Now that the trade deadline has passed, we can start looking at the long-term rebuilding plan here. I've always said that rebuilding doesn't have to be a long process if a team would just fully commit to it. I think a team can be back on the upswing in 2 years, and really competitive in 3. Ideally, you get your stars cheap through the draft and fill out the team with middle-tier free agents. As of now, it doesn't appear we have a lot of "star power" in the minors, but we do seem to have a lot of potential middle tier pieces of a functional team. And it looks like we'll have a LOT of payroll flexibility with Oswalt/Lee/Berkman all off the books by then. So let's look at what the team looks like going forward. I'm ignoring 2011 because I believe it's going to be similar to this year and the 2nd year of the ugly rebuilding process. But looking out to 2012, here are the pieces that look to be in place, with made up salaries noted where they probably be will be above $1MM. I'm not too familiar with our minor leagues, so I have no idea who could fill some of these holes. C: Castro 1B: Wallace 2B: ?? 3B: Johnson SS: ?? LF: ?? CF: Bourn - $2MM RF: Pence - $4MM 5 random bench players SP: Myers - $8MM SP: Happ - $2MM SP: Lyles (would he be MLB ready by 2012?) SP/SP: Some combo of Paulino, Wright, Norris, random cheap Free Agent RP: Lyon - $5MM RP: Lindstrom - $3MM RP: Melancon 4 more RP's That totals $24MM in listed salary for 6 players. Another 7 positions held by very cheap players - let's estimate that at $5MM. Lets invest $15MM in 5 bench + 4 RPs. That puts us at $44MM for 22 players. Now, this isn't a very good team - but it's also not meant to be. It's the beginning of the rebuilding, and what it does is fill a lot of holes with hopefully reasonable players cheaply. Some of these players won't pan out, but hopefully that's balanced by pieces I've missed through my lack of knowledge of our minors, or that might be acquired by trades next year of Wandy or Lee or anyone else that we might be able to move. The beauty of this set up is that, if we assume a $100MM payroll, it leaves $56MM in flexibility for 3 players + replacements for whatever players don't pan out above. The team listed has no real stars, but it has decent players throughout the team. The Astros could sign five $10MM free agents, or three $17MM superstars if they really wanted to fill any remaining gaps, and still have a few million leftover. To be clear, I'm NOT advocating that (you need to see what the team looks like in 2012 for those kinds of decisions) - but it shows you how the team could potentially get back to being decent to good by 2012. It also shows how valuable payroll flexibility is (and why signings like Lyon are so annoying).
I agree with the signing of 5 above average players for 10MM. What I don't want is 3 for 17MM, that's exactly how we got into this current debacle. But yes thankfully unlike the Pirates or other sub-par teams we can actually maintain a 100 Million dollar plus payroll. Thus not having to soley rely on the Draft.
No, it isn't. The current debacle is a consequence of past draft debacles. The FA signings of guys like Matsui or Feliz pales in comparison to the ****tastic player development of the last decade.
I hope they follow the pattern set in the early 90s, start slow with prospects only and cheap veterans for at least two years then by the 3rd year use Uncle D's money to get a Drabek and Swindell. C - Castro 1b - Wallace 2b - Jose Altuve SS - Mier or Villar 3b - Johnson Rf - Pence Cf - Bourn or TJ Steele Lf - JD Martinez Myers Paulino Happ Lyles FAgent Lindstrom Melancon I am sure Uncle D won't resist the urge to spend on a FAgent but just impossible to tell. I would love for them to go after Carl Crawford but I think he will be a FAgent this season so I wouldn't think he is an option thus probably a starting pitcher like I mentioned above.
Agreed. Those signings were to mask the utter lack of player development that has been present since the end of the Hunsicker era to the beginning of the Wade era. At least things are changing with Heck at the helm and Drayton opening the wallet for the draft. Something tells me we won't see a $100 million payroll until the team proves it can win somewhat without the help of truly expensive free agents... which requires some of the homegrown and young guys to either make it big, or be somewhat consistent (ie - Pence, Bourne). As far as your ??? go, ideally, Jio Mier starts to turn it around sometime next year and gets consideration in 2012 at SS. Altuve is a possibility for 2B. And JD Martinez gets a shot by then to either sink or swim at LF. That's presuming you want all home-grown cheap players filling those roles.
