Back then, the Astros operated in a win now mode, leaving the minors in disarray or weak status. A lot of it was losing 1st round picks, when signing free agents. Also, Drayton had a reputation of drafting guys who'd sign cheap, not going after the best draft talent. Or gutting minor league talent for rentals. Drayton was handed over quite the talent when he bought the Astros, and he folded his winning hand, and was dealt weaker lineups subsequently. He blew it, and what was some nice runs should have been magical title triumphs. Had Drayton done nothing, the Astros might have won a few titles. The minor league systems were never prioritized under Drayton, sure they got lucky with some talent. But as the saying goes if it wasn't for dumb luck, they'd of had no luck at all. I enjoyed Drayton enthusiasm, he was a fun owner. But I think he meddled too much and derailed the championship runs.
This is fairly revisionist. It's all true towards the end of Drayton's tenure when he ran the team into the ground for a last-hurrah, but early on, the farm system was the class of baseball, with guys like Oswalt, Berkman, Pence, Wade Miller, Carlos Hernandez, Tim Redding, Ward, Hidalgo, Abreu, etc being wow-level prospects (even if they didn't all pan out). Hunsicker and Purpura were universally praised for the system as a whole and specifically their investments like the Venezuela academy. The 1998-2005 era was a golden age of Astros baseball - that was largely Drayton's imprint and relied in large part on a combo of quality drafts, big time free agents, and big time trades.
The Astros farm system in the early to late 90's was very good. Everyone points to players like Jason Lane, Tim Redding, Hunter, Hidalgo and others as proof that the organization during that period held onto prospects during that period. However the reality is the system produced a very high number of players... Berkman, Oswalt, Lidge, Miller, Reynolds , Lidge and Wagner all came through and contributed for the Astros. That doesn't even include the players in the system that were dealt or lost; Guillen, Garcia, Abreu, Mora and Santana.
Whoever this Jedi is whose prophecy it is to bring balance to the Astros, a prophecy misread it might be.
They had a great graduation rate. The astros now have a great graduation rate. Still need to turn some blue chip prospects into vital MLB contributors.
People have fears of going back to the mid-00's zero farm, but that was a product of years of complete negligence, and then proceeding to drain every little bit of what was left to go for it. Luhnow clearly realizes the value of the farm, and Crane appears to be letting him run the ship completely. Even if we trade say Martes and Tucker in a deal, I have no reason to believe we won't just replace them with more good prospects down the line. There are already some promising prospects at the lower levels. I mean, Martes was basically a throw in when we got him. You of course have to maintain a balance, can't just give away everything somebody asks for, but the MLB product is what is most important. Don't hinder a contending team now, for something that may never come.
Devils Advocate: a lot of the built-up of the ML core and minor league system was based on large draft pools and high picks. Now that we're in contention mode, we have to be even more careful with minor league talent usage (for the big league club or in trades). I don't expect our system to reach the heights it did before when we had no-doubt top 20 guys like Bregman and Correa. If Tucker or Martes have reached that echelon then Luhnow and Co. have to tread carefully. They built a deep system but it's currently not top heavy due to graduations.
I've realized that Luhnow has not only built a system stocked with high draft pick talent but also prospered via international FA. There is a plethora of Latin arms that are extremely intriguing and there is no reason to think that they won't be able to continue and re-stock the system that way.
If Luhnow decides to trade Martes, Tucker and Musgrave for Quintana and Jones; I will support it and be excited. Quintana is close to a 20 game winner on the Astros. He is very consistent, gets 200 innings a year and is seldom hit hard. Couple that with the Astros offense, defense and bullpen and win 66% of his starts most likely. Having said that, if the Astros keep their rotation the way it is, I am not overly worried. It isn't as bad a rotation as everyone thinks and there is always the trade deadline as well. The Astros have very good lower level prospects, especially from the international market. They are not being spoken much about because they are not in AA or AAA for a full season yet and most are teenagers. Franklin Perez is a very good prospect that is a half season away from being an elite prospect (assuming he pitches well). There are a number of others too. Most are pitchers but a few bats as well. My point being, the Astros commercial publication minor league system ranking will go down in a trade for Quintana. However, it is quite possible 12 months from now the system will have more than made up for the loses with player advancements. Ownership also deserves some credit. The Astros have far exceeded their allotment for international signings and are paying the tax to keep the talent flow going.
not at all. comparing this era to 07-14 is apples to oranges. there were never any young studs on those teams. if this constitutes a "who-cares-about-the-future approach", then, by your standards, it's literally never the correct move to deal your top end minor leaguers. you have to pick your spots within the window to get super-aggressive and take some shots. trading away martes and tucker isn't mortgaging our future. there will be more shots at drafting stud minor leaguers during this window, other current minor leaguers are going to develop, and more can be acquired . blows my mind that any long-time fan of the team, or even any that just endured the recent lean years, could possibly be gun-shy about unloading minor leaguers at this stage.
