[Ringer] 30 Facts that Will Make or Break the Harden-Westbrook Rockets

You're misrepresenting the article. It said shooters, plural, NOT shooter. Granted it didn't specify exactly how many they looked at.

It’s not true, as the common perception might suggest, that Westbrook will be playing with more capable targets for his passes in Houston than he did in Oklahoma City. Over the past three seasons, the most common non-Westbrook 3-point shooters for the Thunder succeeded on about 38 percent of their catch-and-shoot 3s—the same as the players now on Houston’s roster over the same period.

Take a quick look at the numbers regarding team shooting success. In 2018-19 season OKC hit 932 of 2677 threes (34.8%). But if you subtract Westbrook out of that (119 of 411, 29%), the rest of the team shot 813 of 2266 (35.9%). Last season Houston as a team shot 35.6%. I didn't bother to subtract CP3 out of that because he was essentially at the same percentage (35.8%) but it's possible HOU might drop a tick if you do the math on that.

That's close enough that I'm not going to claim OKC is better. But it's clearly very close - and the biggest reason OKC was worse overall as a team is Russ himself.

 

I agree. Westbrook has shown signs of slipping athleticism since 2017. Only question is whether that trend reverses. Seems unlikely to hope for that

 

This is all going to come down to whether Russ can learn to pass up a bad shot and help someone else get a better one instead.

Of course, that's been one of his big weaknesses historically. But if he can cut the bad shots in half, it should work because of everything else he brings to the table.

 

Bit of both, right?

What’s crazy is that even with them sagging off, he still hit a career high of 65% at the rim.

I think Russ' issues come down as much to shot selection as actual shooting skill.

As we all know, our philosophy is free throws, shots at the rim and 3s.

Shots at the rim: Westbrook is ELITE. 1.3 pps
Free throws: ELITE at generating them. We will see if his % can rebound. Even with the poor FT% last season, just by nature of the shot, it's worth 1.3 pps.
3s: It depends. Open 3s, corner 3s, and catch&shoot 3s are ok. He needs to eliminate 3s off the bounce and pull-ups, and as well as all mid-range shots.

I'm not going to act like its not a constraint. He's not a good shooter from distance. But I think we can work around it some.

Harden's shot selection (% made)
0-3 feet: 24% attempted (60% made)
3-10 feet: 17% attempted (47% made)
10-16 feet: 4% attempted (44% made)
16-3 pt ln: 2% attempted (34% made)
3pts: 54% attempted (37% made)

Westbrooks's shot selection (% made)
0-3 feet: 36% attempted (65% made)
3-10 feet: 9% attempted (21% made)
10-16 feet: 14% attempted (33% made)
16-3 pt ln: 13% attempted (36% made)
3pts: 28% attempted (29% made)

If I were going to transform Westbrooks shot chart, I'd move his attempts at the rim up to 50% of all of his shots through a combination of drives, fastbreaks, and slashing off ball with Harden as the PG.

I'd then cut his shots between 10 feet and the 3 pt line from it's current 27% of shots to 6% (similar to Hardens) and slightly increase his 3 attempts to 35%.

"NEW" Westbook:

0-3 feet: 50%
3 feet to 3 pt ln: 15% (currently 36%)
3 pointers: 35%

After looking at this, when Harden and Westbrook share the floor, I'd have Harden as the primary PG. That gives you Harden's ISO game, Westbooks slashing ability (on and off ball) and makes Westbrook the best shooter he can be (c&s, open and corners).

When Harden sits and Westbrook is the PG, we need to run and get as many shooters on the floor as possible. This would be a good time for small ball. Someone like Kevin Love would weaponize this unit.

 

If you do not understand the value & advantage, let alone the difference, in how much space Rockets create then further discussion is warrantless.

 

@biff17

This is for you


This is a game against NO in February of this year. The spacing for the Thunder is bad to be sure. The reason it is bad in each clip is because the Pelicans basically don't guard Westbrook and collapse on anyone in the paint or guard the other shooters. When there is a screen they go under the screen and dare Westbrook to shoot.

