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Yao Stats Update - Awakening of the Sleeping Giant? Part 2

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Tango, Mar 5, 2006.

  1. Tango

    Tango Member

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    I was asked to update the stats etc. I posted in this thread:
    http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=109385

    Here are the updates to the stats and trend analysis posted. I've done a couple of things different since some folks were having trouble trying to make sense from the charts. In this latest version I've done two things: (1) tried to highlight things so they are more easily identified, (2) provided all Yao's career gamelog stats for a broader view of his development.

    Points Per Game Analysis:
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Nothing really new here but there are two things I wanted to try and help point out more clearly this time around:

    (1) The original trends might have been a little harder to make sense of. In this version notice the PURPLE highlights that illustrate a key trend I was trying to point out with the data. The highlights represent games where Yao scored 20+ points during a stetch of games where he was averaging 20+ ppg over a 4 game stretch (moving average).

    Notice the number of times (frequency) and the closeness (spread) of these 20+ ppg spots in 2005-2006 compared to the rest of his career thus far. There are 6 stretches of these highlights tightly packed in 2005-2006.

    The closest other times in his career that are even remotely similar are at best 3 stretches of these 20+ppg during periods of 20+ppg 4 game avg.

    All this simply means is what has been previously discussed in the other thread is that Yao is consistenly scoring more than 20+ ppg.

    (2) The 2nd thing I wanted to point is a comment that I keep seeing floating around on the BBS that Yao hasn't achieved anything more consistent offensively than other stretches we've seen in his career.

    Hopefully by examining the data presented this will dispell this myth and point out the fact that Yao has become much more consistent than any other time in his career.

    Rebounds Per Game Analysis:

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Charts are simply an update. Nothing more I wanted to point out here more than what's been posted in the previous thread.

    Enjoy :)
     
  2. m_cable

    m_cable Member

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    Man I love these graphs. Keep up the good work Tango. Although it seems like you made a mistake with the most recent "ppg (4 game moving average)". The red line spikes up all the way to 32 ppg, when shouldn't it be at the average of Yao's final 4 games and not only his most recent match against the Blazers.

    Also I remember another one of your graphs where you charted Yao's minutes played. Well I just wanted to add that Yao is undoubtedly in the best shape of his life. In the past 6 games, he's averaging about 37 minutes a game, and showing no ill-effects of the additional minutes. In fact, tonight he sat down with 5 minutes to go in the game and already 36 minutes played, and he looked fresh enough to finish the game.

    The improvements that Yao has made this year since his toe surgery are absolutely astounding. His Points, Rebounds, and Minutes are up while Fouls and Turnovers are down. His Blks are steady, and even Asts are crawling up to his rookie year totals.

    Yao has always been an efficient player for his minutes. But now, he's playing the big minutes and producing the big numbers. And beyond the numbers, Yao has really been dominant and unstoppable.

    Here's to Yao continuing his progress and maintaining his growing expectations for the rest of the season and the rest of his career.
     
  3. Tango

    Tango Member

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    Thanks for catching that. It's an artifact with the way I graphed it to keep the time scale the same between graphs (0203-0304 vs 0405-0506) without penalizing Yao for the games he was out. Nothing I can do about it unless I physically erase the up tick.
     
  4. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    Your charts demonstrate, without question, that Yao is a significantly better player post-surgery than he's ever been before.

    Your charts from before motivated me to graph other aspects of Yao's progress this season (like per-minute averages, true shooting% which combines field goals and free throws, turnover-rate, and assist-rate). I'll post them shortly.

    ---

    I'm looking at his progress in three categories so far this season: TS%, Assist-rate, and Turnover-rate (all explained below). This link shows how he's done in these categories in previous years.

    [​IMG]

    This shows his True Shooting%. Formula is (1/2)*points / (fga + 0.44*fta). Demonstrates how efficient he is as a scorer. Above 55% is very good, and over 60% is a league leading pace. Obviously, he's been exceptional this season, though he was even more efficient last season.


    [​IMG]

    Turnover rate gives an idea of how often he turn the ball over relative to the possessions he's a part of. Over 15 is usually bad. Yao's been at around 13 in previous seasons, so he's definitely improving (particularly in the last few weeks).

    [​IMG]

    Assist rate shows how often he assists relative to the possessions he's a part of. Yao isn't used much as a passer, and his season average hasn't varied too much, though since the all-star break he is starting to get more and more assists because he's dealing with double teams better (i.e., not turning the ball over as much).
     
