Astros agree to deal with Tony Sipp

7-8-9 of Sipp-Gregerson-Giles is legit.

 

Great news! Loving this bullpen.

 

Glad they were able to bring Sipp back.

Now let's go get another SP. Would have no problem bringing back Kazmir if the $$ makes sense. Need to add a bat (or two as well....3B/DH/1B).

 

Highly doubt we move for McGee and/or Boxberger after Giles. Luhnow isn't on a mission to replace the entire pen. Our pen was still ranked 2nd in ERA last year, IIRC. Still a good pen, just needs an arm that can miss bats. And now we have that.

 

At the beginning of the offseason, there was a chance we'd be worse than last year. But with the current moves, Rasmus, Giles, and Sipp , in addition to letting go of Carter; the team looks like it is cementing itself as a contender for a title. I liked Chtis Carter a lot as a potential star, but he is a first baseman and three years of a roller coaster ride mean it's time for a new setting. At worst we'd have Valbuena take over 3rd base and Marwin Gonzalez take 1st base.

Conger, Carter, Villar, Velasquez, Lowrie, Qualls who

 

Any compromise you make to accommodate Scott Kazmir has the potential to balance out any excellence. Yes, he starts 20 games; that leaves roughly 15 he doesn't start. Or, if you cap his innings (100 seems to be his max), you're asking the bullpen to carry a heavier burden every 5th day, in addition to their normal workload.

I'm with rezdawg here; he was terrible in September. He couldn't get out of the 5th inning in four of his six starts, taxing an already gassed 'pen. If he wants to get paid like a long reliever/spot starter... I might be interested. But he made $13MM last year. Do we really want Colby Rasmus and Scott Kazmir to suck up $30MM of our payroll?

 

Boom!

:grin:

 

Presuming he won't be getting a 5 year deal, most likely a 3 year deal with an additional team option year, I think this team can accommodate those sorts of contracts without much issue.

Where else are they going to spend the money right now? I also don't see a huge deal in making Kazmir an every 5th day starter, provided he's pitching at a high level and responding to the extra rest. That still provides more value than the alternatives the Astros currently have starting.

 

Only if we can absorb the costs and it won't hurt us in the future.

On the other hand, this is our World Series push. If the front office is treating it any differently, they are stupid. The Astros were 6 outs with a four run lead from beating the Royals and would've made it to the ALCS and who knows, may have even won the world series. The 2016 goal HAS to be world series "or bust..' that means guaranteeing performance in as many positions where reasonably possible including Starting Pitching. Given the cost of the other top starters, Kazmir may be a bargain or 'fair value'...there is also the added benefit of not having to give up any prospects. I'm sure Luhnow and Crane are weighing this heavily and it won't be easy, but the Astros haven't won the World Series in 50 + years of existence. Now is the time to go all in and not worry about raising the team budget to mid-competitive levels compared to other teams.

If they can sign Kazmir and add another bat along with the Sipp & Giles signings, the Astros are World Series Ready. And that is not an overstatement.

 

If Astros sign Kazmir, expect them to need more bullpen arms.

 

Well, yeah, as long as he readily accepts terms you're comfortable with... He made $13MM last year and this is probably his last contract. I have no idea where it'll land - but that's probably your baseline - $13MM/year.

And that's assuming he's agreeable to a reduced workload.

Anywhere? I mean... Scott Kazmir is the last man standing? There's not a single other player available who might help them?....

All estimated, of course - but that puts him at the 20-start mark (where he's run into trouble each of the past two years) in July/August.

You cannot stretch 20 starts out over seven months...

 

Agree - they have 3 A-level relievers at the back of the pen now. Then you've got Neshek and Harris in the middle, leaving a few spots for prospects and long relievers to see who emerges.

Focus now for me would be a A-level bat. I think Chris Davis would be an awesome fit - MVP-type bat that could play at 1st, 3rd, and outfield as needed (there will be injuries). Not sure the Astros are willing to commit that kind of money, but i think it would be a worthy investment at $22ish/yr and a contract covering 29-35 years old instead of the typical 32-38 or whatever a lot of top-tier free agents end up with. In a few years, that price would likely be considered fairly cheap with the way salaries are escalating.

Kazmir or another SP would be nice, but would be lower on my priority list.

 

Giles is a nice get but adding a 20-start pitcher and retaining two nice - but replaceable - assets doesn't move the needle.

This isn't an appreciably better team right now.

 

Orioles took their 7/150 contract to Davis off the table today.

 

Davis scares me. He turns 30 in March, relies a ton on power, led the league in strikeouts, asking for $20+ million per....

I think we are better off signing a short term solution and seeing what we have in the minors.

 

The Astros are not done, but adding Giles at the top causes a cascading effect in the pen.

You keep bringing up a "20 start pitcher", but you wanted a pitcher that has averaged 16 starts a season the first three seasons of his career.

 

Power guys age much better than speed guys - it's good that he doesn't rely as much on athleticism. And 30 is about as early as most people come up for free agency - you're getting several years of his prime. $20MM is more than reasonable for the next few years, and if salaries keep escalating, then his salary becomes relatively less than market as he potentially declines later in his career.

The strikeouts are absolutely a concern and probably the reason he's not getting $25+MM/yr. But the Astros don't seem to de-value strikeouts as much as other teams and despite that, he also walks a lot and hits for a decent average.

 

Arms sometimes respond better with more rest in between starts... some arms don't.

Its not just an arbitrary number of starts that could be causing the fatigue... it could definitely be the repetitive action of starting every 4th day, without any time off, that causes the fatigue.

Again, its not something that should scare the Astros away... especially when he can make them better.

 

Not seen a comparison of power guys to speed guys, but power guys age worse than most hitters, after the steroid era.

Only one component, but here's an aging curve for homers.
http://www.baseballheatmaps.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/aging_curve_hr2.jpg