Bought some cheap calls on CSV; some insider buying, price is down a lot with rest of the market, but getting in now in case there's a re-valuation when deaths inevitably go up. To be clear I don't think deaths from virus will be enough to a significantly impact earnings; but will be hopefully be enough to remind ppl that this isn't like other industries that go down with a pandemic.
Yeah, what was stated is what I'd expect too, small dent up and then further down after. Until there's solid news and time passes regarding the virus/jobs up/people spending it's still mainly going down.
I wouldn't buy purely based on news with short term impact; it tends to get priced in almost immediately leaving no more short term profit for you by the time u get in. That's different from buying based on an educated bet on future event/news or buying a good company at a (relative) discount to hold long term.
No, I'd be careful on that type of play, like for example if a stock falls 20% from today till Friday morning and then stimulus creates hype/new money/news - the stock might only go up 10% so it'd be dangerous as mentioned above. What was referred to on shorts are people w/ options/margins etc that are planning to short the market, stimulus news would wreck what was probably easier money assuming it was placed for a good price. Like you don't want to be holding positions where you know a stock is going down and then suddenly the stimulus ruins it.
Sadly people will wait for the boost from a stimulus and then dump. The govt needs a series of positive news in order to save the market.
Basically safest plays are long term buys and continue to avg down/buy more (if looking for a long term play) Dangerous stuff is chasing news like what we saw last week, but if you can actively watch it - there's definitely money to be made, it's just very dangerous chasing sometimes. Like if a huge volume sell comes in as a smaller stock is gaining it can literally stop/half/reverse the entire thing (ie you lost a ton rapidly). So huge manipulation of the market but big traders do it. So to explain a bit more if its a big stock like Apple for example, unless some crazy news surfaced (ie they don't have a ton of free cash on hand and need a bailout like the car companies etc etc), that would cause it to go way down but not in the same way a high volume trader can do to these penny/dollar stocks. So the first example is pure manipulation while the 2nd example is actually more how something would dip hard naturally. These examples are making it more simple - so no outside factors but just a quick thing to point out.
That's politics. More and more messaging is coming out of Washington that Pelosi had wish list grenades that she tossed into a deal that was reached between Dems and Republicans in good faith. If it really comes out that its true that carbon emissions, diversity requirements, etc. are in her wish list...which I don't know if they are true or not...but if true she's going to look really terrible. The threat of waiting until Friday may come to pass, but that's a threat to get them back to the table.
The biggest thing is speed. We saw it in the financial crisis, and we're seeing it now. If you can pass it quick enough, you can save more jobs...more jobs saved = less long term impact. Every week you wait is possibly hundreds of thousands if not millions of jobs until you get the "bridge" in place. The bridge gets you out 4-6 weeks. If its the only bridge you need...good. But its entirely possible you'd have to add on to the bridge. That's why the Pelosi move is really terrible. By going for perfection, and delaying even 1 week, that's upwards of a million more people not being able to bridge the gap. She basically is going for perfection over energy. In crisis, energy is better than perfection. In good times, perfection is better than energy. In New York right now, they are standing up thousands of hospital beds in case they need them. In two months, if we didn't need them...its no big deal...but if you needed them but didn't have them, its a huge deal. That's what the stimulus is. Its standing up thousands of hospital beds in case you need them. In the end, if a couple companies get more than they should have...its no big deal, but if millions of people don't get a bridge, its a huge deal. Right now, the market has a stimulus priced in...but its down today because of the wait. The longer it takes, the bigger the potential impact.
@CCity Zero Had small chunk in VXX - short-term volatility stuff. Granted, not 100% up to speed on how it works fully relative to market, but up through last thursday, seemed to be doing what i was used to... market down amid chaos, volatility up. But it's tanked since then. CCity, you know what are the dynamics here? Expectations for next few days - take losses (I was up big, now down.. only the little I had in VXZ is barely up still) or what? TVIX mentioned way earlier is way down. Traders just banking on the stimulus package? Personally, I don't see how it helps a ton... even though I know TVIX is long-term and of course any stimulus is better than none... just would have thought with the hold-up in the package it would have gone up slightly, not down. Just too much real traders switching from one product to the next? SVXY - granted short term - was up 8% today... EDIT: I know these aren't supposed to be buy and hold plays of course...
In on AYTU with an average of $1.84. This company is delivering 100,000 test kits this week with the expectation of tens of thousands a week afterwards. This could hit $2.50+ if the news is received well.
lol @ people thinking that stimulus bill will make a difference. Wait until Unemployment numbers come out this Thursday. Anyone whos not short is going to lose in the near term. If you have a long term strategy that's different but the market is going to go much lower then what it is today. There's going to be a lot of regional and local banks that will collapse from businesses defaulting on their loans.
You are either a day trader or a long term investor dealing with compound interest and value. If you try to be in the middle you will always be frustrated and a victim.
I’m out almost half of what I put into TVIX. Really hurting me. Any advice? Get rid of it and take the hit or do you guys think it will go up
So on VXX, really need to be careful on it since it's an ETN and not an ETF, like that's why I was suggesting to watch TVIX carefully last night/early morning like both fell (it's an etn too) There's a lot at play but if you look at its volume traded it like halted on both and I think some of it has to do with the uncertainty of outside factors (feds bonds /stimulus etc etc). Right now I would look at ETFs and it'll probably be a bit safer but ETNs are nice if things are going as expected but can really mess up faster I feel. Iirc last night there was a hope on futures going up and then the stimulus news you don't want anything like that because the volume will pull back and basically make the momentum swing the other way. Like today someone probably shorted this and made good money. Here's one link-- https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...focused-etn-but-with-a-downside-idUSKBN21A0EW This article details some of it and there's a few things you can look up on etn vs etf but here's an example - https://www.learningmarkets.com/etfs-or-etns-choose-exchange-traded-funds/ But I really recommend being careful and getting out over weekends or watching very closely even overnight, like on an etn, I'd probably treat it as a true daytrade. For example since all the trading was pulled back (and I think lower on the s&p overall on my last look there's not just uncertainty but concern where it will go) and I was watching TVIX and it was lowering premarket so tried to hint again on it. I'm probably making this pretty simple explanation but ETNs can be awesome when you call it and then get out, but I personally wouldn't recommend doing overnight right now or over weekends unless you're certain. Basically any good news/stimulus makes these stop/drop fast. Again there's more to it, but basically ETNs are where some of these bigger traders are making hedges or make a killing and get out. As for svxy it trades differently since you're buying into a fund (etf), like on etn since you're trading notes these can really fall out quickly. I'm sure others might be able to help detail this more, but with that said I'd probably try to leave even (if it's not too late), wait till stimulus/bonds any government news and then take a small gamble on the etn, I mean I think it will raise again. Again not financial advice, but if you do get in an etn set premark to sell out or if it's climbing a trailing stop loss (I mean unless we get some really good info that it's solid). Like on an etn, if you're not watching it, you must set marks/tsl, if you're wrong and you make 50% vs 100, don't worry there's more to be made. You could also follow below advice * like wait, but was it a lot and how close are you to even?
actual news regarding America hasn't come out regarding COVID or the economy. it come sin waves. stimulus talk and lack of these numbers has caused some short term gains and tvix to be dumped. will get pessimistic again by the weekend or next week, and you'll be able to gain back some of what you lost. it's only when real long term stability looks imminent, may... i would get out.
