Astros Trade option(s)

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by ZeroPoint, Apr 14, 2017.

  1. ZeroPoint

    ZeroPoint Member

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    First time poster.

    Fangraphs had an article the other day about Yuli Gurriel and his offense so far in the big leagues. His numbers are all around very bad and said given his age, likely not going to improve. It was a pretty depressing piece.

    Everyone has talked about the Astros trading for pitching but they recommended a hitter is the best way to go. At the end they mentioned Goldschmidt. The cost will be enormous if the Astros went that route. The comment section there were surprised they did not bring up Reed. If the Astros are not willing to wait on Reed to improve, will they go big or smaller in a deal for a hitter to put at 1st base? Maybe another outfielder who can hit? Made me think they should go all in and get a Kyle Schwarber or a Freddie Freeman type. Cost will be great but well worth it and put them somewhere in the middle of this lineup behind Correa or in front of him. Both are younger than Goldschmidt. I'm assuming Martes and Kyle Tucker will headline in any such deal. Or a smaller piece but can hit and play first or somewhere in the outfield.

    What do you guys think?
     
  2. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    Schwarber isn't a trade fit at all. They expect big league production out of him this year and they're a World Series contender. They're not trading him for anything short of a better current ML player.

    I personally think atlanta is far enough into their rebuild and loaded with enough prospects that they wouldn't risk burning anymore fan goodwill by trading Freddie. They are literally loaded with RHP prospects; none may be as close to the bigs as Martes but they have a ton at AA/A+. They're Astros circa 2014, on the upslope and looking to win more games not less.

    I see almost zero reason to look outside the org for another 1B option. They've already committed a lot of money to Yuli AND have a top 1B prospect in Reed.
     
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  3. bobrek

    bobrek Vamos Los Astros

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    Why would the Cubs trade Schwarber?
     
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  4. ZeroPoint

    ZeroPoint Member

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    I mentioned Kyle Schwarber because many people think he will be traded to the AL one day. He is blocked at 1st base there with Rizzo and he is no outfielder. He looks uncomfortable there and another potential injury waiting to happen.
     
  5. Fyreball

    Fyreball Contributing Member

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    Odd timing for this post considering Yuli has looked pretty good the last couple of games. He's a vet who deserves to have some patience afforded to him. It's a big transition in both his profession and personal life to come here from Cuba.
     
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  6. ZeroPoint

    ZeroPoint Member

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    Can't have too many pitching prospects and I don't think as good as Martes. Reed will probably be part of that deal and he replaces Freeman in Atlanta in a rebuild.

    The Astros are a contending team and relying on a 40 year old veteran and a 32 year old prospect behind Correa for power and consistency is worrisome. Guys like Gattis, McCann, and Reddick are better placed in other areas of the lineup. We need a guy with a combination of power, on base skills, and hitting skills to drive in all these runs if Correa goes down swinging or other out scenario with less than two outs with runners on base. I'm more comfortable with a Freedie Freeman type than the other options we already have.
     
  7. ZeroPoint

    ZeroPoint Member

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    I recommend reading the Fan Graphs article. It has much more detail on Yuli's offensive profile and a more than 2 game sample size. He's 32 and going on 33 which means he's declining too. Also when he was playing for Japan, a better league compared to Cuban league, there were some underlining concerns with K/BB ratios. He has bad plate discipline and does not work the count well with bad batted ball results and exit velocities. He's also misplaced at 1st base given his defensive skills.

    Fan graphs piece makes me think this will be a bad signing along with another example where a team signed a similar contract of a Cuban or international player that failed miserably a few years back. Forgot his name.
     
  8. kaleidosky

    kaleidosky Contributing Member

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  9. kaleidosky

    kaleidosky Contributing Member

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    And now, having read it.. I don't see a ton of new concerns in there. Basically, his eye isn't showing up well yet, and his contact is poor. However, as the article points out, there are hitters who have one side or the other and have come out of it. He hasn't been unlucky.. this is either adjustment or a real slump. If he had a better track record here, people might say it's a matter of mechanics or something.

