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2007-08 Hollinger Projections

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by richter911, Sep 11, 2007.

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richter911 Member

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I don't know if this has been posted yet, but i didn't see it.

Yao is #1 and Tracy is #15.I just hope they can stay healthy this year.

#1 richter911, Sep 11, 2007

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richter911 said:

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I don't know if this has been posted yet, but i didn't see it.

Yao is #1 and Tracy is #15.I just hope they can stay healthy this year.
Click to expand...

This is insider material. Can anyone post? Thanks.

#2 jogo, Sep 11, 2007
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Edit: Lemme just put what it says about Yao and Tmac.

1. Yao Ming, HOU
Yo, Shaq -- pass the torch over here, buddy. Between a foot infection and a broken toe, Yao missed 25 games last year, but he played so well when he was in the lineup that there can be little doubt who the game's best center is. And I'm sorry Mr. O'Neal, but it ain't you any more. For the first time in nine years, the top-ranked center in PER wasn't Shaq, with Yao taking over the top spot.

Top PER Center, 1995-96 To 2005-06
Year Player PER
95-96 David Robinson 29.81
96-97 Shaquille O'Neal 26.91
97-98 Shaquille O'Neal 29.32
98-99 Shaquille O'Neal 30.57
99-00 Shaquille O'Neal 30.73
00-01 Shaquille O'Neal 29.73
01-02 Shaquille O'Neal 29.61
02-03 Shaquille O'Neal 29.46
03-04 Shaquille O'Neal 24.33
04-05 Shaquille O'Neal 26.95
05-06 Yao Ming 25.74

Yao was good all year, but absolutely amazing after the All-Star break. In 25 games, he averaged 25.7 points, 11.6 rebounds, 1.8 blocks and shot 53.7 percent from the field. Making it doubly amazing was that Tracy McGrady was out of the lineup for nearly the entire time, and the Rockets had no other capable scorers. So Yao was getting double- and triple-teamed every night, yet still destroying teams inside.

Yao has always been a high-percentage scorer, but last year he evolved in two other ways. First, he hit the boards. Yao has always seemed slow to react to balls coming off the rim, but last season's 17.5 rebound rate ranked 14th among centers. He was better at the defensive end, where he ranked eighth overall in the NBA.

But more than anything, he was way more aggressive offensively. The Rockets have always pushed Yao to be more assertive and demand the ball, something that doesn't come naturally for him. Last year, the light bulb went on -- Yao ran to the block, put his hand up, and kept it up until a ball hit it.

Scouting report: Yao's ability to shoot for his size is fairly stunning. For anyone to shoot 85.3 percent from the line is impressive, but for a 7-6 center to do it is shocking. He does it despite a delivery that doesn't seem smooth -- he double-clutches a little, has his guide hand almost on top of the ball, and doesn't shoot with much arc. Regardless, it goes in, and he uses the shot to devastate opponents on turnaround jumpers when he catches the ball in the post. He has such a height advantage on his defenders that even with his limited jumping ability the opponent has no chance of bothering the shot, let alone blocking it.

He's also become a much better defender. He's never going to be the most nimble guy in the league, but Yao can somewhat competently help his guard out on pick-and-roll plays and his size is an obvious deterrent to opponents driving the paint. Moreover, he seems to have finally adjusted to the speed of the game. Yao cut his foul rate pretty sharply last season, one reason he was able to average a career-high 34.6 minutes.

2006-07 outlook: I wouldn't put too much stock in Yao's projected numbers for this season. Because of the paucity of effective 7-6 players in NBA history (or ineffective ones, for that matter), Gheorghe Muresan comes up as his most similar player, and Gheorghe's health problems caught up with him at the same age. But that doesn't mean a similar fate awaits Yao.

Longer term, the Rockets should be very concerned about all the basketball Yao is playing. Seven-footers can play roughly forever as long as they don't get hurt, but with players of this size the mileage on the joints and knees piles up quickly. Thus, Houston can't be thrilled that the Chinese national team ropes Yao in every summer, even for minor tournaments like the Asian games. The toe injury last year may have been a blessing in disguise, as it was Yao's first extended rest in ages. He's 26 and he's the best center in the game, but that won't be true when he's 30 unless he dials back the extracurricular stuff in the offseason.
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#3 Hayesfan, Sep 11, 2007
Last edited: Sep 11, 2007
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umm..those arent the complete profiles...anyone else that actually has espn insider?

#4 Mikeylu, Sep 11, 2007
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2005-06 season: McGrady has battled back trouble his entire career, but last year was the first time he missed significant action because of it. McGrady lost 15 games early in the season with back trouble, and then missed his final 20 games due to back injury from a fall in Portland. Supposedly the Portland injury wasn't related to his other back problems, but the trend is ominous nonetheless.

Even when he played, McGrady obviously wasn't himself on many nights, and he finished the year below his career norms in every metric except rebound rate. Included in that were career-worsts of 40.6 percent from the field and 31.2 percent on 3-pointers. The poor shooting pushed McGrady's TS% way below par -- he ranked only 50th among the league's 64 small forwards.

While McGrady continued to create shots at the pace of old, part of that was because his teammates were so talentless that he had no choice (that also explains the dip in assist ratio, incidentally). The fact is he couldn't create looks of the same quality because half the time his back was killing him.

Of course, playing with a subpar McGrady was far better than the alternative. The Rockets were a decent team -- 27-20 -- with him in the lineup, but when he didn't play Houston's offensive attack pretty much went kaput. The Rockets were only 7-28 in games he didn't play, and averaged a measly 86.1 points.

