Nope, not even close. But I really think this team has the potential to sneak into the playoffs in one of the lower seeds. We need to keep our expectations for this season realistic. This is still a maturing team, and the western conference will be an absolute bloodbath this season. To illustrate, take the 1995 Houston Rockets. We had, unarguably, the best player in the NBA that year but we limped into the playoffs as the 6th seed in a much weaker conference (as compared to '000). Now Steve Francis is very good, but to expect anything close from a sophomore to the production Olajuwon gave you in '95 is just ludicrous. Then factor in that the 2000 western conference is much tougher than the one in '95. I'm not saying it will be impossible to finish in the Top-5, but many things will have to fall into place perfectly for this to occur. 7. Health - With a young team, this won't be nearly as much a factor as it was in years past. The younger players are less likely to be slowed down by nagging injuries and can also recover faster. Still, health is a factor as a major injury to a key player could prove devastating. 6. Role Players - Norris, Thomas, Walt, Langhi, Collier, and Olajuwon all have certain expectations. With Drew traded, the responsibility is on Norris' shoulders to enter the lineup and change the tempo. We need a shooter in the starting lineup at the small forward, and with Langhi not ready, Walt will again be the guy. I do not trust Walt, and I fear he will again go cold when we need him most. After watching Collier at the Revue I have absolutely no doubt he was a wasted pick. My only expectations of him are to get in shape and be ready to use his 6 fouls on Shaq accordingly. Anything more will be bonus. As for Olajuwon, it is ridiculous to expect anything more than 6 points and 4 boards per. A more reasonable expectation will be for him to play more than 2 minutes at a time, and sadly he will not be a real factor at all this season. Unlike Collier, I had never watched Langhi play prior to the Revue. Let's just say I was pleasantly surprised. I envision him eventually taking over for Walt at the '3', but as for this season I don't expect much from him due to his slender frame. Give him time and I think he will flourish under this system. 5. Mobley and Anderson - The gradual development of Mobley and Anderson's comfort zone will be big factors to our success this year. This is by far our strongest position and Rudy will take advantage of the contrast in styles. I see Mobley rounding out at 15ppg with average defense, and Anderson back at 12ppg with spectacular defense. Francis makes the Rockets go, but these two provide the fuel. 4. Francis - This should be lower on the list as the Rockets go where Francis goes, but I have chosen to rank this at #4 because it is inevitable. No question marks here, this is the year that Gary Payton is dethroned as the game's best playmaker. When you watch Francis play, you know that he wants to be the best player in the NBA. There isn't anything he can't do, and I am predicting a drastic change in defensive production. He has the lateral quickness and intensity, its just a matter of maturing. 22ppg, 8apg, 6rpg, 2spg are my honest predictions for next year's All-NBA guard selection. 3. Defense - I still firmly believe in the adage that, "...defense wins championships." I find it crucial that we acquire a frontcourt banger if we are to make any noise in the playoffs, but it doesn't look like Rudy is in agreeance. Anderson should be solid as usual, and it's good to hear that Francis and Mobley have improved their overall games. However, Cato is the key. 2. Taylor - Here's where I had my doubts. However, after reading the training camp write-ups, it really seems like Mo is proving me wrong and fitting in with the group. If his lack of defense and rebounding are really due to a lack of motivation as he claims, then he has some things going for him. At 6'11 (I swear from watching him play last year, he is not 6'9), 260, he has as much athletic ability as any '4' in the NBA, Garnett-Webber included. If Maurice can get his act together and fuse with the rest of this high-powered unit, I envision good things. To my surprise, he seems to be fitting in naturally, so I will be optimistic here and predict 20ppg with 8rpg. He averaged 16ppg last season on his own, so that should increase with the Franchise setting him up. Yep, I admitted it. I was probably (hopefully) wrong about Mo all along, and I am predicting big things for him this year. It won't be too bad having two 23 year old 20ppg scorers... 1. Cato - This is the big one here. The difference between not making the playoffs and finishing Top-5. If the Cato of last preseason returns for a full-82, we could be in for a fun ride. It seems like he honestly is disappointed in his performance last season. Cato is the biggest factor in this upcoming season, and if he can average 10ppg, 10rpg, and 3bpg, we could be a good team. However, this is a big "if". I don't see #7 and #6 that crucial, as this is a young team, and I expect the role players to fill their roles. #4 and #3 both have high chances of happening, but if they go down without the #3,#2 and #1, we will most probably not make the playoffs. Now if #1,#2 and #3 fall into place (as well as the rest, of course), I honestly think we could be as high as '4', and might be able to push some team to 5 games. Again, it is very unlikely that all these factors fall into place accordingly, but if they do, good things could be in store for this season. [This message has been edited by thacabbage (edited October 09, 2000).]
