Working Backwards In middle school, we all had to solve a bunch of freaking equations. At some point, we were all told to work backwards to solve problems. Clutchfans - To figure out what this team will look like next year and the roles the players will play, I suggest that we work backwards from the primary players, and the roles of the remaining players become clear. All good teams have well established 1st, 2nd and 3rd options, so that the team plays efficiently and players know who they should defer to. Less hesitation, greater speed, deadly efficiency. It is Rick Adelman's job to define these roles so that the team makes the most of its talent. Fortunately, I have a few minutes of time to do this for him. Lead Dogs 1a. Yao should be a 30 mpg and 18 ppgish player. There's no way we ride the big man for 35mpg next year. - Yao will be featured some in the low post. However, three factors will prevent him from being the low post horse that we ride: (i) health; (ii) fronting (lest we forget); and (iii) this year's progress in executing Adelman's motion offense. 1b. Kevin Martin should be a 35mpg+ and 20+ppg player. He will and should be featured at all times on the floor, with and without Yao. Do you honestly think Morey or Adelman have any lesser role in mind? 2. Aaron Brooks should be a 15ppg player, with a greater focus on finding Martin and Yao, and shooting from distance. No, he shouldn't abandon his scorer role completely. He should be opportunistic depending on the matchup. Yao and Martin are not Shaq and Kobe. They will have off nights and Brooks will be needed, period. The rest of the players should have different roles in different stages of the game. IMO, there are three key stages of the game, as follows: The Actors on the Three Key Stages of the Game Stage 1 - Starters Lineup: Brooks-Martin-Ariza-Scola-Yao - No slow starts on offense. - Option 1: establish Yao in the low post - Option 2: establish Martin off cuts, screens, PNR. - Brooks, Martin and Ariza can all shoot from distance if the defense sags to prevent entry pass, and when Yao kicks the ball out. - If Yao is fronted, he can move to the high post and open the lane for Martin and Brooks. - Ariza and Scola are your spot up shooters, rebounders, scrappers and defenders. Stage 2: Shock and Awe: Begins late first (and third) quarter at the 2:00 minute mark, until mid 2nd quarter. Remember, Yao is limited to 9-10 minutes in 1st/3rd quarter, and comes back with 6-7 minutes left in 2nd/4th quarter. In other words, Yao sits for around 8 minutes. Primary Lineup: Lowry/Martin/Buddinger/Scola/Jeffries (and other bigs to rotate in) - Option 1: Lowry pushes the ball for early offense - Option 2a: Run Adelman offense with Martin and Buddinger (to a lesser degree) on wings as primary scorers. - Option 2b: Scola in low post - Lowry, Scola, Jeffries are your rebounders, scrappers and defenders Mad Scientist element: If the opponents have a strong wing scorer off the bench, Adelman may have to use Ariza/Battier instead of Martin. If matchups favor going small, go with Brooks/Lowry. Whatever the combination of PG/SG/SF, we have to go all out energy and tempo. This is where Adelman has to make his money. Stage 3: Closing Time: Down the stretch in the 4th quarter, around 8 minutes to go. Lineup: Brooks or Lowry - Martin - Ariza - Scola - Yao. - Same offensive philosophy as in first quarter. All good teams close with their lead horses. - Like Smith/Cassell, as between Brooks and Lowry, Adelman should go with the hot hand to close. - If Ariza returns to his true role as defender and spot up shooter, then he's a closer. If he is battling inconsistency, Adelman will go with Battier. Final comments: - The debate about Brooks v. Lowry is somewhat overblown. There's room for both in the Shock and Awe phase and in Closing time. I start Brooks over Lowry because: (i) Brooks hits from distance and (ii) Lowry a proven leader of Shock and Awe, just give him folks that will run with him. We don't have multiple top 10 players in our starting lineup, so we have to have a ++ bench. (Think Sacto Kings and Portland Trailblazers) - Ariza is going to be fine and will be great asset next year. His efficiency will go up the most when roles are established. He is an elite role player. I predict he will become a fan favorite. - Finally: Imagine plugging in a Deljuan Blair type of a player into Shock and Awe. How about Greg Monroe? Morey will do all he can to add a quality big and I'm not betting against him. If he does, this team is locked and loaded for each stage of the game.
