2017 ClutchFans Mock Draft - Texans 1st Round v 1.0

Discussion in 'Houston Texans' started by Nimo, Mar 27, 2017.

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Who will the Texans pick in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft?

  1. OT Cam Robinson, Alabama

  2. QB Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech

  3. OT Garrett Bolles, Utah

  4. S Jabrill Peppers, Michigan

  5. QB Deshaun Watson, Clemson

  6. OT Ryan Ramczyk, Wisconsin

  7. QB Mitchell Trubisky, North Carolina

  8. S Justin Evans, Texas A&M

  9. LB Takkarist McKinley, UCLA

  10. S Obi Melinfonwu, Connecticut

Results are only viewable after voting.
  1. Jatman20

    Jatman20 Member

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    I respect your opinion Bobbythegreat. Let me delve deeper. Not saying it's correct just my perspective.

    Ravens won a title w/Trent Dilfer in 2000 (1st rd in 1994 TB) passing for 135 yds/gm. 12 TD & 11 int (11 games).
    Washington won a title in w/Doug Williams in 1988 (1st rd in1978 TB) passing for 237 yds/gm. 15 TD & 12 int. (11 games)
    Raiders won a title w/Jim Plunkett in1980 (1st rd in 1971 NE) passing for 285 yds/gm 18 TD & 16 int (13 games)
    All 3 players were 1st rd picks but floundered with original team that drafted them.....went on to another team and won.
    All 3 players put up so-so numbers as far TD's to Int.

    Seahawks won a title w/Russell Wilson in 2012 (3rd rd 2012 Sea) passing 195 yds/gm. 25 TD & 10 Int (16 games)
    Texans Brian Hoyer 2015 passed for 237 yds/gm 19 TD & 7 Int. (9 games started).
    Texans Ryan Fitzpatrick 2014 passed for 207 yds/game 17 TD & 8 Int (16 games).
    While with the Texans Hoyer & Fitzpatrick put up numbers comparable to Russell Wilson....Wilson had a #1 defense
    to carry him through a Super Bowl. Manage the game is what Russell Wilson did. Since Max Unger the center
    was traded for Jimmy Graham the O-Line has been the same. Take away Beast Mode and some key defenders
    and Russell Wilson didn't look so Super. So do you really need a QB to win? It helps if you have someone that
    manages the game.....don't fumble and don't throw interceptions. Buddy Ryan mentality.....get out of the way
    and let your defense win.

    Build up the O-Line and let Savage play. Team would have to build up the O-Line for Romo and any of these
    QB's coming out of college anyway.....only problem is none are worth a 1st rd pk. Maybe Bolles or Ramczyk;
    But they will need help all year from a TE or Lamm as tackle eligible, much like last year. Get the OT after the
    2nd rd if Ramczyk or Bolles are gone. Bolles also was a troubled teen that had drugs issues. Is he done with
    that? I believe Bolles is a changed man.....but every day presents a challenge and old temptations.

    If Luck or Peyton Manning was coming out this yr I would take them. Goff and Wentz are not as good as
    Peyton Manning and Luck.....Trubisky/Watson/Mahomes//Webb/Kizer are not as good as Wentz and Goff.
    Rosen (UCLA) comes out next yr and he has shined in his first 2 yrs. Ge is a product of the Peyton Manning
    camps that has shown some pocket presence. Darnold (USC) is rated ahead of Rosen. Darnold with get
    a chance to rise or fall. Falk (Wash St), Allen (Wyoming), Stidham (Aub), Fitzgerald (Miss St),
    Litton (Marshall) are all rated higher than the top 5 guys this yr. I could build the O-line this yr and coach
    up Fuller and Braxton Miller......timed perfectly for a better prospect next yr.

    Defense is what gets Houston to the playoffs the past few yrs. Defense won for Dilfer and the Ravens.
    Defense is the main reason Flacco and the Ravens won. Defense is the reason Russell Wilson went to the
    Super Bowl a couple of years in a row. Defense helped the Patriots win last yr. You have to have a good
    defense to stop that high octane Atlanta offense. After half time the defense made adjustments.

