I consider Aledmys Diaz a pretty good insurance policy, and you can combine that with the ability to have Bregman move to short and then you’d only need to find a serviceable 3B. And all those deals include a mlb ready piece to step in (Swanson, Franco, Russell, Andujar, Shaw).
Agree with this. I would add most pitchers peak shortly after their debut. Too many injuries. Guys with arms like Verlander and Cole are very rare.
I would hate to trade Correa to the Yankees... but at the same time there have been rumblings of him wanting to play in a big market like New York. If the front office feels like he could eventually walk and go somewhere like the Yankees, it sure would be nice to milk as many prospects and MLB ready talent as we can out of them. I’m honestly not opposed to the idea of trading Correa and trying to get max value out of him. I honestly think he will bolt eventually.
Not at all opposed to trading Correa for a great starting pitcher. Pitching is a big need for us next year, and many say elite pitching is the one area they'd trade pieces like him for. If we can get Correa for a good pitcher, I'll do that. Highly doubt it happens, but an interesting thought to entertain. And this is why I would really love to keep Cole if we could.
I think a year or two ago the Astros are able to make that trade. Teams are quicker now though to pick up on potential break outs.
From our friends at Astros Country ... Potential Spin Rate Trade Targets for the Astros The Houston Astros made a sneaky good trade last year with the addition of Ryan Pressly. For the Twins he had a 3.40 ERA over 51 games. With the Astros 0.77 ERA over the 26 remaining games of the season. In the playoffs he allowed 1 run in five innings. The dude was is nails. He's continued his success with a 1.47 ERA in 36 games this year. One of the reasons the Astros targeted Pressly was because of his high spin rate. According to Baseball Savant he's second in the league with 3104 RPM. The leader is Pittsburgh Pirates reliever Chris Stratton who has a spin rate of 3105 RPM. Spin rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released, according to MLB.com. The more spin on fastballs and breaking balls; the tougher they are to hit. On the other end of the spectrum the less spin on changeups and knuckleballs makes those pitches harder to hit. Spin rate isn't the only indicator of success. Stratton has a career 5.06 ERA in 256+ innings. Pitch usage, control, command, umpires, ballparks, weather, fans, hot dogs, nachos, and political arguments on Twitter all still play a factor (caveat: Some of these play a larger role). Still Charlie "F" Morton is top 10 in spin rate with 2875 (remember him?). Justin Verlander is Top 20. Mike Fiers 24th. With the Astros in need of pitching help, I decided to take a look at the Top 50 pitchers (and one outside) and spin rate and see if there are any sneaky (or not so sneaky) pitchers the Astros could be targeting. Sonny Gray - Cincinnati Reds Despite a +37 run differential, the Reds are in the NL Central cellar. Gray has a 3.94 ERA in 82+ innings. There are signs the ERA could improve even more over the remaining season. He has a 3.62 FIP and 3.64 xFIP. He ranks 7th in spin rate with 2891 RPM. He's in the Astros budget ($7.5MM this year) and controllable over the next three years ($30.5MM) and has a club option for 2023. Felipe Vazquez - Pittsburgh Pirates Unlike the Reds, the Pirates have a -43 run differential. They will have to make a decision soon on being sellers or buyers soon. This year is different from past years in that there is no longer a waiver trade deadline. It's all July 31 or nothing. Vazquez, unlike the rest of the pitchers on this list, is a reliever. He's left-handed though. Something the Astros desperately need in the bullpen. This year he has a 1.80 ERA in 35 innings. His 2765 RPM ranks 26th in the league. He's signed through 2021 (four years $22MM) with club options for 2022 and 2023. Marcus Stroman - Toronto Blue Jays The Blue Jays own a -77 run differential in a AL East dominated by New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays (yes the Rays), and Boston Red Sox. There's already talk of Stroman and the Astros. Stroman has a 3.18 ERA over 105+ innings. He's 32nd in spin rate. His 3.82 FIP and 4.16 xFIP suggest he may have some clunkers in the second half of the season. He's a free agent in 2021. Tanner Roark - Cincinnat Reds Roark has a 3.36 ERA or 85+ innings. He ranks 38th in spin rate Like Stroman, his 3.50 FIP and 4.39 xFIP suggest that there are some bad outings ahead. He's controllable through the end of next season and someone that probably won't cost as much as a Gray or Stroman. James Taillon - Pittsburgh Pirates Right at 50th in spin rate is Taillon. Unfortunately, he's on the 60-day IL and was recently cleared to play catch. I doubt he's traded. Matthew Boyd - Detroit Tigers This was suggested by Michael Shopoff (@mshopoff) on Twitter. Boyd was recently connected to the Astros by Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Boyd has a 3.72 ERA in 101+ innings. His 3.58 FIP and 3.52 xFIP are a good indicator of continued success. He ranks 152 in spin rate. A fourseam (50%) and slider (35%) are the pitches he uses the most. He's dropped his sinker, curve, and changeup for the most part this year.
