Hi all. Yet another Chinese Rockets fan in Beijing here. Since it's highly likely Yao Ming is going to be a Rocket barring major political hurdles, which I think is next to none. I am sure a lot of folks here are interested in Yao Ming's first year performance in the NBA. Some people is still not sold on Yao's prowess of possibly being the next real thing, suggesting trades for pothead Lamar Odom and Micheal "no show" Olokowandi. Can't blame them too much for that, as they think that the CBA is just a bunch of midgets running around with Yao standing tall in the middle, which is nothing but imagination. It's hard to tell the level of competition of CBA without comparison.So I will try to make a fair judgement on Yao based on the NBA competition. How is it to be done if Yao has never played in the NBA before? Well, sure he didn't, but his fellow countrymen Wang Zhi Zhi and Mengke Bateer, both the CBA superstars, are NBA players already. Let's just see how Mengke Bateer's performance changes before and after entering the NBA, then apply that change to Yao's stats. The reason Mengke Bateer is chosen instead of the more well known Wang Zhi Zhi is because Bateer, similarly to Yao, has physical advantage in terms of power over Wang Zhi Zhi against NBA players, that means he is physically better suited for the NBA than Wang, just like Yao Ming in terms of height. At 6-11 and 290 lbs, Bateer is possibly the top three power player in the NBA. Although the big fellow is just a rookie, teams are already paying respect to him as he can back down many opponents, use his footwork to get a layup, and therefore commending double teams. He did exactly that in a game against the Timberwolves.If he is not down low, he can also fire up jumpers in or beyond the arc decently. The only thing that keeps him from getting major minutes is his inexperience and foul troubles. I did a little digging in the official CBA website and NBA.com, here is what I came up with. Mengke Bateer 6-11 290lbs In CBA 2001-2002 Round 1 - Round 22 40 MPG 20.95PPG (55.4% 2 point FG%) (34.6% 3 point FG%) 12.22RPG Per Minute Production in CBA 0.52 points 0.3 Rebounds In NBA 2002 27 Games 15 MPG 5.1PPG (40.2% FG%) (33.3% 3 point FG%) 3.6 RPG 78% FT Per Minute Production in NBA 0.34 Points 0.24 Rebounds Production Dropoff Percentage of Bateer from CBA to NBA Points (0.52-0.34)/0.52 = -34% Rebounds (0.3-0.24)/0.3 = -20% FG% - Can someone knows how the NBA calculate FG% help out here? Yao Ming 7-5 300lbs In CBA 2001-2002 Round 1 - Round 26 38 MPG 27.42 MPG (72% 2 point FG%) (40% 3 point FG%) 77% FT 17 RPG 4.5 Blocks Per Minute Production in CBA 0.72 Points 0.447 Rebounds Projected Production Per Minute of Yao Ming In NBA 0.72 - 0.72 * 34% = 0.475 point per minute 0.447 - 0.447 * 20% = 0.357 rebound per minute FG% ??? Keep in mind the above stats of Bateer are based on only 27 games in the NBA, the stats will get better had he played longer. At 30 minutes per game, that is about 14.25 points at over 50%(a rough guess here) FG% and 10.71 rebounds from the Big Yao. Yao is already better than Mengke Bateer right now, he will also only get better with better training and conditioning. Bateer is already 27 years old and Yao is supposed to learn and adjust to the NBA fsater than Bateer. The above estimation is therefore an conservative one. I won't be surprised to see Yao gets more than that. If that beanpole Pau Gazol can get 17 and 9 in the first year, there is no way Yao couldn't do the same. Let's just hope everything goes well so the Rockets can snatch an all star center in Yao Ming and make the playoffs next year.
I think the way that yao is used to playing the game will change. However, if he can score 10ppg and take down 8rpg I would be happy. Reason being, other teams will have to do something to stop him. Let's say Ming isn't able to post or muscle, but can shoot from 15-20 feet well. That will make defenses adjust to what we are doing. I like Ming, I'm afraid of what the chinese will want to do about Ming long term and other factors. Will they want him to move to New York, will they make him play world competition apart from the Rockets organization, will his size come with medical problems, will he have an injury plagued career? I don't for a second question what type of player he can and probably will be. It's the other factors which are so variable. Economics shows us cost/benefit analysis, externalities and oppurtunity costs which can easily be applied to the Rockets current position. Let's just hope that the powers that be, heavily research.
panda, excellent post and wlelcome to the board. Very interesting analysys and excellent English. Do you live in the US? At this point many of us are sold on Yao as a draft choice from a basketball point of view. What is your analysis of the current position of the Chinese government/ CBA/ Sharks etc. regarding guarantees and our Chinese trip? Also, are the Rockets negotiating this contract and affair in a culturally attuned manner, according to accepted Chinese business methods? What is going on?
