Winning streak comparison - with Yao and without

I originally wanted to post this in the "Who thinks this team is better w/out Yao?" thread, but it's already very cluttered there. I'd like to start the discussion in a new thread. Here's my take on it.

Defensively, I do think we are slightly better without Yao. The sample size(four games) isn't large enough that one game against the Wizards skews the defensively stats tremendously. We do play better against smaller lineups without Yao and it seems the majority of teams in the league have smaller lineups. However, we will not fare better, without Yao, against bigger lineups(single possession defense at end of games notwithstanding). Deke, the only sizeable player, playing defense for 20 minutes will not make up for Yao playing defense 30+ plus minutes. So, taking into account the size of opponent lineups and that we are more likely to face bigger lineups in the playoffs(Spurs, Mavs, Lakers, Jazz), we'd be better with Yao in the playoffs! As for the regular season games, yes, we are slightly better defensively without Yao -- we were already the second or third best defensive team with him!

Offensively, we aren't really better without Yao as our scoring indicates in the last four games. Here are three reasons why we aren't better:


1) We played only FOUR games(during winning streak) without Yao -- THREE of which are against the worst defensive teams in the league!

I'm using points per game given as a simple measure for defense here because opponent shooting percentage does not account for FTs given up and offensive rebounds given up.

1.Golden State 107.8
2.Memphis 105.8
3.Indiana 105.2
4.Phoenix 104.7
5.Denver 104.6
...
20. Washington 98.4


These four teams have an average winning percentage of 0.427 and gave up an average of 103.4 PPG. The team without Yao scored 107.5 PPG and gave up 88.0 PPG. They scored 4.1 points above the opponents's average PPG given up which is pretty good.

Now, lets look at the numbers during the 12 game win streak with Yao. Those 12 teams have a winning percentage of 0.449 and gave up an average of 100.0 points per game. The team with Yao scored 100.0 PPG and gave up 89.7 PPG.

Now, 4.1 points over is better than 0 points over the average, but the Rockets with Yao has played teams that are better defensively and better overall. Though the season points average for the Rockets is 97.1, the recent team is obviously an above average offensive team. Intuitively, an above average offensive team should expect to score better than the average PPG given up by any team. A below average offensive team should score below the average PPG given up by any team. Thus, the team with Yao can expect to score more than 103.4 points against these four teams. But why can't the team with Yao score more than 100.0 points if they are an above offensive team? Well, for all teams in the league, the median PPG scored is 97.7 and the median PPG given up is 99.5. That tells you that the worse the team is defensively, the easier it is to score above it's average PPG given up by that team. So, this doesn't indicate that the team is better offensively without Yao -- if anything, I'd say we're equally as good on offense in the four games thus far.


2) Rafer Alston and Luis Scola have shot WAY above their season average during the four games.

In those four games, Rafer shot 48.1% (26 for 54) and Luis shot 65.9% (27 for 41). In the 12 game win streak with Yao, Rafer shot 42.6%( season average is 40.8%) and Luis shot 58.7% (season average is 53.1%). Their increased percentage adds three points more to the PPG average than when they were playing with Yao in those 12 games! Maybe they do play better without Yao, and/or maybe they are playing better because of inferior opponent defense. But, anyone can be hot for a stretch of games and I don't think anyone will expect Rafer and Luis to shoot this hot for the rest of the season.


3) We shot an amazingly high 78.0%(46 for 59) at the FT line!

Minus Yao, the team shot a measly 66.7% before these four games. With Yao, the team shot 72.7%. Who'd thought we'd shoot 78% at the FT line without Yao? Though, we averaged only 14.8 FTs per game(22.4 with Yao), hitting 78.8% instead of 66.7% added 1.7 points to PPG average.


Yes, we run up our number of possessions without Yao, but if we count two FTs as one possession, the difference is only two or three possessions. With Yao, we turned it over 13.9 times per game and forced 13.2 oponent TOs. Without Yao we turned it over 12.8 times and forced 12.3. So, the TO difference is a non-factor other than that it gives us one more possession, but it also gives opponents a possession as well. Offensive rebounds are about the same and defensive rebounds are up.

So, in summary, we play better defense against smaller lineups without Yao, but I suspect we won't be as good defensively against bigger lineups. Our advantage is that the majority of lineups in the league are smaller with undersized PFs and Cs. In the last four games, we are just as good offensively without Yao as we are with him. However, it took inferior opponent defense, improved FT shooting, and hot shooting from Rafer and Luis to to make up for Yao's absence. In the long run we won't be as good without Yao, especially in the playoffs.