How well do you think the team will do next year? What factors do you see as relevant? How many losses?
I like their progress in the final month of the season. This team will get some help from minor leaguers who will surprise at ST. I'll go with 80-82. We still got a long way to go though.
I have no reason to expect a 25+ jump in wins from these past 2 years, especially playing in a tougher division. Best case? Maybe 72-90? But that may even be too optimistic. More like 65-97. I'd be pleased with less than 100 losses. EDIT: Crap, I just assumed the poll was asking for wins and not losses. I was wondering why people were predicting 90+, 100+ wins. Oops.
I am seeing 110+. The astros have no talent. Take away their first month and last month and this team would have won like 40 games.
Minimal improvements will be greeted by a tougher division. I forecast 105-109 losses for a 3rd straight season.
Factors in favor of WINNING more games: 1) Better talent on the field a) Call-ups b) Perhaps a low priced FA or 2? c) Perhaps Fernando and Abad can find somewhere else to pitch? 2) More experience 3) No more Millsie 4) Better clubhouse (combination of all the above contributing to a better overall team attitude) 5) Veteran fire sale over Factor in favor of LOSING more games: 1) More difficult competition Neutral Factor 1) Unfamiliarity with opponents (this will work both ways) ------------------------ Overall, I can think of many more reasons for us to have a better record than a worse one, although the one reason for being worse is a glaring one. I voted 100-104. I feel we will be in the 101-102 range. We will flirt with avoiding 100 loses but wont quite get there.
I think Crane wants to field a more competitive team, so Luhnow will sign a few money balling, albeit reasonably priced, FAs.
Pitching is the main area where help will be needed in this area. While there may be enough rising talent available on the farm to promote position players at most positions to make upgrades, I dont see enough pitchers ready by next year for this.
Taking a look at the poll, most folks here think we will be as good as Boston, Cleveland & Minnesota who lost 93, 94 & 96 games respectively in 2012?
Who are these players of which you speak? All of the prospecty AAA players (pitchers and position) got called up. If you didn't see any AAA keepers in September in Houston, I don't expect that to change by Spring Training. Next year, we will need OFs and a DH. The infield is set with Castro, Wallace, Altuve, Lowrie and Dominguez and with backups Gonzalez and Greene. The three best OFs left standing were ... JD Martinez .241/.311/.375/.685 F Martinez .237/.300/.466/.766 Maxwell .229/.304/.460/.764 Luhnow aint liking those OBPs. The next wave of prospects should be starting the year in AAA (Singleton, Springer). Luhnow promoted slowly last year, so I do not expect Luhnow will have them skip AAA.
I will be surprised if Singleton isn't playing first base for us at some point next season. If he's not, I think that means Wallace finally became the player we hoped he might. I guess I just don't expect Wallace to become that.
Some of the players I meant were on Septembers expanded roster. In the spring, some of those players will be back in AAA. So then, the statement I made, comes into effect when they are recalled to stay next year sometime. Guys like Bogy & Barnes in the OF and Moore and Greene on the IF are on the bubble and more than likely will have their roster spots replaced with someone else at some point in the year, if not during the off-season. I agree with MadMax that Singleton could see some action next year if Wallace falters. I suspect in the early going next spring, the DH will whoever is hitting the best who isnt starting. We also dont know what winter moves will be made. I dont expect Luhnow to be idle. It may very well work out that the guys who were call-ups in Sept get the start in Spring if some guys are moved.
Fernando Martinez had an .845 OPS if you discount the 4 games he got called up for in June. He is 23 years old. Reason to be optimistic. Too early to give up on JD, but I am down on him. Paredes struggled this season after being called up, but he should compete for an OF spot, and is still very young. I think full years of FMart & Dominguez will be a boost from prospects. You are right that Grossman/Wates are the most likely to join sooner, and neither of them is a significant upgrade. Springer has a chance at making it next year, but not until later in the season.
Losing 100 games is difficult to do. Doing it 3 consecutive seasons is damn near impossible. I'm guessing 97 games.
It's hard to see them not losing 95+ next season. I'd be shocked if there were any significant free agent signings and frankly that's the right move for this team. We'll take our lumps for another year and then hopefully we'll start seeing some serious talent being promoted.