    Texans defense was #1; but here's the bad A) Jonathan Joseph has gone from playing off the receiver 10 yds
    one yr to 12 yds last yr.....and probably plays off the receiver 15 yds this yr.. He needs more and more of a
    cushion. B) Cushing can't cover TE's or RB's going out for passes over the middle. C) Bouye is gone
    D) Demps is gone E) Simon is gone. F) Wilfork is going to retire probably.

    Texans defense: the Good. A) JJ Watt comes back. B) Kevin Johnson comes back C) Cushing can move
    to Simon's OLB spot.....good edge setter that blitzes better than Simon did; easier for Cushing to cover
    the flats than middle if field. D) Texans like CB Robert Nelson.

    Defensive needs to stay #1: A)Simon & Cushing.....draft TJ Watt (rated #3 best ILB & #7 best OLB on 1 scout site).
    Simon gone while Cushing is a $4.5 mil hit to cap this year; but $1.2 mil dollar cap hit after season. That's a plan
    for Cushing if he can't transition back to OLB. B) I don't like Andre Hal at Safety. Too short at 5'10". I could
    deal with Peppers at 5'11" because he plays bigger. Moving Hal to slot corner. Pool of Corners would be
    Jon Joseph, Kev Johnson, Kar Jackson, Andra Hal, Robert Nelson........??Peppers??
    C) TE's kill the Texans because Hal is too short, Demps was so-so, and Cushing too slow. Can Ballentine
    and Dillion perform? Texans have Ballentine, Dillion, Corey Moore.....move Hal to Corner. Peppers then fits
    in. Or play Peppers at slot corner to disrupt the run as well. Texans would dominate the line of scrimmage
    even better than last yr.
    D) get big behemoth at NT after draft. Wilfork can retire. Huge guys will be undrafted that can occupy blockers
    as the Texans want.
    E) deep cover Safeties will be found even after the 3rd rd. You can get a quality 2nd rd material Safety as
    late as the 4th rd this yr.
    F) ILB is thinner in this draft. Not sure I would take one in the 1st rd of this draft. You know a JJ Watt will
    push for TJ if he is there....and the Texans should oblige.
    TJ can do everything Simon did....probably better. Decent cover guy that can set the edge, and blitz better
    than Simon. Uses his hands well. TJ ran a 4.69 40 yd dash while Bulluogh ran a 4.78.
    G) OLB may be easier to find than ILB in this draft.

    None of the QB's are good enough for the 1st round. Just get Nate Peterman in the 3rd or 4th.

    Peppers is an O'Bien type. Runs Kick offs/Punts/Corner Slot/Safety/Running Back/Wild Cat QB/ Slot Receiver. Mucho bang for your buck. Sure he will be gone by #25th.

    Edited: Jonathan Joseph guaranteed money runs up this yr. cut at season end. CB in anticipation
    by way of ??draft?? Cap space to give extension to Hopkins/Feidorowicz/Clowney
     
    #41 Jatman20, Apr 13, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2017
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  2. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member

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    That was an absolute monster of a post.

    Going through it, I agree with a lot of your points and honestly I think the main area in which we disagree is that you think that there won't be an OT left on the board worth picking and I think there likely will be. So really I'm just going with the "build up the O line" line of thinking that you mention while you are focusing on keeping the defense elite due to not thinking that there is any help to be had at QB or O line.

    The other area where I disagree with you is that you seem to think that the Texans have a hole at NT with Wilfork likely gone and I'm pretty high on DJ Reader

    Also, I'd love to get TJ Watt, but I just don't think it's in the cards. I'm not sure how I'd feel about him being the first pick, and he won't be on the board in the 2nd.
     
  3. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Rookie

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    I like TJ Watt and would love to pair him with his brother but drafting him in the 1st would be going against the grain imo. We already have the #1 defense in the and JJ is coming back. Plus there will be good linebackers in the mid to later rounds ( Tanoh Kpassagnon, Ben Boulware, Derek Rivers).
     
  4. Jatman20

    Jatman20 Member

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    Yes practically an article.

    Well Reader is my starter. The only NT listed. I don't want to move Covington from DE back to NT.
    Wade Phillips liked his NT's small (280 lbs....lol small) shooting the gap; where Romeo likes the NT big and
    occupying blockers. Allows JJ and Clowney to go against less double teams. Plenty of big space eating
    move the nose of the line behemoths there in round 7 or after the draft. No need to waste a pick actually.