Great Post Cab. Yeah the depth in the west is amazing and we will do well to make the playoffs, the top5 although amy be another year off, not sure over 82 and considering the record from last yeat whether we can improve enough overall to finish in front of any of the Lakers, Blazers, Spurs, Utah or Sonics, you never know though. Imagine if we were in the East, we could be competing for a top4 spot. I agree with your #4-7, but I think Defense will be the most important and then MO and Cato as equal second important. I think your smamation of Dream input might be spot on and this place a very large burden on Cato, hope he steps up. If Mo really is 6-11 is there any chance we will see him play some 5 spot. Improvement is the key and considering the record from last year and the turn around in players and average age (as compared to two years ago) anything above 41 wins will be a great job and a giant step in the right direction. However if we have 2 20 point scorers (Mo and Steve) and 2 15 point scorers (Cat and Andy) and two 10 point scorers (cato and Walt) and contributions from Dream and Langhi and IF this is coupled with greatly improved defense then playoff could be possibly. Smeg ------------------ www.NOPostCount.com
uhh...no playoffs. NugzFan says we suck and we lost 34 games this year and we will be worse than Denver and that Antonio McDyess doesn't live in Houston and that Denver is better than we are and everybody wants to play in Denver and we may as well give up and Steve would be the 3rd string pg in Denver. ------------------ "Only Hakeem Olajuwon is a better athlete." Dick Versace, when referring to Antonio McDyess before the draft.
Wow. After reading that cab, I can honestly say that I agree 100% with everything you said. Going from your list, I see 7-4 virtually as givens. I don't think there will be to many worrying injuries, especially to key players. Francis missed what 1 or 2 games due to injury last season? I don't know how many Anderson, Mobs or Cato missed, but they didn't seem to miss many (if any) due to injury. If all reports are true and Cato has been working hard during the off-season, then I see 1 as being no problem, and as a result 3 looks like it may not be a problem either. I have always liked Taylors game, and think that as a Clipper he didn't play to the level that he could. As a Rocket I am optimistic that he can reach the level that he knows he can play at. If things do fall in place like you said, then yes we should be in for a very fun and rewarding season. ------------------ "He fouled me every single time I was over the rim ... I'm going to lift weights tomorrow and get my legs stronger so next time I play him I'll put it on his head five times." - Steve Franchise
Great post. The only disagreement I have is with your statement on Collier. I have seen him before playing at Georgia Tech, and he does have an NBA future. Two games at a Revue where he's nowhere near 100% due to back spasms does not make him a poor player and a wasted pick. He will take some time, and he never will be a big time starter. But he'll be a very solid and versatile big man off the bench that can help pull opposing centers out of the lane, and can also rebound very well. (led the ACC) I know he hasn't been impressive yet, but don't lose faith. That's all I have to say on that matter. Other than that, I agree 100%. Great post Cab. ------------------ Looking for next year's Dan Langhi? Draftsource.net ClutchTown.com http://www.noarena.net
I agree with The Cat. I think you'll be surprised. One addendum to Cat's post, Collier has been reported as having lost some of the "baby fat" he was carrying at the revue as well as being recovered from his injuries. Any word out of the camp as to how Cato has been performing? Much of the reports have been on Taylor, Langhi, Collier and Dream. I've yet to hear how Cato has faired. I guess we'll hear plenty after Tuesday. ------------------ "I'd like to be going down Fourth Avenue in a parade with all the graffiti coming down on our heads." -- Patrick Ewing, showing off that Georgetown edumacation.