looks pretty ok to me except where would battier fit in? and also i think scola would be over used i think the big/ideal picture would be having jeffries come in for scola and hill replace Yao...of course a lot of this would be dependent on Hill's developement over the next 8 months i think this summer is going to be crucial for Hill I hope he stays in houston and works extensively with the trainers and coaches. the same goes for jermaine taylor, he hasnt much time but I think he can be a valuable player off the bench I think teams will have a hard time adjusting to a more traditional half court offense with the projected starting 5 next season to an athletic fast uptempo lineup of lowry/taylor/bud/jeffries/hill the summer will be interesting
Unless Arize stumbles badly and cannot play with Yao, Battier becomes a 20 mpg player. He has lost a step but can play well in bursts as a defender and off the bench. Buddinger is emerging quickly and must be given minutes. We have a gap at the PF spot. With Yao playing 30 mpg, and Scola logging 35 mpg, that leaves 31 minutes left at the backup C and PF spot. Jeffries can take half of that. We lack a quality big. Andersen is useless (totally in my doghouse), which leaves Hayes and Hill. Hayes is redundant with Jeffries and Hill is unproven. All signs point to Morey drafting a big. Alternatively, we move Battier and then use the MLE to sign a quality big, but I doubt it.
My guess is he'll be packaged for a playmaking wing. It's beginning to look like the Spurs will re-up Manu, they don't really have an option not to. That leaves Prince...
i agree all signs point to C-Bud replacing Batter in the rotation. i think battier gets packaged on trade night. i love your idea of scola ariza spot up scorers and defenders
Any lineup with Jermaine Taylor in it will just be like playing 1 on 5 (1 player being Jermain Taylor)
could be he hasnt really had much "real" playing time I think this summer his development will be crucial on how he trains and plays. I really do think he should have been in the D-league still its better he is playing somewhere than sitting on the bench. I am pretty sure the Rockets will ask him to play on their summer league squad again this year. Him and Hill. I think the biggest exciting thing about this is that the Rockets next year is not only can they play various styles of ball but really can force other teams to adjust to either style since they have enough potential talent in either lineup to do so.
1.That starting lineup might just give up 30 points per quarter. 2 bad defenders is OK, but 3 bad defenders is as bad as 3 bad offensive players. 2. With Martin-Ariza-Scola-Yao(3 of them better or equally efficient than Brooks), why do you need Brooks on the floor, who is only effective when he scores, but not enough shots for him to score? 3. Fronting will be a less issue. Martin and Ariza on the opposite side will get to the rim much easier than last year if that happens. They attack the rim much faster than Artest/Battier. 4. Ariza's 3 point shooting should go up with less attention on him and less offensive duty on him. We'll have enough outside shooting power.
The Rockets haven't, or at least I sure hope they haven't, given up on the free agents of 2010. This team still has a great shot to look significantly different by Nov 2010, for the better obviously.
I was thinking of similar line-ups at different stages, but I think you have to adjust based on scouting reports and injuries. None of this matters if guys don't execute, so it would be nice for the core squad to spend some time together and cement their roles. This will come with time. We were a 50+ win team because we had cohesive units and stingy defense. I think we'll get there again as long as the key players stay healthy and focused. With that said, good on ya, mate!
I am kind of hoping the 2010-11 Rox look like a mutated version of the 94-95 Indiana Pacers... Reggie Miller - Kevin Martin Rik Smits - Yao Ming Derrick McKey - Trevor Ariza Dale Davis - Luis Scola(More "O" less "D") Mark Jackson - ABrooks(Brooks way more "O" but not close to the distributor) Antonio Daivs - Chuck Hayes Bryon Scott - Chase Budinger Haywoode Workman - Kyle Lowry Sam Mitchell - JJ or Shane Of course they're not identical but something like this would make me a happy guy. Now if they could pickup another piece it could evolve nicely.
Great, great thread! I enjoyed reading from someone who knows a bit about basketball and this team and I agree.
Great thread Rileydog. Assuming we don't pick up a superstar in a sign and trade over the summer, I am hopeful that Hill will actually prove to be a good PF after getting training from the Rockets' big man coaches. I see him as the backup to Scola, not Jeffries (unless we get a really good big man in the draft).
good thread man, keep it up! I do think with a decent backup for Yao and a PF in the equation, and luck that Yao doesn't go down again, then yeah, this would work out.