    With the OT: mainly the top ones: many scouts fear Cam Robinson won't make it as an OT at the NFL level.
    He is excellent as a run blocker but not very good with speed rushers and was inconsistent. Those scouts
    believe he will turn out like Greg Robinson and eventually be moved to Guard. Parcels rule of thumb get
    the OT in the 1st round......Guards and Centers can wait until 2nd or later. Bolles drug use as teen past
    Good run blocker may take time getting use to speed rushers in the NFL (prob not there at #25...I'm ok with
    Texans taking him).
    Ramczyk many scout sites say he rates well in run blocking and pass blocking but needs
    to get stronger as he is susceptible to bull rushes at the NFL level (prob not there at #25....I'm ok with Texans
    taking him).
    Antonio Garcia and Moton are ok but I would move up in 2nd to take them. I'm missing one but
    I group him with Moton and Garcia. Brad Seaton, Vanderbilt ( in the 4th) or others are fine with me. Only 2 I
    would in the 1st because of pass blocking issues.

    To me the 1st round pick from this draft needs to start. These QB's are going to spend the whole year just
    learning how to take snaps from center. Houston/O'Brien loves to run, and run, and run for play action pass.
    He will run the ball in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarter for 1 yd a carry in order to wear down the defense for
    bigger gains. The shot gun QB's that receive the ball and place the ball in the RB's side is not the Texans style.
    They like to take snaps from center and drop back for 3,5 & 7 steps fake the hand off gen pass. Goff couldn't
    do that simple task most of last yr. You have timing issues......which hole to hit.....simple snap connection.....
    call out your blocking........call out your routes. Most of these QB's have a color called out which covers
    everything. RG III said at Baylor the coaches called out a color and that told you everything. These spread
    offense QB's have to turn their backs to the defenders now in the NFL as they take snaps from center.
    Most are saying that's tough. Mahomes at his pro day simulated snaps from center. Nice, but then put
    a 280 monster chasing after you as you snap the ball. Makes them lose their concentration. Resort back
    to just running with the ball.

    In Houston the routes are dictated by the defense. Not like Dallas where they are timing routes. The Texans
    QB needs to know what the receiver is seeing and thinking. This group of QB's will have trouble in the Texans
    system. Fitzpatrick is as bright as they come and he had trouble. Mallet was in the system for years in NE
    and he had trouble. Brock was in the system before Kubiak.....he had trouble. Mel Kipper knows this and
    has been saying the Texans would draft Cam Robinson for a few weeks now. Most analysts propped
    these QB's up to get Internet hits or sell newspapers. Now 2 weeks before the draft you are starting to see
    some of them back track. McShay says none of these projected 1st round WB's will help Houston.
    Jaworski who puts all WB's in the 1st round has come out and said none are worthy of being taken in
    the 1st rd. You will see others start to say the same.

    I forgot to mention
    Scarlett on the roster at OLB. Texans like him. Not sure he can start yet on a contender.
    Coaches would know.
    Eddie Pleasant at Safety. Pleasant has had his chances but has under performed.
    Demps was cut by the Lions shortly after the season started Abd was signed by the Texans. Took Pleasants
    job pretty easily. Hopefully he Pleasant comes back inspired.

    So in summary for 1st round: I like TJ Watt......Jabrill Peppers.......Bolles/Ramczyk.

    Or trade out of first to get multiple picks. Houston can find starters from 2nd rd to 4th rd; maybe even 5th in this draft.
    I like Eddie Jackson (Safety) around the 3rd rd.

     
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  5. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Rookie

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    Reading your post just made me wonder, is Bill O'Brien's system the real problem? I'm starting to think so.
     
  6. Jatman20

    Jatman20 Member

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    Just one last thing and then I will be quite until the draft.

    A lot of things bothered me about Brock Osweiler. The biggest problem I had was Brock looking at the
    defense and calling trips (routes) and blocking only to have the defense shifting, then Brock trying to audible
    out of that, only to have the defense jerk him around more. Then with almost no time on the clock or as the
    defense sensed the ball was going to be snapped.....the defense shifts into the formation they wanted
    the whole time. I kept telling friends of mine that Brock just needs to run the play given every once in a while.
    Even if it's the way the defense is set up. Defenses suckered him the entire game.