If he had signed right away like Foltzy and Mike K. then maybe, longshot, but at this point 2014 is a more realistic target date.
Even if he signed first... the kid is 17 years old right now. Who are the 19 year olds that make the majors over the last 20 years? A-rod? Who else? I'm curious to see that list. Something tells me its filled with either future HOFers or nobodies.
Oh I agree, that's why I called it a longshot at best if he had signed. The only way I would have seen it was if he destroyed the minors like Heyward but yea didn't see it happening.
He has the type of stuff that may allow him to pitch into his mid-30s without losing effectiveness but that doesn't mean he'll be able to do so. He had 1.5 seasons of very good pitching coming into this season as a 30-year-old. For the last month and half, he's looking like that guy again. I think the answer to your question depends on several things. Among those are the following: -how well some our prospects develop -how well Myers performs and if he's still around -how well Wandy himself performs -the state of the team at that point I had guessed that we wouldn't trade Oswalt, Myers and Wandy even if there were good offers for all 3 of them. Even in rebuilding years, you need an anchor or two in your rotation, which they'll be looking to get from Myers and Wandy. If enough young arms prove themselves and Wandy pitches well, maybe he gets traded at one of the next 2 deadlines. Same for Myers. There are all kinds of possibilities but I think these are all factors to consider.
I do wonder what we could've gotten for Myers. If it was even one solid prospect, it may have been a perfect "sell high" situation and we could've looked elsewhere to fill his spot in the rotation for next season and beyond. I guess Wade and his staff saw it differently. Hopefully Myers continues to pitch well but it's hard to see him maintaining this kind of pace, which is why I thought he was in optimal sell high mode. If he does continue to perform well, he could actually end up a Type A by next season as he's already jumped from nowhere near a Type B at the beginning of the season to a solid Type B. I don't know how those ratings are used exactly in trades vs free agency, etc... somebody else here can probably shed light on that. Either way, we held on to Myers so we just have to hope he pitches well, both to anchor our rotation and to improve his tradability should we eventually go that route.
Lee's under contract for 2011 and 12 so you know. 19 million each year. 2012 Astros right now look pretty much the same as this years team C Jason Castro 1B Brett Wallace 2B Jeff Keppinger (has played really well, contract year) SS Angel Sanchez (doing a pretty solid job so far, could be Mier here) 3B Chris Johnson LF Carlos Lee (contract year) CF Michael Bourn (contract year) RF Hunter Pence (arb3 of 4) 2013 is where it will get very interesting we currently have nothing on the books aside from rookie scale contracts and arb money. And Pence will be in his contract season.
C Jason Castro 1B Brett Wallace 2B ? SS ? 3B Chris Johnson LF ? CF Michael Bourn RF Hunter Pence SP Brett Myers SP J.A. Happ SP Jordan Lyles SP SP 2B- If Keppinger continues to play well the Astros will probably trade him, he's 30 and not likely to get much better. Albert Cartwright and Jose Altuve appear to be good prospects ahead of DeShields. SS- Take Your pick, any of a million players, too early to tell Angel Sanchez, Tommy Manzella, Edwin Maysonet, Jiovanni Mier, Jonathan Villar, Adam Everett, Roger Metzger, Tim Bogar, Craig Reynolds, whoever it is won't hit a lick. LF- Hail or highwater, Carlos Lee will be gone by then, even if we have to flat out release him. J.D. Martinez has tore up the low minors, if that translate to high minors it's obviously his job to lose. SP - Like Keppinger, if Wandy pitches well he'll be gone, 31 not getting a lot better. Another position too early to tell, Paulino and Bud Norris have shown promising signs, but nothing concrete yet, Dallas Keuchel, Foltzy, or cheap free agent are all possibilities.
