers rotation in the playoffs would be sexy as hell.
     
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  8. eric.81

    eric.81 Contributing Member

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    The only thing that concerns me about Santana is that I've read a lot of talk about how his current trajectory isn't sustainable. His peripheral stats point to him being extremely lucky in terms of BABIP and how many runners he's stranded. That being said, I think we're far enough into the year where maybe he just is what he is, peripherals be damned. I definitely wouldn't hate it if he started game 3 of a playoff series for us.
     
  9. eric.81

    eric.81 Contributing Member

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    What would Ozuna cost, in your opinion? Considering what the Nats paid for Eaton, I'm terrified of what the Marlins would ask for... wouldn't they definitely want Mates back?

    As for Yonder, I would love him @ first base... but could we get a Gray/Alonso package without sacrificing a huge chunk of our farm system?
     
  10. sealclubber1016

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    There really is no such thing as peripherals be damned, that's why they are so popular.

    Less than 2 to 1 K/BB, and a staggeringly low .145 BABIP. Regression is gonna hit him, and it's gonna hit hard. I wouldn't want him in my rotation when that happens.
     
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  11. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Contributing Member
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    Without looking too closely, I think he would project to about 6 WAR over 2.5 years. Not looking too closely at money as not likely to be that big a deal. I think main prospects probably need to project to about 7 WAR.

    My guess would be something like Fisher (maybe Reed), Paulino, and a couple of other prospects (Stubbs?). Probably need to sweeten it with depth. Martes, Tucker, and Perez are probably too highly rated to be included.
     
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  12. eric.81

    eric.81 Contributing Member

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    I like the kid so I'm probably biased, but I pull the trigger on that in a heartbeat.
     
  13. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Contributing Member
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    I like him. I also like Fisher/Paulino. I'm probably off a little one way or the other.
     
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  14. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Cole, Quintana, Gray, and Cueto are the 4 guys I think Houston will zero in on. I'll be very surprised if the Rays sell, and if they do it'll be Cobb or Odorizzi they trade, not Archer. No other teams that will likely sell have any pitchers that would serve as a meaningful upgrade over Morton/McHugh/Musgrove/Fiers except the Rangers, who will probably trade Darvish, but not to the Astros.

    It would be good if Minnesota and Toronto fell out of contention. Santana would make some sense, and if Toronto decides to rebuild they have several SP who could help Houston, especially Stroman.
     
  15. the shark

    the shark Member

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    Cueto can opt out after this season.

    As for Quintana.....think I'd pass on him
     
  16. Merla08

    Merla08 Member

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    Bumgardner and Verlander. The Giants are struggling and the Tigers are as well. I feel like both of those teams could be sellers. If either of those become available, I'd trade our best minor league chips for one. Either of them would make us instant favorites.
     
  17. torque

    torque Contributing Member

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    Giants fans would riot if they trade MadBum. There's absolutely no way.
     
  18. Fyreball

    Fyreball Contributing Member

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    Absolutely 0% chance the Giants trade Bumgarner. He's set to make $12,000,000 each of the next 2 seasons, before he's an UFA in 2020. That's an absolute STEAL, and unless we're willing to throw in Bregman/McCullers or something to that effect, I don't even think the Giants pick up the phone.
     
  19. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    0% chance of Giants trading Bumgardner. Verlander would be an interesting target if Detroit falls out of it. Tigers would need to eat some money for Houston to be able to do it.
     
  20. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Hypotheticals:

    Astros get:
    SP Justin Verlander
    OF JD Martinez
    RP Justin Wilson
    $25M

    Tigers get:
    OF Kyle Tucker
    SP Francis Martes
    SP Joe Musgrove
    OF Teoscar Hernandez
    IF Colin Moran
    SP Hector Perez

    Astros get:
    SP Gerrit Cole

    Pirates get:
    OF Kyle Tucker
    SP Francis Martes
    SP Jorge Alcala

    Astros get:
    SP Johnny Cueto
    PTBNL (determined by Cueto's decision to opt out)

    Giants get:
    SP Franklin Perez
    SP David Paulino

    Astros get:
    SP Jose Quintana

    White Sox get:
    SP Francis Martes
    SP Joe Musgrove
    SP Franklin Perez
    OF Daz Cameron

    Astros get:
    SP Sonny Gray
    OF Khris Davis
    RP Sean Doolittle

    A's get:
    SP Francis Martes
    OF Teoscar Hernandez
    1B AJ Reed
    SP Trent Thornton
    RP Reymin Guduan
    C Jake Rogers

    Astros get:
    SP Marcus Stroman

    Blue Jays get:
    SP Francis Martes
    OF Derek Fisher
    SP Franklin Perez
     
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