    Hoyer did the same. Hoyer said after he was benched for Mallet he noticed what he was doing wrong.
    He was thinking too much. Mallet did more no huddle hurry the pace to keep the defense on its heels.
    Too much thinking at the line of scrimmage.
     
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  7. Jatman20

    Jatman20 Member

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    Maybe. Friend of mine asked, "if the system is so darn hard; why don't we get rid of it (& O'Brien)?"

    It's a tough scheme to get. Chris Clark came from Denver and said, "this it crazy." "The offensive playbook is
    like Chinese backwards." Or was Odsy Obuoshi?

    My response is, that's what makes the Patriots so tough. Once your players get it......can you imagine
    the other team only having a week to prepare for playing you? There is no way they can practice every
    thing in your playbook.

    Bill's job is on the line. He won't give plays to any of these rookies QB's unless Savage and
    Weeden go down. And then he probably will go out and trade for Hoyer or Fritzy. These rookie QB's will
    be red shirted this year. Then the experts will say that Houston needs to draft a QB next year in the first rd.
     
    #47 Jatman20, Apr 14, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2017
  8. Yaosthirdleg

    Yaosthirdleg Member

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    If they truly love a QB in this draft that is available when they pick in the first couple of rounds then I hope that they take him. If not, then I'm fine with them waiting until next year when there will hopefully be more and better options. What corners do you like in this class?
     
    #48 Yaosthirdleg, Apr 14, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2017
    Jatman20 likes this.
  9. Jatman20

    Jatman20 Member

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    I was looking for Slot Corners and wrote down some names. They are mainly mid to late rounders.

    Keep in mind that Safeties and Corners in this draft that you find in the 3rd or 4th round are material
    that would have been 2nd rounders in years past. Bouye was undrafted and they coached him up.
    This is why they like Robert Nelson. Texans feel he can play if given the chance.

    Then I noticed Jonathan Joseph contact, I believe he might be a cap casualty at seasons end. If the site
    was accurate and I read it right. $0 dollars vs the cap next summer. I threw in a couple names.

    One scout site ranked them: 22nd ranked Chidobe Awuzie 6'0" (4.52) projected 4-6 rd,
    23rd ranked Jalen Myrick 5'10" (4.58) projected 5-7th rd (probably slot corner)
    24th ranked Des Lawrence 6'1" (4.55) projected 5-7th rd
    25th ranked Marquez White 5'11" (4.58) projected 5-7th rd
    26th ranked Damontae Kazee 5'10" (4.48) projected 5-7th rd (probably slot corner)
    27th ranked Brandon Facyson 6'2" (4.52) projected 6-FA.

    I looked at footage on all. They show good potential. I've seen others ranked higher that don't look so good.
    I believe the Texans met with Myrick. In a Mock I created on my own....I have Texans
    getting Facyson in the 7th rd. I like Kazee as well; but he may be gone by the 5th or maybe sooner. Texans
    lack a 6th rounder this year.

    John McClain said the Texans have good developmental coaches. I'm not sure if that's true across
    the board for all positions.......but linebackers & defensive backs I will tip my cap to them.

    Edited: Just saw more clips. Jaylen Myrick ran an unofficial 4.29 40 yd dash at combine.
     
    #49 Jatman20, Apr 14, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2017
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  10. ghettocheeze

    ghettocheeze Member

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    I absolutely agree with you that our focus should be to bolster our defense. That's our core competency and we should maximize it. Like I said in my previous post, I don't see a path to a quality QB at #25. Too many fans are hung up on it.

    However, winning a Super Bowl is much more efficient with a top defense and a competent offense. The formula is there and we can adopt it, we just can't have an Osweiler running it. That's why a Romo or Cutler makes so much sense. We need an experienced QB who can manage an offense, not an Aaron Rodgers to score lights out. Just keep turnovers in check and convert a higher percentage of redzone trips and we are good. The Buccaneers, Ravens, Seahawks, and recently the Broncos all used this formula to win a Super Bowl.

