As quoted in John Fund's column today. First pundit he took a shot at. Major props, Will. www.opinionjournal.com/diary/?id=65000297 ------------------
Well, I dunno if Bush is toast, but he is certainly in the toaster and the "darkness dial" is turned up to 6 or 7. The debates will be the determining factor in this election. ------------------ I am the b*stard son of LHutz. Huh? Right!
Can Bush turn himself around? Theoretically, yes. But stupidity and stubbornness are traits. It's unrealistic to expect a person who has just done a series of stupid and stubborn things to stop being stupid and stubborn. It took Bush and his team days to accept that nobody else saw the debate controversy the way they did. Their retreat from that ploy raised momentary hopes that they were capable of self-correction—which they promptly dashed by approving a second sarcastic attack ad virtually identical to the one that had just failed. A candidate who puts pride before prudence, refuses to learn from his mistakes, and is capable of living for days in an alternate political universe can only survive while he's ahead. Once he falls behind, there's no reason to think he's up to the task of correcting his course and regaining control of the race. I've thought since the primaries that Bush's weakest area was his unwillingness to back off on things. Sometimes, he looks like he is going to bust a vein over questions asked of him by reporters. Nice job, Will. That took a lot of research. ------------------ Save Our Rockets and Comets SaveOurRockets.com
Damnit Will, Dubyah has gathered himself. Did any of you actually READ that article? The most accurate pollsters of 96 have Bush ahead. I don't know what to think about polls. What happens first? A poll citing someone ahead by a large margin, or does the margin dictate the turnout. Do people that see large leads get lazy? Regardless, while Gore wastes time in California... for reasons that I do not understand... Bush is back. And he could very well be the next president. ------------------ "Everyone I know has a big but... come on Simone, let's talk about your but."
Sounds like wishful thinking to me. The election is far too close to call at this point. I love the irony though. Consider the views here. In the one corner we have Will saying "Bush is toast." In the other corner we have Rush Limbaugh saying "Gore is toast." The final outcome will be interesting indeed. One can only hope that VP Gore will continue to tell amusing anecdotes of his second childhood. ------------------
Maybe it's just me, but Will isn't exactly the guardian of all things liberal. The difference between he and Limbaugh is that Will is a journalist and Limbaugh is a talk show host. Will did point out quite a few numbers in his story and, knowing what I do about research in the field of journalism, pulling all those together into a story is no small feat. ------------------ Save Our Rockets and Comets SaveOurRockets.com
Jeff, My comparison between Will and Limbaugh is limited to the fact that an identical phrase is used by both of them. I don't know Will's positions on anything and Limbaugh is far too liberal for me. No slight was meant to Will's research efforts either. I'm sure Limbaugh is diligent in his efforts as well. The irony to me is that pundits on both sides (Not just Will or Limbaugh) are declaring the race over and their candidate as the victor. (And yes I'm assuming that Will intends to vote for Gore.) That fact just buttresses the truth that the race is still extremely close. ------------------ [This message has been edited by JT (edited September 21, 2000).]
Thank you, Jeff. What I need in this thread is a good vegetarian pacifist to debunk my liberal credentials. You know all those Democratic heresies Joe Lieberman had to shut up about after Gore put him on the ticket -- vouchers, tort reform, raising the retirement age? I love those heresies. Bush is toast. Don't just sit there and shrug and say "it's too early" or "it's wishful thinking." Read the article, or at least read the polls to which it linked. The numbers tell the story. The wishful thinking is on the other side: Republicans claiming that "the polls are biased" or "people can change their minds." People have been changing their minds, away from Bush, for discernible reasons. Reasons aren't whims. They don't disappear easily. The sensible approach is to examine those reasons and see whether they prevent so many people from voting for Bush that he can't be elected. The answer to that question, unfortunately for the GOP, is yes. The Republicans lost their best chance of winning this election when they killed off John McCain. Maybe they'll think better of that decision in 2004.
Will: I'm as hopeful as you are... but I think that you miss something about that article. Large margins shown by flakey Newsweek polls, and tiny 4 point leads that barely break the margin of error are not something to brag about. Gore during the next week needs to be the Gore of two weeks ago. He needs to rally groups other than senior citizens + women (which as the article points out, do not vote in proportion to their political leanings). He needs to talk to the 22-45 year olds. Talk about Bush's idiotic tax cut. Gore will not win solely on the "I'll protect your grandma" vote. Just as a reminder, once when I was at band camp, I watched the Rockets loose a 23 point lead against the Spurs. ------------------ "Everyone I know has a big but... come on Simone, let's talk about your but."
Read the article, Will. What I got out of it was that the polls are inconsistent and may not mean very much. I wouldn't put a lot of faith in any of them. The only poll that counts is the one in November. In the meantime, we have to listen to that unbiased "news reporter" George what's-his-name. I think he and Dan Rather are in bed together, along with Bernard Shaw. ------------------ "Who Wants To Be A Rocket?" - and probably a millionaire as well. The off-season will be interesting!
3 times in America's history has a president won the electoral vote while losing the popular vote. It's possible that can happen this year too. According to MSNBC's projections, Gore likely has 242 votes, Bush has 188 and there are 108 up for grabs. 270 is the magic number. Florida's 25 votes, Ohio's 21 votes and Michigan's 18 votes are all crucial to who wins.
