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SB Nation: The Rockets’ title window might really be closed

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Clips/Roxfan, May 11, 2019.

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  1. Clips/Roxfan

    Clips/Roxfan Member

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    The Rockets’ title window might really be closed

    Never say never, but upgrading this Rockets team is going to be a major challenge given its age and salaries.
    By Kristian Winfield@Krisplashed

    For the fourth time in five seasons, the Rockets suffered a disappointing playoff exit at the hands of the Golden State Warriors. Last season, they blew a 3-2 series lead, missing 27 consecutive threes in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals — one of two games that series Chris Paul missed with a hamstring injury. This time, they somehow one-upped themselves, losing a win-or-go-home elimination game on their own home floor to a diet Warriors team missing both Kevin Durant and DeMarcus Cousins to leg injuries.

    So what now? Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta hinted toward possible changes coming to the roster.



    “I have five great starters, and they’re all great,” Fertitta said, applauding their achievements of the past two seasons. “But if we can make this team better, we’re gonna make this team better. And that’s just a fact. ... It’s my job to make sure we put the best team we can put on the court next year.

    “I can promise you, we’re gonna win some championships with James Harden. OK?” he continued. “Because we’re not gonna sit here. We’re gonna go to battle every year. We’re gonna have a strong offseason, and we’re gonna do whatever we can do to be a better team. OK? We are not gonna sit on our hands. I can promise you that.”

    How will they do that? Good question: The only promise of Houston’s upcoming offseason is that the Rockets are capped out.

    Houston has $115 million in guaranteed salaries committed to just five players on the roster: Harden, Paul, Clint Capella, Eric Gordon, and P.J. Tucker. Houston had one of the best starting 5s in all of basketball, so you can understand its collective price tag. The Rockets are set to be a good team next year at the very least.

    But NBA has projected its salary cap for the 2019-20 season at $109 million, which means the Rockets won’t be able to sign free agents outside of their mid-level exception and minimum contracts. The Rockets also don’t have a pick in this year’s NBA Draft, and they will likely lose key role players like Gerald Green, Austin Rivers and Iman Shumpert to other teams with deeper pockets. Houston also risks losing restricted free agent Danuel House, who gave the team a boost during the season, if another team makes a large enough offer for his services.

    If there’s a silver lining, it’s that all those players were acquired with limited resources this season to replace outgoing vets from the 2017-18 team, like Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. Rivers was acquired well below market value after the Suns bought his contract out. Shumpert was acquired in a three-team trade with Sacramento and made $11 million last season. Green could return on another minimum contract and proved he can still catch fire from the perimeter when given the opportunity. House signed a two-way G-League deal with the Rockets, who then converted his contract for the remainder of the year.

    Houston is certainly used to filling out its roster on a budget. It must do so again.

    But Houston also faces another harsh reality: The stars aren’t getting any younger.
    James Harden will be 30 this offseason and has a four-year, $169 million extension that kicks in next season. Chris Paul just turned 34 and has three years and $124 million left on his deal. The final season of that contract will pay him $44 million the same year he turns 37. The Rockets will need to be creative to find them help, and quick.

    Daryl Morey is as creative a general manager as you’ll find in the NBA. He acquired Paul in 2017 despite not having cap space to do so, and nearly nabbed Jimmy Butler back in November. But the Rockets’ only real trade chips this time around are Gordon, Tucker, and Capela, who had a nightmare series against Golden State. They would never deal Harden, and Paul’s contract is ghastly. It doesn’t seem like the Rockets have close to the assets necessary to land a third star. Does Morey have another trick up his sleeve?

    Barring a seismic trade, Houston will have Fertitta’s “five great starters,” plus whoever else they can get to fill out the roster. In that case, Fertitta said he hopes some of his culture rubs off on the team he’s owned for only one season.

    “I’m a Wildcatter. Wildcatters are fearless. You’ll go drill and get a dry hole and you move on to the next one. You keep drilling holes until you run out of money or get rich. The people who have come here decided to take on that mentality, in Texas and in Houston. We’re Texans. We will do whatever it takes to succeed.”

    Who is Tilman Fertitta? SB Nation’s Steven Godfrey spent the past two years learning exactly what makes the ambitious new Houston Rockets owner tick.

