Seeing as how there are honestly a ton of very smart basketball thinkers on this board, I wanted to see what the various gurus here think about this: Let's assume the roster stays the way it is now, and that we do not manage to pick up another major contributor. Figure our starters as whoever you think will start - your call. Then place yourself in the position of the opposing coach. And since this really ought to be more about X's & O's instead of trying to match a specific other TEAM against ours (so don't just say 'OK, I coach San Antonio, we we beat Houston because we are just better), just assume you have a reasonably talented roster filled with some fairly talented players. How do you beat these Rockets? But more importantly, why will you fail, despite your best efforts? Anyway, while I am certainly no coaching expert, I will start off, as an example. But I am really more interested in what strategies you guys would try to develop. First task: Identify the weaknesses, so I can exploit them. It appears that, as solid as Sura is, with him as the starting PG, he is the weakest link, and therefore is the starting point for the attack. I send my best on-the-ball defensive guard out to meet Sura at half-court. I try to get a few steals at the start of the game, and a few breakaway dunks, and maybe a nice quick 10 point lead, before JVG adjusts and takes the ball out of Sura's hands to start the offense. Offensively, same thing. If I have a 1 or a 2 who can penetrate and dish, he is my main focus to start off the offense. If I can go straight at Yao, and maybe avoid Swift, perhaps I can get Yao in early foul trouble, as has been his habit. The sooner I can get Yao out, the sooner Swift is also likely to hit the pine, as JVG will want to bring in Howard along with Deke. This will be the signal to swicth from penetrate-and-dish to start some P&R's or just swing the ball around the perimeter for what should be some open jump shots, especially if I have a 5 who can hit a 12-footer. I still have problems though. How do I stop McGrady? I pretty much decide that I already know I can't. I will try to double him on the perimeter, try to take the ball out of his hands on offense, and do what I can to try to make him work as hard as he can on defense. But he's still TMac, and I know going in that he is likely to go off for 35 no matter what I throw at him, he's that good. Also, the chances of me getting Yao in early foul trouble went way down when the Rockets added Stro. It's just as likely that, between Swift, Yao, and Mutombo, the inside is just going to be shut down as tight as a vault. In addition, when we get the ball out of Sura's hands, it goes INTO TMac's, which is probably not going to help my cause very much. My only real hope is that he is just off, that he stops himself. Because if he starts lighting it up, I will be forced to double him, and when he starts his P&R with Yao, I have to devote another weakside defender to try and help stop it. Suddenly I am seeing wide-open shots for Wesley and Sura, as well as Stro jumping in from the opposite side to slam in any missed, because his man had to leave him in order to try to help stop TMac and Yao. A lot of things would have to break my way in order to beat the Rockets, I think. My jump shooters have to have a better-than-average game, we have to get Yao and/or TMac in foul trouble as early as possible, and we have to hope that Houston has an off night shooting. All in all, that boils down to the 'crossing my fingers' strategy, because I don't know that just a good game plan by itself will ever be able to beat those guys, if they are playing anywhere up to the level at which they should be performing. In short, I think we probably manage to keep it close for 3 quarters, but in the 4th, Barry, James, and TMac all start draining from range, and turn it into laugher, and win the game by around 20. The Rockets are going to be a very good team this year, barring any catastrophes. The will lose their share of games just because they have teh bad game here and there, figure maybe 10 games they lose that they really should have won. Maybe another six or so where the opposing team just goes insane, and could have beaten anyone on that given night. Maybe another 10 or so against teams you could legitimately say are better than the Rockets over the course of the season, such as SA and maybe Miami.. lose a few against Phoenix and/or Dallas.. it should be a mid-50-win season. I just don't think my team will be among those 25 or so games the Rockets will lose, UNLESS I happen to have a clearly superior team (unlikely), or the Rockets pretty much beat themselves (also unlikely), or if my guys just play a superb game (best bet, but still unlikely). Anyhow, I just thought it would be interesting, in these dog days of summer, to try to come up with some likely strategies we may see from the opposition this year, in order to perhaps more accurately predict how the games may sometimes play out. How would you stop these Rockets?
off the top of my head - you play them the way the Pistons played LA - you let Tmac and Yao score all night and you play the rest of the guys on the floor staight up. On Defense, you pull Yao and Swift out of the lane and post up the shooting guards.
I would just force Stro to shoot the jumper. If he is consistent on that shot, then I would probably put in some thugs and try to injure Tmac. About getting Yao into foul trouble: you gotta assume that the refs are gonna stop picking on him at some point. It's been a solid 3 years, and now that we are among the elite teams, I think Yao will get fewer bogus fouls called on him. Stro will also absorb some of the fouls simply by trying to block half the shots that Yao has had to challenge in the past.
thats basically what the mavs did against us in game 7 too. until we get a 3rd "go-to-guy" that will be the way to stop us. stro helped us get bigger and much more defensive, but we still need our guards to get upgraded. one of them needs to be able to score one-on-one. i know me have james, but he doesn't pass the ball. if our 3rd scorer will be a PG he still has to be able to pass and run an offense. james can't do that. that's why i think it is more important that we upgrade the SG spot first.
Crowd the lane and force the outside high percentage shot. On offense, I really need some outside shooters, because I'm not going in there except to draw fouls on Ming. The Rockets should field a pretty formitable interior defense. This is relatively simplistic, which is why I'm not an NBA coach.