    #4 durvasa, Mar 6, 2006
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2006
  5. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Member

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    Awesome charts. I wonder what KG's look like. It's been widely noticed on this board that he progressed in manner very similar to Yao.
     
  6. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    Here are some graphs for per-40 minute stats. Check here to compare with his previous seasons.

    Points
    [​IMG]

    Rebounds
    [​IMG]

    Offensive Rebounds
    [​IMG]

    Defensive Rebounds
    [​IMG]

    Assists
    [​IMG]

    Blocks
    [​IMG]

    Turnovers
    [​IMG]

    Personal Fouls
    [​IMG]

    The only area in which Yao has clearly gone down (compared to previous seasons) is shot-blocking. Notice that there was a large dip in blocked shots in December -- perhaps this was due to his toe problems.

    And, as observed by others, his biggest improvements appear to be rebounding, turnovers, and especially staying out of foul trouble of late.
     
    #6 durvasa, Mar 6, 2006
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2006
  7. beyao

    beyao Member

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    Damn... if this aint the best fan site in the world or what??!!...
     
  8. arkoe

    arkoe (ง'̀-'́)ง

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    You guys are freaks... I love this place. :D
     
  9. DeAleck

    DeAleck Member

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    Geesh, all these charts and analysis...

    Scientists and statistians, just tell us the conslusion! Yao is now Kareem, right?
     
  10. Tango

    Tango Member

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    durvasa: thanks for posting the charts :D!

    Two things I wanted to point out from your charts:

    (1) Yao's per-40-min-pts: starting in Dec 05 until now you can see a linear trend going upward. There was the discussion regarding his offensive performance being driven primarily by the number of minutes he plays. I think his per-40-min-pts stat demonstrates that he's producing more for every minute that he plays.

    If his offensive production was merely a function of the number of minutes that he played then I believe we would have seen his per-40-min-pts stat remain flat.

    (2) Yao's blocks-per-40-min: I had been wondering if his blocks going down coincided with his decreased # of fouls meaning that he was trying less to contest every shot in order to reduce his fouls. Your graphs I think dispels that idea. For 05-06 you can see where he takes a dip in Dec 05 but then surges back up again post surgery.
     
  11. Tango

    Tango Member

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    :D heh- that is a challenge for some other time do those types of comparisons!
     
  12. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
    Supporting Member

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    i think its pretty clear when you see the fouls per 40 decline everything else goes up.
     
  13. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    You're right. Though his improvements, per minute, aren't quite as dramatic as per game, it's still clearly there. That he's playing more minutes while doing this makes it even more impressive.

    Yeah, early in the season his blocks went way down even while his fouls went up. I find it interesting that in his current stretch, his fouls are way down while his rebounding (both on offense and defensive end) has gone up. Actually, his offensive rebounding in this stretch is by far the best of the season. Maybe his lack of foul trouble allows him to be more aggressive going for the boards?
     
  14. bigbodymoe

    bigbodymoe Member

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    Spoken words from a truly "random idiot" :p ;) :D
     
  15. watashi315

    watashi315 Member

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    Although I give props to the guy who came up with all the graphics and charts, I have to say you guys have absolutely nothing better to do all day that turning Yao into a scientific study. Just let him play ball and enjoy the fruit of his hard work. We don't need to crunch numbers and stats about his rebounding or scoring history. It's so no necessary and spills into the territory of over-analyzation. ;)
     
  16. RocketForever

    RocketForever Member

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    This is just your own opinion. I think there are a lot more people like me who would like to know in which areas Yao has improved the most.

    Thank you for the good works, Tango.
     
  17. terse

    terse Member

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    Fantastic, Tango and Durvasa, and thanks. One question though: where do you guys get the raw data? I get an occasional urge to check into Juwan's stats, but have no idea where to get the data.
     
  18. DeAleck

    DeAleck Member

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    Tango and Durvasa, are you guys looking for a job with the Rockets? K-Dawg, are you reading this thread?
     
  19. Tango

    Tango Member

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    www.basketball-reference.com for past season stats.

    Everything else I just grab from different places - espn, cbssportsline, cnnsi, foxsports, and the NBA itself.
     
  20. jopatmc

    jopatmc Member

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    Just make sure your graph paper has negative quadrants for that one. LOL.
     

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