    “I’m a fighter, and that’s my culture,” he said. “And I think the longer that I own this team, they’re gonna pick up more of my culture. We had ‘em. We should have stepped on their throats [in Game 4], and cut their throat. It’s not let’s make a few shots and win. It’s step on their throat, and let’s take it back to Houston and end it in six.

    “We’ll pick up a few Tilman-isms along the way next year.”

    If Houston’s sole goal is to finally beat the Warriors, they’ll have some help. Durant could leave the Warriors in free agency, and Golden State won’t be able to replace him. Then again, the Rockets did just blow a chance to defeat a Durant-less Warriors team on their home floor.

    Worse, the West isn’t just the Warriors’ show, either. The young Nuggets will only get better. The Trail Blazers are a team no one wants to see in the playoffs. The Thunder will have a chip on their shoulder after a first-round exit. LeBron James isn’t missing the playoffs two seasons in a row. The Clippers are the right max player (or two) away from becoming the West favorite. If the Jazz ever get Donovan Mitchell some help, they’ll be a tough opponent as well. You never bet against Gregg Popovich’s Spurs, and the Kings, Timberwolves and Mavericks are each wild cards next season.

    Then there are the Rockets, who may very well bring back the same starting five, only a year older, with a bench not nearly as deep as this year’s.

    The Rockets have an MVP in Harden and one of the league’s best general managers in Morey, so you can never say the window is fully shut. But if this version of the fully-healthy Rockets wasn’t enough to beat the short-handed Warriors, will they ever be?
    https://www.sbnation.com/2019/5/11/...ster-salaries-future-daryl-morey-james-harden
     
    #1 Clips/Roxfan, May 11, 2019
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  2. saleem

    saleem Contributing Member

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    We all know this, the team can't get better. Perhaps it does need to be blown up. Morey doesn't have the vision to rebuild this team. Get a new GM and a new coaching staff plus better scouts and a experienced sports psychologist for starters.
     
    #2 saleem, May 11, 2019
    Last edited: May 11, 2019
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  3. bobloblaw

    bobloblaw Contributing Member

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    Wildcatter? Lol.

    What are we going to do? As this article indicates, probably only shuffle our entire bench for other vets. Not looking forward to this offseason.
     
    #3 bobloblaw, May 11, 2019
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  4. caneks

    caneks Rookie

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    It only means one thing. The rockets do not have general manager good enough to know what it really takes to have a championship team and how to build one.

    IMO, Rockets never had any window for championship under Morey, not in foreseeable future either.
     
    #4 caneks, May 11, 2019
    Last edited: May 11, 2019
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  5. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    The problem is even if Durant leaves and leaves the West without a clear #1 team...we still have to consider the teams out East.

    The only moves we can make are ones of desperation for players that also have bad contracts.

    Gordon Hayward or Kevin Love basically.

    It's either that, hope some team does something really dumb for us, or just basically run it back and hope for the best.
     
    #5 JayGoogle, May 11, 2019
  6. jayhow92

    jayhow92 Member

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    This is just flat out wrong. We were in Gm 7 of the WCF last year (which was basically the league finals). We had a championship window, but not so much now unless some sort of overhaul is done with the team for next season.
     
    #6 jayhow92, May 11, 2019
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  7. J Sizzle

    J Sizzle Member

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    It was always closed. We never will beat the Warriors.
     
    #7 J Sizzle, May 11, 2019
  8. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    [​IMG]
     
    #8 J.R., May 11, 2019
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  9. J Sizzle

    J Sizzle Member

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    That was why last year was the true missed opportunity. We would have swept the Cavaliers last year. This year? Even if we beat the Warriors...Bucks are probably the favorite over us.
     
    #9 J Sizzle, May 11, 2019
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  10. Le$$

    Le$$ Member

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    [​IMG]
     
    #10 Le$$, May 11, 2019
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  11. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    Bucks, Raptors if they resign Kawhi, hell if Durant does leave he's forming a super team in New York. The Knicks have a very good chance at either getting 2 max players AND a top 3 draft pick...or could trade that draft pick for Anthony Davis or something. Knicks going to prove that making these super teams is pure luck because they about to stumble their way into one.

    Rockets can at least compete in the West I guess but they've given no hope for even beating the Warriors without Durant so...
     