In this particular set of clips he actually drilled two of the shots where they left him open, but that's rare by percentages. You can go through that entire game on youtube and you'll see the same thing everytime.

If he walks the ball up they sag off of him to guard the drive. If he doesn't have the ball they ignore him other than trying to guard against a cut to the basket. If someone sets a screen for him the Pelicans go under it to prevent the roll and just dare him to shoot.

They don't abandon the shooters to defend Russ, they abandon Russ to defend to everyone else.

When he drives it's different. They collapse on him because he's good at that and he's great at passing out to his shooters and they are good at making the shots. The Thunder offense worked very well when this is what happened. When he drives and kicks the Thunder's offense is rated highly. In any other scenario they struggle.

 

Slippery Morey dumped Paul for two swaps and two protected picks and got Westbrick in return. Relax. If it doesn't work out, and it probably won't, Morey will trade him at the deadline, and you can take it to the bank that plenty of teams will be interested. Even if all Westbrick offers is empty stats, there are star hungry teams who won't let that stop them from kicking the tires on a deal with Houston.

 

Actually in a way we did just drop Chris Paul into our "system" if you can call it a system. The difference between Paul and Westbrook is that Paul is smarter. He understands that the offense is Harden-centric. He just needs to pick his spot using his skill set. And he had always been a good 3pt shooter even though he didn't take a lot of them before he joined the Rockets.

I am not sure if Westbrook has that sense. And Westbrook is a career 31% 3pt shooter. Compare that to Chris Paul's 37%. I hope MDA can design something that will work for Westbrook because you can't just drop him in what we are doing and expect him to figure out a way to fit like CP3 did. And Harden needs to change too to make it work. I hope he is motivated to so.

 

Too bad we did not trade for Jerami Grant too. Nuggets got him for a song.

 

Yeah that was a steal for sure.

 

I hope Harden will change/adapt to playing with Westbrook because if he doesn't then I'm ready to move on from both and rebuild the team from the ground up.

 

So either Harden changes to play around a worse player that has already run out two other prime superstars or you want to trade him lol.

 

You have to either way, even if they go to the Finals.....or win it. You gotta have to plan out Harden's prime and decline. And how to handle things afterwards.

How to get rid of WB's contract.

I also want a clean fresh start after the next 2 years.

 

It will certainly be a change but if he is willing, it isn't a difficult one to make. Simply shoot from the paint or set three pointers. Carmelo Anthony was not willing to do, but I do not think Westbrook is as stupid as Anthony.

 

i was thinking the exact same thoughts this very morning!

another thing,
we were only few points away from taking down the warriors eventhough cp3 shot 27% from 3 in the playoffs

 

lol it does seem like that doesn't it? I love Harden. I think it's been underappreciated by a lot of people on here. I'm not holding it against him for Dwight Howard not working out nor am I holding against him for Chris Paul getting traded. That being said, this trade was Harden's decision and he's smart enough to know that changes will need to be made in order for this relationship to work. The role players around them will play their role but in order for the team to succeed Harden, Russ and MDA will have to find a system/way/plan to make it work. I'm really hopeful that they will but if Harden thinks it's as easy as just let Russ be Russ or Harden be Harden....that just tells me that Harden will never change his mentality and I don't think said mentality will get us where we want to be.

 

In fairness I don't think Westbrook ran out George or Harden. He arguably ran out Durant.... but with Durant leaving the Warriors, I wonder if he is just a rolling stone.

It is like saying Harden doesn't work well with other stars. Dwight Howard is a notoriously non competitive player and has worn out his welcome at every stop and Chris Paul was 34 years old and physically could not do what he once did. The Rockets can attract stars, but they are stars with warts. That is part of why I think the Rockets never bottoming out under Les Alexander was very silly. We never were in a position to draft elite players.

 

Missed the point. No one talks about their shooters being bad. Its about floor spacing. Westbrook always had a center and then another poor shooter in the game as well . Clogged the lane more than it needed to be.

 

And that likely continues in 2024 and 2026 when they convey those picks to OKC.