Another consideration with the protests is instances of large scale arrests and the subsequent confinement in close quarters in vehicles and in processing. So, while largely outdoors, the protests did result in a lot of those situations ^.
Maybe I'm not wording this correctly but do asymptomatic people put off less of a viral load then those with symptoms? I don't think I have it but I would feel slightly better knowing that, as an asymptomatic person, I'm definitely less dangerous.
Why is 1 a surprise? 120,000 dead in 20,000,000 cases is IFR of 0.6%. That's actually higher than CDC's estimate of 0.4% given in late May. The actual IFR may be even a bit lower than now that we know better how to treat the patients. I just don't understand why people would be surprised that at the 10x/20MM number. New positive test do not mean necessarily mean that the virus is spreading, but more positive test coupled with a significant positivity rise does unless there is a specific reason why the population being sampled is dramatically different than before. So I can be convinced that CA is not having a massive outbreak since their positivity remained steady at about 5%. However in FL or TX, where the postivity is definitely trending up, there is a problem. I agree that the apocalyptic headlines due to the large new case numbers is not useful since testing is increasing in the country as whole, but local numbers in TX, FL, AZ, etc. should definitely concern everyone.
I read in the news that Houston has become the new epicentre. Stay safe everyone! My thoughts and prayers are with you all.
Also my friends, please remember the danger of airconditioning. It is proven to spread the virus. I know that Houston uses aircondition everywhere but now in these difficult times if possible do everything to avoid it.
My friend is working for a restaurant with a known active case. They wont be doing any mandatory testing nor announcing anything on social media. Who can i report this to?
Social media??? If you have Twitter or FB do your thing on there also you could tag local officials as well
It was 2 or 3 cities that performed contact tracing of known positive and they have not found a single case related to the protest but other events. I would emphasis early at this time.
read this earlier “This is the worst possible thing that could happen,” said Dr Howard Markel, director of the Center for the History of Medicine at the University of Michigan and an expert on pandemics. “It’s hard to know how many of those people are asymptomatic carriers, and that’s really scary.” Several factors could contribute to the spread, including lack of social distancing, limitations of masks, and police tactics such as use of teargas and arrests. Covid-19 is spread much more easily among people who show no symptoms, known as asymptomatic carriers. The virus is especially contagious, because of how it is shed from the upper respiratory tract – or the part of the body used to chant, cry and cough. Protesters or police shouting at the top of their lungs could spread viral droplets for which masks are a weak barrier. Holding hands could also spread contagion. Corralling protesters together makes social distancing impossible. And thousands of people circulating together make contact tracing all but impossible. At the same time, police tactics threaten to accelerate the spread of Covid-19. The use of teargas and pepper sprays are a public health nightmare. Both cause incessant coughing. Oil-based pepper sprays cause tears, mucus and saliva to pour from the eyes, nose and mouth Teargas and pepper spray “would be the last agent I would use during this time period, for that reason,” said Markel. “You amplify the possibility of spread.”
IFR was indicated to be much lower than 0.6% from that last meta study I had posted. The median for all cases was around 0.25% and for under 70 the median was 0.05%. There was also an earlier meta study that looked at 66 other studies and it indicated an IFR of 0.38% for all cases. For the entire US we have to take some really big what ifs into play to try to generate an IFR. If we assume that the 10x multiple that the CDC indicated is probably a more accurate judge of infections then we would arrive at a IFR of around 0.48% as of today. IFR also seemed to peak about 40 days ago around 0.57%. I've seen that 10x multiple used for awhile now as the low end multiple for estimating undetected cases. However, everything depends on correctly estimating how many undetected cases we have had and no one really knows. The antibody test reliability and the seeming rapid decline of antibodies makes it very hard to determine anything solid. Completely anecdotal, but I recently heard from one of my friends in Houston who was exposed to covid. It was after him and 6 other guys went out for drinks. One got sick with a fever so everyone else got tested even though they felt fine. 5 others tested positive, but my friend tested negative. Two months ago no one would have been able to get those tests done if they weren't showing symptoms. Based on how easily this virus spreads I would expect that level of infection to be common, but that's obviously just a random guess from me. Also, everyone has recovered fine.
This early huge metastudy what kind of data it used? Difficult to know if any prior to June is reliable after the huge scam that took place. That bogus company provided raw data for many studies. Also do you perhaps know what is the latest estimations for Ro?