    #11 JayGoogle, May 11, 2019
  12. count_dough-ku

    count_dough-ku Contributing Member

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    We can depending on who they lose. Boogie is gone for sure. Durant sounds like he might be. Iggy and Livingston will be 36 and 34 respectively. And Looney, Bell, Jerebko, Bogut, and Cook are all free agents. They may not be able to afford Bogut given their cap and tax situation. And Looney made only $1.5 mil this season and is likely gonna get offered something after what he did against the Rockets.

    So there's a decent chance the Warriors will return with Curry, Thompson, Iggy, and Green and a bench of only Livingston, McKinnie, and Jones. They'll sign a few players here and there for the minimum, but that core does not scare me at all. They'll be worn down by the playoffs.
     
    #12 count_dough-ku, May 11, 2019
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  13. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    they werent even able to beat them just now without those guys. and that's with their backs against the wall. theres nothing that says the rockets are capable of beating them a year later on an already aging team

    window is shut. the only thing that's opening it is a kd or someone of that nature. otherwise, itll be the same exact thing next year. win 50+ games, 1st or 2nd round exit.
     
    #13 YOLO, May 11, 2019
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  14. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    We still can’t beat GSW without Durant. Don’t even have to think about the East.... though there are 3 teams there more talented than this roster.
     
    #14 JayZ750, May 11, 2019
  15. count_dough-ku

    count_dough-ku Contributing Member

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    Do you seriously think the Warriors are gonna be the same threat sans Durant, Boogie, and possibly Looney? Especially if Curry, Thompson, Green, and Iggy have to carry a much heavier load all season long? The Warriors are able to coast through the regular season every year, especially after signing Durant. They sleepwalked through this year and still were tops in the West with 57 wins. That luxury goes away with those free agent defections. They'll have to go back to actually playing hard for 48 minutes to win 55+ games. That'll take a toll by the time the postseason rolls around, just like it always does with Harden and the load he has to shoulder.
     
    #15 count_dough-ku, May 11, 2019
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  16. caneks

    caneks Rookie

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    should, would != did

    Championship team should have stars developed from your own draft picks. if you do not have that kind of stars, you basically has no window. Capela is the only one close to that category in this team. Rockets, Celtics, Raptors with or without Kawhi Leonard are in similar situation, they all have no window.
     
    #16 caneks, May 11, 2019
  17. J Sizzle

    J Sizzle Member

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    Lmao

    They just embarrassed us with that lineup last night.

    They own us. Always will. I’ve accepted it.
     
    #17 J Sizzle, May 11, 2019
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  18. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    they've shown nothing to believe otherwise. as soon as kd went down, they flipped the switch and refused to let GS lose. their mentality never wavered. its every year we hope the warriors fall off. were now in what year 5 and the rockets get that much older.

    yeah sorry, the rockets just dont have what it takes with this team unless again kd or someone like that opens up that window
     
    #18 YOLO, May 11, 2019
    Last edited: May 11, 2019
  19. Gray_Jay

    Gray_Jay Member

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    Assuming Fertitta doesn't mind spending this next season, one way the Rockets can improve is to offer to take on salary from teams starting at a possible repeater tax penalty. OKC is an obvious candidate, but the Blazers look like they'll pay tax this next year. If spotrac is right, they just missed paying tax in 2017 by something like 750 bucks. Which is amazing.

    Who, if anyone, on OKC, the Blazers, or anyone else projected to be in cap trouble, should the Rockets target? Are any of the Rockets young talent, like Hart or Clark, valued by other teams enough that those teams would take them in exchange for better, but much more highly paid players?

    Is OKC thinking of blowing it up? As bad as the Rockets situation is, at least they aren't paying hideous amounts of tax to flame out in the first round.
     
    #19 Gray_Jay, May 11, 2019
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  20. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    I think we could beat this GSW team in a 7 game series, even after last night.

    They got hot for a night, they wanted the W more, everyone they put out on the court contributed...it happens. Clippers beat that team twice, once doing so in epic comeback fashion...and they had Durant. I feel like if Durant got hurt game 1 we win the series...but you tell Curry and Klay they have to just win one more game and they will get Durant back next season...they smelled that championship...Rockets didn't.

    I think if Durant leaves they are in trouble. Looney will go secure the bag. Iggy will be a year older. Durant leaving ends their window and opens up the West for...who knows who.

    I mean you're right, this game doesn't inspire much confidence but...I always predicted that game 6 would be this way.
     
    #20 JayGoogle, May 11, 2019
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