Um, Bobby, Will WROTE the article. By the way, Will, nice job. Especially as we now know that you had a few other things going on in your life!! ------------------
Jeff: You talk of stupidity in reference to George W., but it was Gore who, by his own admission, was being rocked to sleep in his cradle by his mother at the age of 27. Either that or he's a liar (referring to his comments that he was rocked to sleep by his mother who sang to him a union song that was not written until 1974.) Lying has become commonplace, especially among the Democratic party. But never before has lying been done so stupidly. Let's not forget Gore invented the internet, and was the inspiration for "Love Story." This guy is just pathological. ------------------
Super Dave: You misread what I said. Will used the term "stupidity." What I said was that Bush was unwilling to back off on things. The mark of a good politician and a good person is the ability to be open-minded and flexible about your decisions. If it isn't working, change it. If you are weak in that area, admit it and emphasize your strength somewhere else. This is not to say Gore doesn't have all kinds of problems also. He does. As a politician, he has many of the same issues that I hate. He's full of crap like the rest of them. As most here know, I'm not voting for either but I am voting if for nothing else than to pass the arena. I'll be voting for Nader in the presidential election and I know it doesn't really matter because Bush will easily win Texas anyway, but I just don't care for either of them enough to give them my vote. ------------------ Save Our Rockets and Comets SaveOurRockets.com
Will, I did read the articles, both yours and the one that cited it. I have also seen the majority of the polls you cite. While I admire your writing and communication skills, I don't agree with all of your conclusions. That is beside the point of my post though. What struck me was the common use of language between yourself and Limbaugh and the insistence of people on both sides of the race that the election is a done deal one way or another. While I can't blame you for having an aversion to being mentioned in the the same breath as Limbaugh, you are simply the victim of having used the same figure of speech that he did to describe your position. I meant no more disrespect to you or your work than you did to me for assuming I hadn't read your article. ------------------
Achebe -- "friviolous legal action??" you mean the legal action that ended up with tons of Clinton cronies leaving the country, taking the 5th or going to jail for?? Or do you mean the frivilous action that led to Clinton being the first president in history to be held in contempt of court...and possibly worthy of disbarment?? Your take on Gore's energy policy is interesting. I certainly find it inconsistent for someone who has spoken out against the use of the automobile and "big oil" so much to now talk about tapping into the reserve to lower the price of oil, thus making it more available for mass consumption. Apparently I'm not the only one...I've read some editorials by liberal columnists asking Gore why he's switiching his long-held stance on this issue. Of course, they could check his Congressional record and see the tons of inconsistencies with his current, more popular stances on issues in this campaign (as Senator Bradley tried to do during the primaries.) Clearly it's to win votes up north where heating oil concerns are growing. I don't see him really making an argument on our dependency. When Clinton came into office we had 50% of our energy needs met by foreign sources...today that number is 59%. But Gore has previously said he would not allow new exploration in the United States...or at least he would limit it further. And make no mistake about it...our government stands to lose a lot of tax revenue (something liberals love) if we ever do turn to alternative fuel sources. One more question...why are environmentalists so concerned with new exploration here?? Domestic fuel is transported primarily through pipelines, whereas foreign oil comes in on tankers. Pipelines are safer and easier to control...you can't shut a valve on a damaged tanker, however. It seems the likelihood of an environmental disaster (like the Valdez) are greater when oil is being shipped overseas instead of being transported through pipelines. ------------------
MadMax, I too think that Gore's switch is interesting. It truly seems inconsistent when you consider the tax arguments both sides are making. Gore argues to protect the surplus for the future, that the revenue might not in fact be there and that emergencies do happen. Now he trys to be the activist and say "throw caution to the wind", let us use the gas reserve to offset price gouging by OPEC and the domestic oil industries. It somewhat seems like an attempt to solidify support in Michigan... but given his strength there now, I think it's something else. It's a hello... an introduction, if you will. I think he's merely starting the trail with what will be a serious attempt to modify the ways in which we depend on gasoline. Al Gore is going to try to walk in JC's (Jimmy Carter ) footsteps but actually be successful at it. It will be interesting if the economy is up to it, and that tax cuts for proactive businesses don't backfire. That's a good point about pipelines vs. tankers. The media waves the Valdez around like a sparkler on July 4th... but those sorts of things occur all of the time. I think different arguments could be made about the validity of drilling in Alaska, though. First... much of the prospected oil is buried beneath permafrost. Remember when $18 was customary for a barrel of oil? It is now $35.00 and it's supposedly a big issue. Drilling in Alaska will be much more expensive and drive the cost up to $50 or $60 (an estimate I saw in an Environmental Geology class lecture given by a Structural (read: business) Geologist) a barrel. So, it is moot. If I flood the market with a more expensive product, supply side doesn't mean I'm not going to recur my costs. Right now, I think both politicians are dancing around the issue in a silly way. Gore is wrong because the reserve is for emergencies only. Bush is wrong because the only oil left for us to explore in quantity will be more expensive than what we've got now (I personally don't support subsidization from the government just to further hide costs to the economy). So, unless OPEC bends or the big Oil companies stop the gouging (alleged), Americans should 'get over it' or actually do something about it and explore alternative fuels. ------------------ "Everyone I know has a big but... come on Simone, let's talk about your but."
The other issue with exploration is that it is highly damaging to the environment overall. I know that I would prefer that alternate sources of fuel were used. Coal and oil are finite in nature. We can't expect to mine them forever. When environmentalists say they are against exploration, it is because: a. It rapes pristine land where much of the oil is found. It destroys forests that are natural habitats for endangered species and damages coastlines. You can bet that if we found oil pockets under NYC, there would be a whole hell of a lot of complaining over mining on 5th Ave., but, when it is out of the sight of the general public, it can go unchecked. b. It is stripping the planet of resources that won't last forever. Rather than exploring alternate sources of fuel that could potentially have positive effects both on the economy and the environment, they refuse to change saying it would cost Americans jobs. Well, maybe they could move those jobs to another industry. Bottom line is that the migration from fossil fuels to alternate sources of fuel will have to happen eventually as oil and coal become short in supply. I think it is better for everyone if that happens sooner rather than later. ------------------ Save Our Rockets and Comets SaveOurRockets.com