    Yet, the fans on this board want a savior like Mahomes, but fail to realize QB development is a 3 year process. At this stage Tom Savage is further along his development than any rookie who will be drafted at the bottom of the first round. That's why I agree, stick with Savage unless a major upgrade is available and focus all our energy on defense.

    Defensive big board:
    • Jabrill Peppers (SS/OLB, Michigan)
    • Reuben Foster (ILB, Alabama)
    • Malik McDowell (DT, Michigan State)
    • Marlon Humphrey (CB, Alabama)
    • T.J. Watt (OLB, Wisconsin)
    I would take any of these guys before I would foolishly gamble on Savior Mahomes.
     
  11. Jatman20

    Jatman20 Member

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    Yes Denver won recently with a great Peyton Manning who was a shell of himself. For yrs his arm strength
    was diminishing until he could barely throw 20 yds (lollipops). The defense was fantastic at putting pressure
    on the QB with guys like Damarcus Ware, Von Miller, and Pot Roast up the middle. Manning probably averaged
    less than 200 yds a game in the playoffs.

    The Giants won their last Championship with some lucky offensive plays that went along with pass rushing
    novelties of Good DE's along the D-Line.....Strahan, John Paul Pierre, Umenyiora.

    Texans have JJ Watt, Clowney, Reader, Mercilus......would like to add Cushing as OLB or TJ Watt (next to JJ Watt) on the
    other side of Clowney/Mercilus. The great pass rush will make the DB's look better to great.

    I like your defensive board. In post #49 above.....I wrote down and scouted those Corners about a month ago.
    Some players move up after pro days while some move down. A few ahead of #22 Chidobe didn't look so good
    to me. Today I see Chidobe has rocketed up the board. Enough that the NFL has invited Chidobe Awuzie to
    the NFL draft.

    From that same list: Safeties: from 3rd on: Eddie Jackson 6'0" (4.59) projected 3-5.

    Josh Jones 6'2" (4.65) projected 3-5. I saw a mock yesterday w/Houston taking him in 2nd. I would take maybe in 3rd.....probably not in 2nd rd.

    Orion Stewart 6'2" (4.60) projected 4-6 rd.

    Tedric Thompson 6'0" (4.63) projected 4-6 rd.

    Again, I made this list a month ago. I spent a lot of time reviewing any highlights of these guys, followed by
    games posted on the internet, all scouting sites to get a consensus. I'm too lazy to update. All of these guys
    are so close. I've recently seen Tedric (mock) in the 2nd rd. Kazee (CB) in the 3rd (mock). I do like
    Humphrey though. I like Obi Melifonwu in the 1st rd. Humphrey and Obi would be Joseph replacements
    for sure.
     
    #51 Jatman20, Apr 14, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2017
  12. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member

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    What I've heard abotu Cam Robinson isn't that he won't make it as an OT in the NFL so much as it is that he might not make it as a left tackle for a lot of the reasons you talk about. What I've seen and heard suggest that he's a MUCH better fit at right tackle than left tackle though and right tackle just so happens to be what the Texans have a need for right now.

    Of course, teams covet left tackles the most which is why Cam could easily drop to the late first round and IMO that would be the perfect pick.
     
  13. Jatman20

    Jatman20 Member

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    Here are some scout sites I look at: Scout.com, PFF, CBSsports.com (NFL Draft), Walterfootball.com,
    NFL.com. Something negative can be said about every player. The sites are saying what you mentioned.
    A couple sites are suggesting a move to RT, followed by....or Guard.

    CBSsports.com (NFL Draft....C Robinson profile) ...."Robinson was protected in Alabama's scheme with
    TE's & backs chip blocking, dominant running game forcing pass rushers to throttle down."

    NFL.com (C Robinson profile)...."balance issues & inconsistencies as a pass protector are a concern
    Robinson is a candidate to be over drafted due to the position he plays and his size, but buyer
    beware as some of his deficiencies might not be easily correctable."

    I posted about keeping Savage staying upright and healthy. Provide Chris Clark or any OT the Texans
    draft in the 2nd or 3rd rd with a TE or running back to chip block the edge rusher. This is why I wanted
    to draft a TE that blocks (& catches) in the form of Jake Butt (when healthy). People either love Cam
    or hate him. The drug and weapons arrest before the season that was thrown out might make owner
    McNair hesitate to pull the trigger on getting Cam Robinson in the 1st.