1-Front Yao with a 4 2-Play a 2 on McGrady forcing him to shoot rather than go to the hole and disrupt your D 3-Play your 5 off of Swift forcing him to shoot from the outside 4-Double off of Sura 5-Do 1 through 4 but most importantly be physical
since yao is a good passer from the post, i would play him single but very physicallly... see how much you can get away with and hopefully the rockets get into a rut where yao disappears from teh offense and doesn't get consistent touches... i would try to keep the ball out of tmac's hands until late in the shot clock ... force him to the baselines for toucher kickouts... with mainly shooters left, get their feet tired for a bad shooting performance later in the game... keep swift from the offensive boards as he may not have many offensive plays called for him otherwise, so you have a chance to get him out of the game mentally
I think every coach in the league is going to attempt exactly what Dallas did: Drive on our guards early, often and late. Yao and Stro are both foul-prone, but especially in the playoffs you have the added advantage of wearing down our aged backcourt and add even a greater burden on T-Mac and Yao. On defense you try to make sure Yao doesn't get good position, but I make sure that Yao gets hit early, and in the 4th quarter mugged until the refs. force me to stop. T-Mac you double always and attempt to clog the lane and force him to shoot jumpers and hope Stro/JHo miss the little kickouts when T-Mac does penetrate. I agree you have to let the Rox perimeter guys beat you and just hope they don't 4 times in the playoffs.
It's hard to do this without knowing what team I'm coaching. If I'm the Spurs, I send Parker and Ginobilli to the basket relentlessly and let Duncan be Duncan. If I'm Dallas, I stay on the outside a lot and let Terry abuse Sura and Stackhouse abuse Wesley. If I'm Detroit, I let Billups abuse whoever the Rox put on him, have Rip Hamilton run Wesley/Barry ragged, hope Tayshaun is hitting his outside shot, etc. If I'm the Heat, Dwayne Wade would have a feast day scoring on any of our guards and setting up Shaq, AW, Haslem or whoever. On offense, attacking the Rox depends on what my players can do. Besides the Spurs and a couple of other teams, it should be difficult to score on the Rockets inside, especially if Yao learns to avoid dumb fouls. Defending the Rox is more straightforward. Denying Yao the ball in scoring position is the #1 priority. The amount of energy and effort this takes depends on Yao's effort level that game. #2 is try to make T-Mac shoot long jumpers because you cannot allow him to penetrate. This means a double team either right away or as soon as the ball touches the floor. (You cannot keep the ball out of T-Mac's hands). The point of #1 & #2 is to force the others to make plays. I don't buy the strategy of letting Yao & T-Mac get theirs. Teams must make them use as much energy as possible. One of these days, Rick Adelman is going to figure out that even on Yao's worst days, he still needs a double team.
How to beat the Rockets? 1. Get a hollywood-quality acting class. 2. Complain a lot to the refs. 3. Call Stenr and offer him an ice cream. He loves DairyQueen. On court, give them a lot of 3pointer opportunities in the first 2 qtrs. When they start hitting em, they'll play loose and become complacent. This is the best time to attack as they go freeze like an iceberg.
Your strategy won't work. I have never seen Yao single-covered and not have a good game. Yao's bad games are always when he's fronted by two or three players before or right after he gets the ball.
you're right; i think getting yao in foul trouble is a far better tactic ... yao has shown , when he doesn't get into foul trouble, he can take it to anyone on single coverage
My Defense on the Rockets: 1. Let Tmac control the offense. Play one on one defense and make him be the one that beats you. 2. Don't let the rest of the team get involved early. Once Tmac believes that he and Yao are the only options, start doubling them. 3. When Tmac is out play completely different on defense so that he cannot see (from an outsiders perspective) what defense is being played on him. 4. Adjust at halftime.
I would just give up and start preparing my team for the next game which we actually has a chance to win.
I think these below are excellent game plans against our offense. Defending the Rox should not be straightforward if Yao makes gradual improvements along with our other additions. By no means will stopping the Rockets be easy. It will be very interesting to see how efficient Stro is with the jumper, and if he isn't efficient with the J can he be efficient off the ball other ways without clogging up other things we want to do. I don't think you want the Rockets guards getting open 3s. The best defenses (Pistons/Spurs) just don't let role players get consistent looks. I'd say try to get Swift to take a lot of jumpers and make Tmac feel the burden of carry the offense and settle for lots of jumpers himself. Those are better options than good looks by Yao or Tmac going to the hole or wide open 3s --all things a really try to protected against in that order. Against the Spurs the best thing if for Parker to try to take a lot of shots. The more the ball is out of TD and Manu the better. I think Tmac and Manu/Parker will pretty much cancel each other out, whomever better takes advantage of their big guys (TD or Yao), should have an edge. Dallas is going to get killed by the new Rockets. They had enough trouble with a Rocket team with CBA quality 4s and worn out old guard having to cover the PG, SG and SF spots. A few hot spots by Terry or Stack is not going to save them. I think we can beat Detroit the way SA and Miami pre-Wade injury did. Defensively we should make it very hard for them to score, and the 1-2 punch of Tmac and Yao should score enough. Yao, next to Shaq, is the worst guy for Ben W to face. Ben W should have likely had to play Shaq or Yao for 12-13-14 games in a row, it would be brutal for him. Miami is just brutal to handle offensively if they are healthy, the most difficult team in the league to stop. Yao would have to hold his own versus Shaq and Tmac would just have to go off, not only offensively, but would be the guy to get Wade out of his game at times. In the end it would probably come down to the effectiveness of Swift, Sura, James, Wesley, Barry, (other player?) versus Walker, Williams, Posey, Haslem, (other player). I'd love to see it.
I would write david stern a huge check, so large that I wouldn't have any money to sign anyone the following season. Then I would cheat my ass off.