At 6-11 and 290 lbs, Bateer is possibly the top three power player in the NBA. [/B] HUH? Great post but that is far from an accurate observation. Anyhow, hope you're right with your projection (of course only if Ming ends up in H-town, otherwise I hope he's a mope) but we all know mathematical projections are rarely accurate in sports.
Good Post Panda, IF Wang Zhi Zhi is trying to defect, how will this hurt the Rockets chances of landing Ming? DaDakota
Welcome Panda, What area of Beijing do you live? I have a question, actually it's more of feeling that I would like to get your feedback on. My sense is that this GM for the sharks cares nothing about Ming but he does care about the money that Yao can bring him. And after visits with officials from Chicago and New York, he believes Chicago and New York are places where Ming could make more money, with shoe contracts, commercials, fame, etc.. Because of this feeling he wants Ming to play in one of those cities and not Houston. This is why the man makes statements that he has not visited by Houston and that Chicago's History of Championships make chicago and idea place for Ming to play. However I think the man is losing control and this is why he is screaming so loud. I believe that the people of China and the government of China want Ming to play in the NBA. They feel this is the way for him to improve upon his success and represent their country. What I also know (or what has been reported) is that Ming's cousin is very impressed and happy with Houston and he has conveyed this imformation to Ming. I feel this gentleman has Yao's best interests in mind and that Ming trust him. So now Ming is content to move to Houston and his family (after listening to Ming's cousin) is also, but this greedy GM for the Shanghai Sharks is not. Thus he is vocalizing stupid statements in hopes of dissuading Houston from visiting China. A trip that could do nothing but move Houston closer to drafting Ming. The man man is threatened by Houston's visit. He sees dollar signs slipping. So he is screaming out, Stay away Houston stay away. (if he really had as much control of Yao's future would he have to make such statements. I think not.) And this is exactly why I feel Houston should go to China now. They should make the trip and clear up any confusion about they're intentions. Do you agree or disagree with my opinion and why?
You wrote a well-thought out post, but sorry, Yao is NOT going to be an all-star. Bateer is pretty much horrible. He averaged 21 points and 12 rebounds? This guy who's name is Cabrero I think was one of the top scorers in the CBA and he couldn't even make a NBA team. I'm not saying Ming is going to suck, but Yao isn't going to make as much of an immediate impact as you think
He will be an all-star no matter what team he is in, All-star is chosen based on fans vote, and I believe that Ming might get a higher vote than Shaq thanks to the 11 billion population China have
Oh, well in that case, I think there's no question, we draft Ming!! I mean, who doesn't want an all star player, that isn't an all star CALIBER player?
If he gets 11 billion votes something is seriously wrong ... Btw I have a Ming question to those who have seen him play ... I don't doubt Mings offensive potential but do you expect him to be a good rebounder? ... The recent games against New Zealand suggest that China was seriously lacking on the boards ... many people just say that he is 7'6 and thus he will be a dominant rebounder but many tall players are awful rebounders ... any thoughts on this?
I'm all for optimism but the exaggerations here are growing by leaps and bounds. It's extremely doubtful Yao Ming will be an all-star as a rookie in the NBA. It's certain that there aren't 11 billion people in China to vote him in.
you willing to bet on the all-star assertion???? what's the exchange rate?? there have been a ton of very good players who have not made the all-star game in their first season. barring the aforementioned scenario where the Chinese people cram the internet lines to "stuff the ballot box" for Ming, thus earning him a starting position over Shaquille O'Neal, Ming will NOT be an all-star in his first season, no matter who he plays for. it seems he has a lot to adapt to.
Unlikely a first year all-star especially now that his stock is slightly starting to drop with the political turmoil. If he slips to GS, Denver Memphis he might not even make the trip over. If he does he will struggle no matter who he plays for- new offense, language, and stronger competition. I wish we could get a good look at his game - thats got to be frustrating for the Rockets to basically have to beg to see their #1 pick play- or at the very least be allowed to talk with him on the phone...
