As a general rule, I have no problem with structuring your offensive game plan around the most efficient shots in the game, namely the layups, threes, and FTs. But a clear distinction has to be made between prioritizing those shots and getting too dogmatically attached. For instance, among all 16 playoff teams, Spurs rank 2nd in shooting frequency from 10-16 feet 7th in shooting frequency from 16 <3P (probably the worst range in Morey's eyes), while only coming in at 12th in 3PT frequency and 9th from 0-3 feet. Even the teams such as GSW and CLE that take a lot of threes, they are much less adamant about sticking to this no mid-range rule (CLE 7th from 3-10 feet, GSW 6th from 10-16 feet and 5th from 16<3p.) Houston, on the other hand, is 14th from 3-10 feet, 16th from 10-16 feet, and 16th from 16<3P. http://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2017.html All elite teams have at least one mid-range zone where they they take relatively large number of shots compared to others. Houston has none; it's mostly within 3 feet from the basket or beyond the arc. The top three teams in terms of ORtg in the current playoffs are the Warriors, Cavs, and the Spurs, and they all take much more 'inefficient' shots than we do. Houston finished with mediocre 7th, and again, we are the team that is supposed to be the most efficient in theory, but of course the reality is this one-trick pony offense becomes way too predictable and easy to plan against, especially for a great defensive unit such as the Spurs. Great teams take advantage of whatever the best shot happens to be at the moment. Houston doesn't do that; they don't deviate from their initial game plan even when the opponent is literally giving you wide open looks from the mid-range to focus all their defensive attention at guarding the three point-line and the rim. So we'd rather take contested layups and threes over uncontested mid-Js. 'Cause, you know, we have to stick to Moreyball no matter what.
Right, the whole idea that 3's are worth more than 2's only holds if the probability of making those shots stays consistent. In other words, if the defense (or any other factor) is lowering the probability of a made 3 to such an extent that a 2 pointer is more valuable - you should take the 2 pointer. It's really not even that complicated. People credit D'Antoni as the originator of this modern offense and the Warriors are the highest peak of it.. but neither the old Suns or the current Warriors seem to limit themselves the way we do. D'Antoni's original strategy was more about pace and space than a rigid worship of three pointers. And the Warriors are more about transition basketball and half-court movement. Moreyball is too cold and calculating, so far. Harden going away from his step-back two and falling in love with pull-up threes was bad for his game.
We don't really have 2pt shooters besides Harden. I agree he should improve and take more mid-range shots, but besides that, I'd only let a dominant low post scorer take twos. Also, Clutch should really merge the "MOREYBALL DOESN'T WORK GUYS" threads
Open mid range 2 point jumper >>>> Pull up closely contested 3 14/15 season, Harden had a solid mid range game which funny enough opened up other aspects of his game. Something tells me Maury has told him and other Rockets to limit 2 point jumpers
We just need better shooters. Does anybody aasume Arizas shot is going in when he let's it go? I dont.
It definitely is too complicated for Maurey. Or is it MDA? I don't know, but it seems someone is too stupid to run this organization.
I don't consider either of them stupid. And MDA used a different strategy before. I think Morey is just miscalculating a few things. And I'm sure neither of them told our team to stand in one place and dribble out all of the shotclocks in game 5.
I agree, the Cavs and the Warriors do take a lot of threes and drives to the rim but they take any open shot the defense gives them including the mid range jumper. An open mid range jumper is better than a contested 3. The Rockets offense is too predictable when facing a good defensive team in a 7 game series because they limit themselves. The other problem this series showed with Morey putting the team together is the lack of bigs, we lost Nene (who has had an injury history in his career) and Harden has to spend time guarding PF in the post. The team is guard heavy, in that the other bigs we have are too small/bad rebounder (Harrell) or inexperienced (Onauku). The team needs another shot blocker, it is virtually a lay up drill with Anderson at center. The other thing is we have too few players that the coach trusts in the playoffs.
I am not sure if the problem was entirely with the offensive strategy of the Rockets. I think there's the issue of a lack of talent.
What they ran in Pheonix was much better than what the Rockets are running right now. They had a mid-range game, three-point game and post game with Stoudemire. Until the Rockets change their philosophy, they aren't going anywhere.
The spurs were packing the paint and defending the three point line. They were just daring the rockets to shoot midrange shots and they wouldn't. Instead they drove to the basket where there was a defender. It was kind of comical. I under stand the 3 and layup strategy, but if you are an NBA player I hope you can hit a open 10 footer 60%+ of the time.
Houston's offensive system plays a part in having a game like Harden did in game 6. Once Pop made the adjustment to starting Gasol and Aldridge together the driving lanes dried up, and the refs weren't calling any fouls on drives either. So if lay ups and free throws aren't available, that leaves only the three point shot, which Harden seemed to have no confidence in and was struggling with at the end of game 5 and throughout game 6. If he could have gone to his step back jumper, maybe he could have gained some confidence and got into a rhythm.
I think Morey will continue to evolve too. He's got a full season of evidence in a D'Antoni system what needs to change. Where I see that evolution is in getting more movement off the ball. Late in the season D'Antoni started to do some really nice things I hadn't seen him do all season and really haven't seen since the Phoenix/Nash days. For the trio of Harden/Moreyball/D'Antoni to work more effective the thing that has to improve (that is evident in comparing the Nash era & the Harden era) is they HAVE TO get the ball up the court as quick as possible with start the motions off the ball much sooner. That opens up everything for their offense. They do take way too many contested 3's though when they don't get in their offense quick enough. That's key IMO that has to improve next season.
It's not!!! It's r****ds like harden that F up everything....If the man play with heart, this team can beat anyone. I am retired of people blaming the system and not the dam dude that gave up on his team...**** r****ded
As i've said repeatedly... it's good to have a gameplan... Great to have a system - even better if you have the talent to ram it down the other teams throat... but when you're playin elite teams you have to take what the defense gives - abuse them for it - and make them adjust... The whole concept of Moreyball I'm good with... but perhaps a little less rigid with a coach that can make the necessary adjustments as needed... inc midrange if thats whats open... and I believe there does have to be a 'human' component factored in (ie chemistry)... Not only guys getting along who are focused on the same goal... but also the ability for teammates to push one another and hold each other accountable... right now, I dont believe we have that... I think every player knows its Hardens team... He can yell at whoever he wants for whatever reason - but nobody can step at him if he's not doing his job...
It is awkward and we do need to open up the playbook. Ryan Anderson is a good shooter and not just a threepoint shooter, there is a reason he earned an $80M contract.