I don’t think Boyd fits Houston’s MO. Stroman is probably the most likely target. Bumgarner also seems logical if they can’t get somebody with more control. If Cincy is willing to be reasonable on Gray I would really like him as a target. Something like Bukauskas and Fisher seems fair. I’ve wondered if Houston might trade for Fiers again. Should cost virtually nothing and would solidify the back of the rotation.
My concern about Gray is that the Yankees probably tried to implement similar changes to his pitch mix, and he wasn't great there, so that opens some concerns about how he'll perform in Houston. Stroman is a heavy sinker guy who actually has pretty good spin on his rarely used 4 seam. I could see them doing something similar to what they have done with Miley where he still uses his weak-contact inducing pitches heavily, but having him throw the 4 seam up every now and again to fish for strikeouts. Not sure how willing they'd be to outbid the competition for him though.
My 2 cents Gray: I wouldn't be surprised if Yankee Stadium is what caused his troubles. "Being a Yankee" is clearly not for everybody, and you have to admit, some pitchers get strong butterflies in their stomach pitching there. Look at his home/road splits. I think Sonny is that type of guy who couldn't handle the bright lights of Yankee Stadium. Not opposed if Cincy will trade him at a fair price. Boyd: Astros are interested in him, so I don't think the "he doesn't fit Houston’s MO" is true. He has a nasty slider, that plays well with us considering how much we love breaking balls. Good control, elite K/BB numbers, but bad HR rate. Would fit right in with JV and Cole in that regard LOL. Stroman: Intriguing candidate. Not as much control, but that article talking about his arsenal got me a LOT more interested. Sounds like a Zack Wheeler with the extra year of control. Me too. Probably will be high, especially for a rental. Used to love Tony Watson, and strongly advocated for signing him after 2017, but looking at his advanced stats (FIP almost TWICE as high as ERA), no thanks. Not many walks, but not many strikeouts either. Also, anyone interested in getting Vogt from SF as well if we need a backup catcher?
What is your gut feeling? Do you think Houston will trade sooner or wait closer to the deadline to make a move? They need someone for Sunday. We know Peacock won't throw until after the All Star game. You would think they need to make a move sooner just because they don't have anyone really to step in. Peacock might not be ready.
Just a gut feeling (I have no connections to the Astros organization itself or any inside info), but I think the earliest we'll see a trade is during the ASB. We will need somebody for Sunday, but I think Cy Sneed is lined up for that role. I would prefer making a move or two sooner to a) help us get more wins now to help us in the AL standings, and, more importantly, b) so that somebody else doesn't beat us to him (like the Yanks did with Encarnacion), but that's not how the FO thinks, so don't expect anything until at least then.
I don't think the Astros were really involved with Encarnacion. Both Kaplan and the Mariners beat writer mentioned the Astros weren't a factor, so the only person reporting that they were was a Yankees reporter, which seems dubious.
Urquidy? Astros are on pace to win 102 games. Astros will place getting best starter possible in playoffs over rushing it to have a starter for one more start in the middle of the regular season. That said, I think Astros want to see Urquidy face MLB batters now as he may be facing them in the postseason.
