No thanks... Calling Lugo an elite RP is a bit of a stretch to me as his ERA is very good, but below the top tier, and he's never been a full-time closer. Matz has potential, but is really back of the rotation in terms of performance. Next offseason, that offer would be more appealing.
I certainly wouldn't consider a #2 starter in return for Correa giving him away. That rumored Castillo for Correa trade is something I think is a fair swap.
Lugo posted an 11.7 k/9 and 1.8 bb/9 last season. Those numbers are right in line with what Osuna (10.1, 1.7) and Pressly (11.9, 2.0) put up. If you don’t think Lugo is “elite” then you don’t think Osuna or Pressly are either. I agree that Matz is more BoR in terms of actual production, but that was factored into my trade and why NY would be giving up their 2 best prospects along with Lugo and Matz.
This would be the resulting roster from this trade (I’m going to go ahead and assume NY throws in Lowrie): CF Springer LF Brantley SS Bregman 2B Altuve DH Alvarez 1B Gurriel RF Tucker 3B Lowrie C Maldonado Bench: Diaz, Garneau, Straw, Toro Rotation: Verlander, Greinke, McCullers, Matz, Urquidy Bullpen: Devenski, Biagini, Peacock, James, Smith, Lugo, Pressly, Osuna And very importantly, that trade adds 2 Top 100 infield prospects to a farm system void of elite position player prospects, taking an average system that probably ranks in the 12-20 range and bumping it to an above average system that likely ranks in the 7-12 range. The more I analyze that hypothetical trade, the more it looks lopsided in favor of Houston. I think NY would probably balk at including Baty and Mauricio, but I think I might still be ok with it if they included SS Andres Gimenez instead of Mauricio and 3B Mark Vientos instead of Baty.
I don't know much about those 2 prospects but they looked at least 3 to 4 years away from the majors. I'd be very underwhelmed if Correa was basically used to dump salary. Lugo is nice and we do need RP depth, but he's a middle reliever plus we have some in-house options that are intriguing. I don't know how you are seeing that much value for a guy like Matz. All that said this is just off season boredom with the lack of action from the Astros. Maybe I am just overvaluing or hoping for too much from Correa? That could certainly be true.
I laid it all out in terms of where I got the values. There’s certainly a lot of subjectivity and assumptions underlying it. In the end whenever you’re talking about trading a superstar level talent, there’s a ton of variance in how different people would value him. Same goes for prospects. One question to start with would be: if Correa were made a free agent today and said he would only sign a 2 year deal, how much would he get? $50M? $70M? $100M? $140M???
The larger picture can get lost. The Astros have one of the 2-3 biggest payrolls in baseball and are losing some pieces that will need to be replaced and they can get costly. Getting Lugo for multiple seasons would be a big addition to the bullpen (or the rotation). He would be a late inning reliever under cost control. Steven Matz is someone the Astros can plug in as a #3-4 starter for the next couple years at minimum cost. The two prospects would hopefully be spun off for a #2 starting pitcher. The Astros would also save about 15 million dollars this season that could be used to resign Harris or add someone else. Obviously I would rather deal Correa straight up for a #2 starter under long term control but the Mets trade isn't that far fetched. Two players in the top 100 is fairly valuable and the other two pieces are more than just throw ins.
You acted like BoR starters projected at beginning of season performing well mattered a lot. I specified that if Verlander and Greinke are fine, Astros will be fine as other starters are icing. You disagreed and used Strawman that if every other starter was hurt/struggle Astros would be in trouble. I agreed with your Strawman as my post was based on assumption that Astros had normal health, reasonable quality pitching. If Verlander and Greinke are fine, Astros will be fine. With current pen and lineup, it will take a great team or a team playing great to oust a Verlander, Greinke lead Astros.
Last season Chapman struck out 15% more batters per 9 than Lugo. Unfortunately, he walked 115% more batters per 9 than Lugo. If Saves is how you define an elite reliever then I don’t know what to tell you.
Chapman has a longer track record than Lugo and has been more dominant in his career. However there he last two seasons Lugo has been the excellent. He has averaged almost 100 innings with a WHIP of sub 1 and has accumulated 4.5 WAR the last two seasons. His K/BB rate was 6.5 last year. He would make a big difference for the Astros in a vacuum. He is also someone like he Astros have aggressively targeted for a couple seasons.
Unless someone overwhelms Houston with a whopper of an offer for Correa, you sit back and let Correa earn his moxie back. You know his value is down when the Astros even have a Generational talent like him available for offers... Astros have a two year window with Verlander, Greinke, and McCullers. So, Correa isn’t going anywhere. But I guess some GM could offer the farm for a guy who has MVP talent, howevet not all farms are built up equally.... Hence with the injury history, Correa carries a lofty future salary commitment. Is it a farm Luhnow even wants the assets? Luhnow knows that 2 years of Correa in MVP form are worth a lot. So it Makes no sense trading Correa unless Astros are hiding something like a career threatening injury concern. Or some team blows them away with an offer!
It's very common public knowledge that he has recurring back issues at this point, it's not being hidden. He has missed a ton of time over the last 3 years, and has struggled 2 consecutive postseasons due to injury. He isn't just an MVP level talent, he's an MVP level performer. There's no question marks of any kind about his level of performance when healthy. It has nothing to do with his moxie, or commitment, or attitude, he just can't stay healthy. I fully expect the exact same thing this season we've seen the last 2 years, hopefully we get lucky and he's at least healthy for October when we need him most. Luhnow wouldn't need to be overwhelmed to trade him, but he certainly isn't actively looking to dump him either. It would require a good package that checks multiple boxes...which is logistically extremely hard to match up, hence he isn't being traded.
I agree with this but it would have to be a legit #2 type of starter no way they trade him for a package of depth type players just to roster build, and that is what some of these offers are Luhnow can get depth pieces and build out a roster, you don’t give up a player with Correa ability for that
yea as talented as he is, if he were traded it certainly wouldn’t cause the backlash that a trade of Altuve, Bregman, Springer, Verlander would
mid we were in rebuild mode, this is exactly how Luhnow would be thinking If Correa is traded this offseason, or during the season, it won’t be this type of deal. If things so south in a hurry this year, you might see this type of deal next year
We are in agreement in that Luhnow isn’t a desperate seller regarding Correa... As we know Luhnow knows the value of 2 years of an MVP or Cy Young performance, even knowing they can’t be resign. i have my doubts someone would give a satisfactory offer, considering all the situation(s). But I do think Luhnow needs the best talent for this critical 2 year window... I may be wrong, but best value and bang for your buck might be keeping Correa.