    Cam had a visit with the Texans. I will wish him success if drafted by the Texans.

    Other tackles can serve the same purpose as Robinson but drafted later imo:
    Ramczyk/ Bolles/ Antonio Garcia/ Chad Wheeler/ Roderick Johnson/ Moton/ Brad Seaton can all be
    coached up and ready to protect the QB drafted next yr.
     
  14. Wattafan

    Wattafan Member

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    Who they draft and who I want them to draft are two completely different options.
    I want Patrick Mahomes, but he will be long gone so a trade will have to be the option to get him imo.
    Best guess as to who they actually draft is S Jabrill Peppers.
    The QB's and T's they likely want will be off the board so BPA at next best PON should be Peppers.
     
  15. houstonstime

    houstonstime Member

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    It's actually fun to read this conversation b/t Jatman20 and BTG. No one is calling the other a fool, child, idiot, troll... It's really just solid back and forth... Gets me really excited for the draft, as I originally thought I would be pissed if it wasn't a QB 1st and now I think I would be happy with 5 different players. I would absolutely LOVE TJ on this team next to his brother, but it is one of those tough years where that is not the #1 need, but I still wouldnt hate him in the first.
     
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  16. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    I'm on board with not reaching for a QB this year.

    However, I also find it highly unlikely that building up the defense even more makes a huge dent in how far this team goes. It might... if the Pats have a "miss" year for whatever reason. But last year's Texans, with Watt, with a useful high draft pick... still doesn't win that game.

    Now if you replace Brock with Cutler... well, I'm still dubious. With a healthy Romo? That's more likely. With an aging but "bad" Manning (either one)... definitely a chance.

    Point being I think there's a difference between a veteran QB who used to be the 5 time MVP or used to show up incredibly clutch in the playoffs, even if they are now bad/so-so.... and Jay Cutler.

    And while 3 examples were presented of average QBs leading their teams to SB wins... that's three out of 50+.

    The Texans will absolutely have to address the QB position sometime, sometime soon, and in a way that is more than just Cutler or Savage. They've tried and failed on route 1. If they TRULY are in love with and see a ton of potential with Mahomes, Watson or whomever and make the move... I will support that... way more than I was behind the move for Brock last offseason (which I kind of just scratched my head about at the time but got behind and had hope for).
     
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  17. Nimo

    Nimo Member

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    I've been saying "keep the defense elite as you look for your QB" for a while now but everyone is only concerned about who is under center. Keep building the D, improve the run game (requires an O line), and get you TEs that don't drop passes. When you do find that QB, everybody else will be ready to go. Finding that QB requires so much that you're bound to get some duds before you land your stud. And for the most part, the Texans are doing it right. They've stayed competitive with the worst QB play possible. When he comes, he'll be stepping behind the wheels of a fine-tuned machine.
     
  18. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member

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    The guy knows his stuff and even where I disagree with him, it's not like he's saying anything outlandish, it's just that I see things slightly different. On top of that you can tell he's done his homework and he's actually trying to have a productive and intelligent conversation grounded in rational thought. We don't always get that in this forum and I very much appreciate it.

    As to the draft, I'm a bit nervous about it because there's just SOOO many different ways the Texans could go. I'm with you though, there's several picks that I'd be fine with or that I could talk myself into.
     
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  19. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member

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    I'm all for the idea of keeping the defense elite while looking for a QB, but I also think there is validity to making the line as good as possible so you keep whatever QB you have alive and give them the best opportunity to succeed.
     
  20. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    This I agree with the most.
    Of course, if they just have a defensive guy super highly rated that is there for them at #25 that they really think is all that and should have gone much higher, then that's the move they should make.
    But all else being equal, the o-line needs help way more than the defense, and while it'd be great for the team to still have an elite defense whenever they do get a competent signal caller... no competent signal caller has ever been that competent without a solid o-line.

    If we're hanging our hat on having a great team except QB... until we get that QB... then that needs to be ready to go on both sides of the ball.
     
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