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Yao is Playing 75% of Minutes, Not 50%. [Perspective]

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Rasselas, Oct 26, 2010.

  1. Rasselas

    Rasselas Member

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    People keep saying: "Yao Ming is only playing half a game."

    Yes and no. Yes, technically, when you look at the potential minutes he could play, this is obviously true.

    But that seems misguided. It exaggerates the constraint. No one plays 48 minutes a game. Almost no one plays 40 minutes a game. In fact, there are plenty of "Star" players that average in the 30-35 minute a game range.

    A few:

    Tim Duncan - 31.1
    Al Harrington - 30.5
    Steve Nash - 32.8
    Dwight Howard - 34.7
    Amare Stoudemire - 34.6
    Jamal Crawford - 31.1
    Corey Maggette - 29.7
    Chauncey Billups - 34.1
    Carolos Boozer - 34.1

    Another guy:
    Yao Ming (career): 32.7

    These are not scrubs. These are not thought of as part-time players.

    Yes, I get that the above numbers are averages, not maximums, and there are nights when Tim Duncan plays more than 31 minutes. I get that. But there's really no reason that Yao should average much less than 24, as he'll rarely have to worry about foul trouble or fatigue. I'd be shocked if he averages less than 23.

    Here's my point:

    The prevailing mindset: "Ahhhhhww, man, we only have Yao for half a game!"
    The more accurate mindset: "We'll have Yao Ming for roughly 75% of his usual time."

    Assuming Yao gets his confidence back--and, from the preseason, this looks plausible--we don't have 50% of a Yao Ming. We have 75% of a Yao Ming. That's a big difference.

    True, this doesn't factor in the back-to-backs he'll be missing. And yes, gameflow matters, and there are times when it will really, really suck to yank him from the game. Some of this, though, could be offset by the benefit of him always being fresh and rested. No more Yao grabbing his shorts. No more worried about foul-trouble. He could be more efficient during his minutes. So a 25%ish drop in minutes might only mean a 15%-ish drop in production.

    (Quick aside: If I'm Rick Adelman, once Yao has played 18 minutes--probably in 3rd quarter--I yank him from the game, and put him back in with 6 minutes in the 4th quarter, always, every game, barring a blowout. This helps with consistency and gives the team confidence that Yao will be there in the stretch to close games, and, once he checks in at 6:00 left in the 4th, we can take our eye off the minute-counter. I hope Rick does this.)

    Put differently: All of the national media people (and some of our own) handicap the Rockets season and bring up the "Half a Game" Yao stat. Would their analysis be different, maybe, if they looked at it like this: "Yao Ming will average 8 minutes less a game than usual." Huh. Somehow that's way less scary.

    Okay. Long post. Excited for tonight. Let's ruin a ring ceremony.
     
    32 people like this.
  2. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    Great point, we are only talking about 8 less minutes a game, and by the end of the year he should be back to normal.

    Nice perspective...repped.

    DD
     
  3. arjun

    arjun Member

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    good point! i overlooked that as well!
     
  4. Rock3t Man

    Rock3t Man Member

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    I don't care, 50% Yao, 75% Yao, One Armed Yao, is better than no Yao!
     
  5. asmith8266

    asmith8266 Member

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    Excellent point. I shall be using this in my daily arguments with r****ded Spurs/Mavs fans.
     
  6. WinorLoseMate

    WinorLoseMate Member

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    I definitely overlooked this aspect. Good post.

    However, do you think limiting game time by 8 minutes per game will really make that much of a difference? Did they do any analysis as to why it is 8 minutes per game and not 12 or 6 or did they just think 24 was a good round number?
    I personally think they could have cut training time instead of actual game time. But who knows? Yao might be more effective in short bursts and put up similar stats to his 08-09 production of close to 20 and 10.
     
  7. DreamShook

    DreamShook Member

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    "One of these things is not like the other things."

    <object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/tZIvgQ9ik48?fs=1&amp;hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/tZIvgQ9ik48?fs=1&amp;hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object>
     
  8. harryrms

    harryrms Member

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    Great analysis! A new angle to look at things. I like it. :)
     
  9. greatpacha1

    greatpacha1 Member

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    yup, thats what i was telling my roommates...good call to publicly post it..lol
     
  10. ClutchCityReturns

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    Not just one.
     
  11. kovacs242

    kovacs242 Member

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  12. ClutchCityReturns

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    I had this exact thought yesterday.

    Is 8 minutes less than normal really that bad when the quality of those minutes is likely to increase? There were too many times back in the day when Yao would struggle during long stretches on the court. That would lead to fast break points for the other team, mishandled entry passes, and getting burned when he couldn't properly "show" on the pick and roll simply because he was exhausted.

    Not that he won't get tired at times, but it should be noticeably less of a problem. Less tired also equals less foul prone, which was another one of Yao's limitations in previous seasons.

    As you pointed out, 24 minutes per game is a limit and not an average. His true average may drop below 24 while that limit is in place, but some of that will be a reflection on the success of the team. He will be used a full 24 when needed, and he will sit when not needed (during a blow out). So in a way, an average of 20 or 21 minutes would be effectively just as good as an average of 24 when it comes to the bottom line.

    I agree with the idea of playing Yao 18 minutes through 3 quarters and saving him for the final 6 minute stretch. My question is how we can get him into the game more often at the end of all quarters, when the team is in the penalty and he (according to Morey) becomes the most effective offensive threat in the league? As of right now, he seems to be playing the first 6 minutes of quarters so he can run with the starters.

    Could Yao be more effective with the second unit? It's worth consideration, in my opinion.
     
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  13. waytookrzy079

    waytookrzy079 Member

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    Nice post... i also wanted to add to that...

    For some reason, many assume that Yao wont be in the game in the closing minutes of the game during crunch time. This is pretty obvious to me.. you need your big guns down the stretch.

    I'm sure the coaching staff already has a plan in place to play Yao in the 1st 6 minutes and last 6 minutes of each half. Things will become difficult using Yao down the stretch ONLY if there is an overtime period.

    I think we'll be just fine. I expect both our defense and offense to be at least top 8 in the league and we'll finish at least top 5 in the West.
     
  14. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    CCR,

    Also, if the team is winning after playing those 18 mins through 3 quarters, maybe you don't have to even play Yao in the 4th......saving him even further stress.

    DD
     
  15. albuster

    albuster Member

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    Great analysis. We need more of these. Repped.
     
  16. ClutchCityReturns

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    Exactly.

     
  17. nolimitnp

    nolimitnp Member

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    Repped as well, excellent point (although I cringed when I saw Al Harrington included with the rest in the list) However, just like Adelman said, let's not pencil in Yao for 24 minutes a game right away. Its unfair to Yao. He's not playing back-to-back either, right? How many of those do we have this year?
     
  18. ClutchCityReturns

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    Off the top of my head, we have right around 17.
     
  19. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    I like this perspective. Also, I think Yao is the kind of player where a little goes a long way. He has unique abilities that make him a matchup nightmare for opponents. But he also has unique weaknesses that make him struggle a lot against certain kinds of players. Now, since there's no pressure to play him starter minutes, we can focus on having him on the floor only when the matchups are advantageous.
     
  20. mlwoo

    mlwoo Contributing Member

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    You should have made a JCDenton graph for us.
     

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