    Regardless, I don't think it's a lost cause. Nor do I assume he's on the downswing just because he's 33. He's not growing athletically anytime soon, but he's not necessarily in a free-fall either. If he can get a better read on changeups and improve discipline slightly, as well as build on quality contact of late, I think he can still be useful on this team.

    All that said, I hope Reed finds his way onto the team soon so we see what he can do. (Unfortunately, I don't see an easy path for him coming up right now based on the makeup of the team, barring a trade or injury.)

    And if Goldy was somehow available, I would hope we were in the conversation. But I'd also hope we'd go for Quintana first. Regardless of what this guy writes, Keuchel and LMJ are still injury-risks. A team with World Series aspirations needs another high quality starter as a contingency, and ideally to have more than 2 top-half-of-rotation guys in a playoff series.
     
  10. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    Literally 10 of 16 of Atlanta's top prospects (per Fangraphs) are pitching prospects. While its true you can't have too many pitching prospects, trading your franchise guy and best player for more of the organizations deepest area would seem like madness. If Freeman wasn't traded earlier in the rebuild, I don't see him being traded now. And trading for 5 WAR player is gonna cost alot more than Martes and Reed.

    Lol, you're more comfortable with a perennial all-star at clean-up than Gattis, McCann and Reddick. Thanks guy. No one is saying Schwarber and Freeman aren't better players. They're just cost-prohibitive or flat out not available.
     
  11. ZeroPoint

    ZeroPoint Member

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    If Atlanta, record wise, is way out of it in late May, I can see them doing anything. Last year, if I remember correctly according to MLBTR, Atlanta's GM was asked if Freeman was available. He said nobody approached him about it. There was no definite yes or no. Nothing is cost prohibitive until what is being offered and exchanged and agreed upon or rejected takes place, and nothing out there I have read he is 100% unavailable. Also I have read, I believe it was Fangraphs, it mentioned their over abundance of pitching prospects compared to hitters. A trade for more hitters will help better allocate their resources for a rebuild if they continue to be bad.

    Everything you said is pure speculation unless you give me something more concrete concerning their views on Freeman and their consistent 100% unwillingness to move him and no matter how good the return can potentially be.

    I did not say it will only take Reed and Martes. Tucker, Fisher, and/or other combination of parts for a player his value will certainly will be involved too. We do have have the prospects esp. compared to anyone in the division, to make a big splash in the trade market this season and improve the team even more. The question will be, are the Astros willing to wait out any learning curve concerning players like Reed/ Fisher, and Gurriel with a contending team?
     
  12. ZeroPoint

    ZeroPoint Member

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    I think it will come down to how long will the Astros be patient with him and other prospects adjustment periods. It's a contending team and adding another proven piece can go a long way. Projection systems had us as one of the best in baseball in W/L category before the season. An all star caliber middle of the lineup player will probably put us ahead of the Cubs in terms of WAR. Of course, the Cubs have the pieces to do something too.

    I don't consider Quintana among the elite in pitching according to pure stuff and batter ball quality prevention outcomes. Don't get me wrong, he's been really good but if the Astros are going for a pitcher, go for Archer. He's up there with Sale. Also, if Keuchel or LMJ go down like last season, we're screwed anyways and depleting our system for Quintana will not be our best interest. It's just safer to get a hitter and Quintana has pitched a lot of innings in the past few seasons. A safer bet is the position player and then just out slug everyone.
     
  13. kaleidosky

    kaleidosky Contributing Member

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    You say this.. but then

    If we were projected to be among the best in W/L before the season, clearly Quintana as an addition is great. But if he replaces Keuchel or LMJ...how are we suddenly screwed? Doesn't he replace either of their predicted productivity? No one was estimating a Cy Young season for Keuchel or LMJ when projecting the team's record in the offseason.