Martes may well be a top 20 prospect now and Tucker could be by next spring. I am not overly concerned with the Astros producing top 20 prospects from time to time. I agree with you; it isn't reasonable to expect Correa and Bregman type prospects; as both were the #1 prospects in baseball when called up.
Farm may be able to right itself in 12 months. However, the guys that would likely be needed to trade for Quintana would likely be MLB players in 2017 and/or 2018 so they'll be out of farm system one way or another shortly. I don't expect these guys to be individually worth Quintana's value in 2017. I do suspect by June 2017, someone among the Astros top 4-6 prospects is going to be playing well enough that he reaches Bregman's untouchable status among fans and there will be at least one thread calling for him to be called up. I have hardly any worries about trading good prospects that aren't in AA/AAA other than Tucker who I expect will be in AA shortly. I don't want to see the Peacocks of the world suiting up for Astros when injuries happen.
Here will be the best prospect at each position if Houston were to trade Musgrove/Martes/Tucker for Quintana: C Stubbs 50 1B Reed 55 2B Sierra 50 SS Nova 50 3B Davis 50 OF Fisher 55 OF Cameron 55 OF Celestino 50 SP Whitley 55 SP Paulino 55 SP F Perez 55 SP C Perez 50 SP Chavez 50 RP Guduan 45 RP Ferrell 45 RP McCurry 45 That's still a stacked system and odds are 4-5 of those guys will be Top 100 types by the end of the year. Farm strength is a non-issue when it comes to trading for a star pitcher. The bottom line is getting a good value; I understand Luhnow doesn't want to give up 3 stars for 1 SP2, but if the alternative is looking back on 2017-2019 and not having a championship and wondering if a guy like Quintana might have been the difference, it's a no-brainer to pull the trigger.
I really hope the front office isn't making decisions based largely on possible injury replacement concerns. I understand your logic... but if that's a main worry, you'll likely always be averse to trading high-end/high level minor league talent. And when dealing with teams like the White Sox (not a small market team, still has the ability to go out and sign guys to get right back into contention), they're going to be looking more for the AA/AAA guys in trades. At the end of the day, you have to rely on history... which shows that most AA/AAA players received in trades don't turn into bona-fied stars, let alone everyday players. Hell, just look at recent Astros history when they were sellers of soon to be FA's (Hunter Pence, Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, Michale Bourn).
When you make those grades, what context are putting them into? Those guys aren't all 50 or better grade prospects by nearly any major baseball writer. Are those supposed to be 100% outcomes, 90% outcomes or outcomes*risk? To my knowledge, putting a 50 grade on a prospect is saying you think his likely outcome is a major league average player (~2 WARish). There's not 13 major league players on your list, much less 13 major league average players.
If he is going by MLB.com's way a 50 grade would put you as a top 307 prospect (list is outdated, but that's a good reference point). I would think that is what he is going by
These are my expected MLB.com grades heading into next season. Yes, roughly 1/2 of them I expect will see a 5 point jump in grade. Even if you take the current MLB.com grades for those players, I would argue my point still stands.
While I agree with you about the farm system, When you're trading your top 2 prospects and a young starter that fared pretty well in the majors, you've got to get more than just Quintana and I was the guy who wanted Quintana more than Sale. I've got a feeling this is the deal Luhnow offered for Sale and he wont do this deal for Quintana alone. Hence Luhnow moving on to Ventura/Duffy. I dont have a problem with Peacock being an organizational depth pitcher. he actually did a pretty good job in that role last year when injuries struck. You usually need 8-10 SP's to get thru a yr. I see Peacock as a Straily type. Most teams dont have fill ins as good as Peacock. Put it this way if Peacock was cut somebody would pick him up and put him in their MLB rotation.
Definitely agree with this. Also most of our top pitching prospects don't meet expectations (you can say this about the majority of all our prospects--every team deals with this). Elarton, Appel, Seaton, Paulino, Hirsch, Nieve, Astacio, Patton, Albers, and Lyles come to mind. Some of these guys had a cup of coffee in the show (some a little longer), but for the most part weren't anything special. Quintana has a successful track record at the major league level. He's been consistent with innings pitched and his era. One pitcher who I definitely think will be available at the trading deadline will be Verlander (may even be available now).
Quintana is not an aging veteran; he'll turn 28 next month, is signed cheaply for four more years and his WAR the past three seasons show he's on the rise: 3.5, 5, 5.2. Guys like him are rarely made available and I think the Astros should not stop until he's in our rotation.