Ya Yao will be an all start next year if he plays in another league than the NBA just wait the big guys will kill Yao
Since there is time difference, I was sleeping while you guys are posting, thus the delay in reply. I will try to answer to questions without individual correspondance. On the current position of the Chinese government/ CBA/ Sharks etc. First of all, let me clarify who exactly the Rockets will be dealing with. The department in charge of the athletic affairs in China is the Sports Bureau of China (SBC). In this case, it might conduct its policies through its branch, the local sports bureau in Shanghai. The other two entities in picture are, of course, CBA and the Shanghai Sharks. The SBC, CBA and Shanghai Sharks all have common goals, they want to promote the popularity of basketball in China and make profit in order to attract or develope talent, by increasing the level of competition of CBA. In their view, sending sports figures abroad not only attract more fans, but also make teenagers realize that the CBA is a bridge towards the NBA, more basketball players mean more stars. Furthermore, they hope players like Wang and Yao learn the NBA stuff in terms of training, coaching etc. and bring it back to China, except the drug and women part They managed sending players abroad, now they want the players become NBA stars to further achieve the above goals. Respectively, the SBC's primary objective is to win major basketball tournaments so that it can claim the credit that they did a good job promoting basketball and justifying the decision by sending players abroad. Whether this objective collides with the Rockets requirements depends on the exact schedules of major tournaments in the coming years. To my understanding, there is no significant conflicts between the NBA schedule and the major tournaments in the world. Of course, the definition of "major" is something to be sorted out on the negotiation table. As for CBA and Shanghai Sharks, all they care about is monetary rewards and even better, some talent in return to maitaining their competitive edge after losing Yao. The main issue is the conflict of interest between SBC and the Rockets. The whole picture is clouded right now as there is no clear indication of what kind of obligation Yao has with the Sports Bereau of China, Yao is a citizen of China, its up to him to play for whatever and whoever he wants to. The SBC has no right to order him around, throw him in jail or fine him as they wish, just because he plays basketball. It works to the Rockets advantage if Yao has no written agreement with SBC. In that way, if the SBC wants to call Yao back to play for the national team, the only legal way is to do so by telling CBA and Sharks to call Yao back, since they are the ones having a contract with Yao. If that is the case, even without any guarentee, the Rockets only need to worry about temporarily losing Yao for the duration of the contract between Yao and CBA/Sharks, for how long exactly I do not know. On the other hand, since Yao might has received help from SBC during his training in the early years, there might be sort of agreement between them regarding Yao's service. The other variable is how important it is for Yao to be the No.1 pick overall, it certainly helps him to become a star, and that's one of SBC's objective. However, it should not be as important as getting Yao back and win some international championships, as being the No.1 pick is not instrumental to Yao's success. Still, this factor depends on the contractual situation between Yao and SBC, which decides how much leverage SBC has during negotiation. Which team does Yao play for also has bearing on his marketing potential and star power, again, it's not instrumental to his success as a player. As of now, it's too early to tell what exactly will happen as key pieces are missing. Hopefully the above analysis helps clear up the confusion a little bit. On the Yao Ming side I do not follow CBA closely, I am an NBA and Rockets fan. From a few CBA games I saw, Yao Ming's rebounding certainly is not a problem, but an area that can still be improved with better positioning and blocking out, right now he relies on his size to get a few easy boards. One thing is that he is quite good at grabbing offensive boards and putbacks, he is able to score on offensive boards by layups or hook shots, right hand as well as left hand. He rebounds well and can get better with more upper body strength. On Shanghai Sharks As for coming to the USA, the tidbits I gathered from the press is that winning the CBA championship is a condition for Yao to be released by the Sharks. Yao did that. Also, Yao is confident and expressed the desire to be the No.1 overall pick. That means Yao will be pissed off if the Sharks are too greedy as to ruining his chance of being the No.1 pick, something the Sharks don't want to see as Yao's got many fans. So it is certain that the Sharks have to release Yao Ming, it appears they don't have many cards to play with. Making Yao Ming the No.1 pick and plays for a team like Bulls might be what they want. Or a crook like Krause giving them an under the table deal is also possible. The Sharks owner and GM might try to make Houston select Yao as the No.1 pick and then trade him to somewhere else like New York or Chicago by vocalizing their stupid concerns and playing hard to get, but how can they make too big a ripple? On Wang Zhi Zhi Wang is a member of the Chinese Army, he cannot be a foregin citizen while serving in the army. He'll prolly end up in the martial court if he refuses to comply with orders of going back. The story of Wang's defecting is probably not true. Defecting should be taken into consideration by the officials before they release players to go abroad. Even it's indeed an issue it can be worked out by Yao's guarantee of not defecting. I am not worrying about Yao going to the NBA if Wang really wants to defect. Glynch and Old Man Rock: I studied in the US before, I am actually a Hongkongese living in Beijing right now. I live near the Ya Yun Chun in Chao Yang district. Any idea of where it is? I still think that with Yao's game, millions of Chinese fans support, and David Stern being really into going international. Yao Ming can make the all star game in the first year, maybe as the backup of Shaq. Considering that Antonio Davis made the all star game at 14 and 10, and Yao is going to attract attention of the world, especially fans from China and 30 million Chinese living abroad. The possibility is there, but I won't bet on it, since gambling is illegal in China, even through the internet. Sorry for the long post, guess I just have too much time on hand.
Props to Panda for a great post! Don't worry about the length of the post, it was all good reading. I hope the Rocks don't blow this one and trade the pick. Would be great to get Yao. It truly is in the best interest of the Sharks and the CBA for Yao to be the #1 and play for the full season + playoffs in the NBA. It seems illogical for them to gum this up, but who knows.
The Rockets have said they have been scouting Ming for 4 years. Since he was 17. After 4 years I htink they would know if he wasn't worthy of the #1 pick. Also Ming speaks english good enough that it shouldn't be a problem. Even if we dont pick Ming at #1 he will never slide past #2.