    I totally disagree on going for a position player and attempting to out-hit the opponents. You need pitching in the playoffs, and you need pitching depth in the current age to survive injury potential. The offense as constructed is good enough to win. Everything can always be improved, but sluggers up the middle allow for the deficiency at 1B to happen and still have a productive offense. Doesn't mean we WANT a deficiency...just that it can be overcome. I'd much rather improve contingency plans at a top-of-rotation pitcher than at a hitter when we already have 3 studs and hopefully a couple more.
     
  14. Mr.Pringles

    Mr.Pringles Member

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    There's a lot of options before dealing elite prospects for Goldschmidt.

    Yuri, Reed and Free Agency (Hosmer, etc)

    The bullpen like the last few seasons has remained this teams Achilles heel
     
  15. ZeroPoint

    ZeroPoint Member

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    Oh, I meant to say if both go down at the same time like last season.

    You can similarly say the same with the hitters on this team. Beltran can regress a lot because of age and injuries and depending on him in the 5th spot currently. Bregman with a sophomore slump and struggles. Does not have the track record yet. Reddick with his huge L/R splits and which Reddick will we see? LA, Oak version or something in between. Of course, there is Gurriel. All of these guys they're counting on in very important spots in the lineup with important production situations.

    I'm not saying which direction they take is much more better than the other. More preference than anything but I agree with Fan graphs on this. The Astros do have the pitching depth with Peacock, Devenski, Mchugh, Feliz and other pieces in the upper minors like Paulino and potential breakout pitcher Armenteros, who I think can help later in the year. I will rather trade for a pitcher for depth purposes with lesser upside if they go that route.

    Quintana is a very valuable pitcher. No doubt here. But he has accumulated a lot of innings in last few years and he's not as safe as a position player will be. Another thing to take into account, he is not a power pitcher and more unlikely to shut down very good lineups in the post season. He's not a Sale or Archer and other elite pitchers in the game. He's second tier according to many metrics in this area. His batted ball profile is not where I am willing to give up our best prospects for. Hitters are more safer anyways. Take them and play them everyday.

    Btw, both Keuchel and McCullers are Cy Young candidates coming into the year. Even someone at Fan Graphs picked McCullers as the potential winner this upcoming season. This was a very under rated staff coming into the year by the main stream media.
     
  16. ZeroPoint

    ZeroPoint Member

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    Correction:

    contrary to what the main stream media said about it.
     
  17. Buck Turgidson

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    Why would the Astros trade anything for anything that is not a starting pitcher?
     
  18. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    1B and LF are relative weaknesses but their lineup is still excellent and extremely deep, plus they have elite prospects at both positions waiting in AAA (Reed and Fisher) with secondary prospects also in AAA (Teoscar, White, Tucker, Moran). So the smart money is to stand pat. However, if they were to upgrade the offense, the best 1B who is likely to be on the market is Jose Abreu. Not sure what the cost would be but it certainly shouldn't include Tucker or Martes, and likely would only be 2-3 prospects from the next tier (Stubbs, Reed, Fisher, Teoscar, Moran, Davis, Cameron, Perez, Whitley, Paulino).

    I would be shocked if Arizona traded Goldschmidt this season. Freeman might get shopped but it looks like Atlanta expects to be competitive sooner rather than later. Votto may be the next most likely but I also would be shocked if he was traded; he's a franchise cornerstone with a gargantuan contract and a full no-trade. I can't think of any other elite 1B who warrant a mention as potential trade candidates, although I suppose Cabrera might be on the block if Detroit falls out of contention.
     
  19. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    If the M's somehow bottom out this season, the Astros should make a godfather offer for Paxton's three years of control left.
     
  20. Fyreball

    Fyreball Contributing Member

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    Absolutely, positively zero % chance of Seattle sending him to a division rival (unless we're offering up someone like Bregman or Springer, in addition to Tucker and Martes).
     
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