Scouting report: When he's on his game, McGrady is as tough to cover as any player in the league. He's a fantastic jump shooter, and at 6-8 with great leaping ability he can rise up over defenders at any time of his choosing and get a clean look. He also handles the ball very well, often acting as a point forward. He's not the most muscular guy in the world and tends to prefer the jumper to driving to the rim, but his size makes him an outstanding finisher around the basket.

Despite all the attention he gets, McGrady is able to create huge volumes of shots while rarely turning the ball over, and also gets goodly numbers of 3-pointers (until last season) and free throws. Thats allowing him to be an extremely effective offensive player even while shooting in the low 40s. When his percentage climbs higher, as it did in 2002-03 in Orlando, he's absolutely devastating.

Defensively, McGrady has always had great tools, as he has the size to challenge shots and his leaping ability makes him an effective shot-blocker. However, he hasn't always applied himself at that end of the floor. He's picked up the effort level since coming to Houston, but he could hardly have tried less than he did in his final season in Orlando. Additionally, the back issues have made it hard for him to chase opponents around on some nights, and he rarely guards a capable opponent.

2006-07 outlook: McGrady should be able to rebound from last year's disappointment and return to his All-Star caliber play -- if the back holds up. That question is likely to linger for the rest of his career, and its corollary is whether he can be effective in April as he is in November. Houston is hoping to make a big push in the West with the McGrady-Yao core, but if McGrady has to limp through the playoffs the Rockets won't get very far. Unfortunately, back trouble rarely goes away quietly.
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If there are any other players yall want to see let me know and I will post them for you.

#5 Hayesfan, Sep 11, 2007
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Mikeylu said:

umm..those arent the complete profiles...anyone else that actually has espn insider?
Click to expand...

hit refresh ... I hit send too soon... so its edited now

Edit: Now that I look at it... all the profiles aren't updated. Those are all from last year. Let me see what I can find.

#6 Hayesfan, Sep 11, 2007
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The only way you put Carmelo Anthony ahead of Tracy McGrady basketball wise is if they were playing by the FIBA rules. Hollinger is an idiot. Did Bill Walton help him with these player ratings?

#7 cskerlecz, Sep 11, 2007

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Hayesfan said:

hit refresh ... I hit send too soon... so its edited now
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thx alot

#8 Mikeylu, Sep 11, 2007
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richter911 said:

link

I don't know if this has been posted yet, but i didn't see it.

Yao is #1 and Tracy is #15.I just hope they can stay healthy this year.
Click to expand...

Hey, where are you man? Check your e-mail. McGill wants to speeak to you. Give me a message ASAP

#9 zzhou, Sep 11, 2007
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shouldnt it be 2007-2008 outlook..or is this article a year old?

#10 Mikeylu, Sep 11, 2007
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Hayesfan said:

If there are any other players yall want to see let me know and I will post them for you.
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Umm, aren't those projections for last year? It says 2006-2007 projections for both Tracy and Yao.

#11 A00man, Sep 11, 2007
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zzhou said:

Hey, where are you man? Check your e-mail. McGill wants to speeak to you. Give me a message ASAP
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Got it ,thanks.Talk to you over the MSN later.

#12 richter911, Sep 11, 2007
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A00man said:

Umm, aren't those projections for last year? It says 2006-2007 projections for both Tracy and Yao.
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yea...i'm confused

#13 playlife2, Sep 11, 2007

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WTF is this? Seems like Hollinger just straight copy and pasted some stats he found.

69. Lior Eliyahu, HOU better than Hinrich, Richardson, Jamison, Bibby, Odom, Mike Miller?

#14 gucci888, Sep 11, 2007
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gucci888 said:

WTF is this? Seems like Hollinger just straight copy and pasted some stats he found.

69. Lior Eliyahu, HOU better than Hinrich, Richardson, Jamison, Bibby, Odom, Mike Miller?
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Eliyahu wont fart dust in the NBA... EVER. This guy put Carmelo ahead of Tracy, he should lose his job for that. Now, Eliyahu ahead of Hinrich.. give him the PINK SLIP.

#15 cskerlecz, Sep 11, 2007
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looks like the only thing he updated was the listing for this year. None of the profiles are updated yet. I will continue to look, but it looks like the only thing he has is the projected numbers.

#16 Hayesfan, Sep 11, 2007
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The projections look to be for next season, but Hollinger hasn't added his commentary yet. That probably will show up in the next month or so.

His comments/analysis are far more interesting than the projections, and it provides the proper context to understand the projections (e.g. he explains when they are reliable, and when they aren't). It's a good idea to wait for those before pouring over these numbers.

#17 durvasa, Sep 11, 2007
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A00man said:

Umm, aren't those projections for last year? It says 2006-2007 projections for both Tracy and Yao.
Click to expand...

these are old

it was done prior to the 06-07 season

look at the listing of center PERs

it lists Yao as leading in 05-06

#18 Rockets2K, Sep 11, 2007

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They are slowly updating the profiles. On the main page, it seems that the 2006/2007 profiles for Dwayne Wade, Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony have been prepared; just waiting for uploading into each player's profile page proper.

#19 TheBornLoser, Sep 11, 2007
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Why not do the entire team? I see you can sort by teams- I'd like to see what he says about Francis, who has the 4th highest PER after Hayes.

Rockets PER link

#20 Xerobull, Sep 11, 2007

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