2017 Astros Minor League Thread

Cortez posted good k/bb numbers in his debut last season but hit for absolutely no power and was essentially an average DSL offensive player. Will be interesting to see if he is brought to the US this season.

 

17 years old, dude.

 

Ya know, Babe Ruth was once 17.

I'm just saying.

 

Sure, and that means it's more likely he will be able to add power. But, 17 is only ~1 year below league average over there. Which is why if he is brought stateside we will get a lot better idea of what kind of prospect he is.

 

That's an All-Star type ceiling. Damn.

 

Baseball America ranked Houston 3rd in their system rankings. Not only is that great, but factoring in that the other AL West teams ranked 17th, 22nd, 23rd, and 29th, it looks like the stros should be the division favorites for the next half decade.

 

I think MLB is about to head for portion cycle that is a lack of parity with "super teams". Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Astros all are good with good young talent, prospects. Yankees have good prospects and likely will have Harper and Machado soon.

 

Considering how many players the Astros have recently "graduated", one would have expected more of an average rating for their minor league system.

Describing the grade as great might be understating things a bit.

Don't be such a Debbie Downer

 

Yankees and Sox will own the East forever. The Orioles, Jays, and Rays are screwed and won't have a shot until they drastically rebuild (and even then I doubt the Rays will be able to compete with NY and Boston).

The Central will be interesting but I don't see the Royals, Twins, or Tigers being in the mix anytime soon. The White Sox finally did the smart thing but it'll be a few years. The Indians are in their window but once their rotation falls apart (age or free agency) they're toast.

Oakland is out of it forever. The Mariners are in a window but it won't last long and they shouldn't be able to hang with Houston. Not sure about Texas but their future is dim once they lose Beltre, Hamels, and Darvish. The Angels are in a tough spot (a player too good to trade but not enough around him to win now).

So yes, in the AL the Astros, Yankees, and Red Sox are going to be the perennial favorites over the next 5-10 years, with the White Sox potentially joining them.

The NL is more open; the Braves and Phillies will be in the mix soon and several other teams (Nats, Mets, Brewers, Cards, Giants, Padres) will be competitive as long as they play their cards right, but I agree the Cubs and Dodgers are likely to own their divisions for awhile.

 

Anibal Sierra has gotten a lot of time in MLB spring training so far. Hopefully he is showing enough to be slotted in AA, which would be a great sign for his potential. The upper minors is a little short on SS talent (Brignac and Nunez currently project to be the SS in AAA/AA), although there is a ton of talent in the lower minors (M Sierra, Arauz, Nova, Cueta).

 

Do you seriously believe this? Teams can rebuild quickly as long as they have current talent (the Yankees have rebuild was quick and basically painless). The Orioles & Blue Jays were in the WC game last year. The Rays have plenty of talent, even with a few holes. If any of those 3 teams want to tear it down and rebuild, they have pieces that would be in very high demand and turn their systems into great ones.

Thinking anything about the next 5-10 years in baseball is just plain crazy. I assume the Yankees & Sox will be great because they have been that way for the better part of the last 2 decades.

 

Seems like an extremely moot point. There are two core pieces (Correa/Bregman) and a solid utility guy (MarGo) capable of manning SS at the big league level. Plus plenty of other depth to fill in at 3B and the other IF spots if those guys shift around.

The Astros SS position is as solidified as any in the league.

 

Assuming there aren't dramatic changes to the CBA, teams like the Rays and A's are extremely unlikely to be able to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox. We are exiting an era where small market teams were able to compete by embracing analytics and manipulating the draft/intl signing ahead of the big market teams.

The Orioles and Jays not only are disadvantaged by being in the same division as the Sox and Yankees, but they have relatively weak farms and old rosters. Toronto has no choice but to stick it out with their current core, but they have maybe 3 seasons before Martin, Tulo, Bautista, and Donaldson start to decline. Once that happens they simple won't be able to hang with the huge market teams. Baltimore is in even worse shape. They will lose Jones and Machado soon, leaving them with an offensive core of Davis and...nobody. And unlikely Toronto they don't have the young pitching. Put their projected roster against Boston's young core and New York's farm (plus likely adding Harper, Machado, and who knows other stars reaching free agency in the next 2-3 years), and it's easy to see.

 

As to your point about not being able to look 5+ years ahead, Houston (a mid-market team) started their rebuild in 2010 and did the most dramatic teardown in the history of the sport, and their "plan" was to be competitive by 2015 and not really a contender until 2017. That's a 7 year process by design. I agree large market teams like New York, Boston, LA, and Philadelphia can rebuild quickly due to payroll flexibility. But small market teams (A's, Rays, Royals) will have to take much longer and unless some major market inefficiency emerges its doubtful they can catch up to the large market teams even after a complete tear down.

 

Teams can rebuild quickly as long as they haven't burn their system going win-now too many years with mediocre rosters and do a firesale before they are left with too little MLB talent. Also, it helps if not a lot of teams are bottoming out at same time. Vast majority of current top 10 farms either have been top ten farms on average for 3 years or gone through major fire sale.

10 years is too long to project, but I'm highly confident that Astros will contend for division for at least another 5 years provided they don't have really bad injury luck. I'm just not sure that the Angels, Rangers, and Mariners go through a major fire sale. Angels would have to deal Trout. Rangers would likely need to do fire sale this year.

I also think there has been few things that will complicate rebuilding for other teams in division moreso than the Astros rebuild,
1) more teams have front offices that place an emphasis on developing internally, (don't expect Astros, Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees selling off too much of their future for win now [sell off some, but not enough that they won't have a barren farm);
2) cost controlled players are providing more production than any other point in my lifetime. As such, trading good old players is going to net fewer prospects and there are fewer good old guys. Sure the top old guys will still net a ton like Sale.
3) last few years have had a lot of win now teams. Expect more teams are going to be bottoming out at the same time as a lot of AL West teams, but already have better farms.
4) Teams are looking to be more balanced. This will keep them from wanting to trade AA and AAA guys that are needed as depth options .

 

You can look 5+ years into the future as an organization, but you can't know what will happen.

The big problem for us is, we rebuilt with terrible system and not a lot of star power and some pricey veterans. Most teams have young cost controlled talent, which is what you need to quickly rebuild (and obviously you need to hit on that talent). With the new system, teams are signing their top picks, and now will no longer be losing their picks. Teams are at a far more even playing field when it comes to acquiring amateur talent.