"Great post TCab." (baaaaaa baaaa) I think we have the talent to be a lower-mid seed. But..... Is this "realistic"? I don't think we're a "maturing" team. I think we're still in the "learning" or "growing" or "developing" stage. Our star is in going into his 2nd NBA season. Our new frontcourt star is playing his first year here. Cato will never mature. Our best hope at SF is a skinny rookie (who I have high hopes for). I could go on. If I remember correctly the Rockets beat four teams with an average win total of 60 wins per team that year. I doubt we'll see three 60-win teams come out of the West this year. Well, we both agree on Walt, but who said Langhi isn't "ready"? From all the reports I've heard (Clutch, Revue, and coach Larry Smith) Langhi has impressed everyone. Even Steve Francis said on the news last night that Langhi was the most athletic guy on the team (may have been an exaggeration, but you get the point). I think he will "flourish" on this year's team a little more than you think. Again, we agree. So, how is his condition going to be any worse than last season when in 23.8 mpg he averaged: 10.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg (led the team), 0.93 spg, & 1.59 bpg? No, I don't expect him to have an all-star year, but I don't see why his production would actually go "down". What makes you think Mobes and Anderson's offensive output will remain the same (or slightly lower) with the addition of Mo Taylor, your miraculous prediction of Cato "breaking out", and Francis upping his scoring average by 4 points? I just don't see the objectivity here. Olajuwon will score 4 fewer points than his worst season ever, but Francis will all of the sudden become the NBA's best playmaker and a great defender? Man, I sure hope Francis does, but that is a lot to expect out of a second year point guard. I see his scoring going up too. But, unless there are some serious injuries to our other scorers, I don't see how he'll get the shots, as our point guard, to score more than 20 ppg (at the most). I do expect his assist to go up, maybe even more than 8 apg, but not much more. With all the talk about him working on his defense, I hope his steals go up, along with his overall defensive play. But, I expect his rebounds to fall slightly, only because we'll have more rebounders on the team this year. Again with the high expectations. Taylor will be playing with a new team in a new arena under a new system. I expect his scoring to improve slightly, it has every year. But, a 3 point jump is a lot to ask. I'd be happy with 18 ppg. Even 17 ppg wouldn't be bad (all things considered), if he shot better from the floor than he has in the past. If Cato puts together 82 performances like he had last pre-season then I'll eat all four of my cats raw. That has the same likelihood of happening as the Earth being eaten by a giant termite. But, you go on to say you only expect him to improve his scoring by 1.3/gm, his blocks by 1.09/gm, and his rebounding by 4.0/gm. The only drastic change then will be his rebounding, which I do not think is his strong suit. I can only hope your predictions come true, but I don't have very much faith that they will. I fully expect this year's team to have a better record than last year's. And, I think there's a good chance of making the playoffs, but I sure hope not all Rocket fans have the same expectations you do for the upcoming season..... ------------------ I have a dream.........his name's Hakeem. DREAMer's Rocket Page
Good post. I agree all the way. Cato is the most important because with Cato, comes defense. Mo Taylor seems to be a VERY good pickup. His hustle during training camp(and also the fact that he got pissed at himself whenever he missed a jumper) shows that he's a good competitor. And the coaching staff as well as the players all seem to like him. I hope Francis DOES increase his stats that much, but it's also possible that he won't focus that much on scoring, and more on passing. With the addition of MO Taylor, and the improvement of everybody else, Francis will have to give the ball up a lot. However if we have 2 20 point scorers (Mo and Steve) and 2 15 point scorers (Cat and Andy) and two 10 point scorers (cato and Walt) and contributions from Dream and Langhi and IF this is coupled with greatly improved defense then playoff could be possibly.-SMEG What about Kenny Thomas? I think that Kenny can very well score at least 10 points a game. He showed a lot of promise last year, and if he has worked on his game and gotten stronger, then he should be pretty good. Especially, since he's coming off the bench... there will be less competition for him, and I think that Kenny can bang with nearly every otha team's backup power forward(except portland). I think that nearly all of the things Cabbage mentioned WILL fall into place. The only worries I have is Defense and Cato. With Cato, comes defense. I think Cato's ready this year physically... I hope he's mentally up to it too. ------------------ president of the dan langhi fan club.
Cab Nice to hear from you again. Pretty decent stab at the season outlook and the possible pitfalls of same. I agree with most of what you wrote. The key still to our success this year is multi-faceted as you pointed out. But I think everyone still misses the most important feature of what will make us successful this year. This team is far ahead of anyone's (League, Opponents and Rocket's ) expectations. As an individual, each of the players you mentioned have something to offer. Guys like Francis, Mobes, MoTay, Anderson all have talents both obvious and hidden(potential). But, as a team these guys cook! As a team these guys carry a much team talent sum than their individual totals. We are all missing some very important leaps in maturity from this young team. It may have been more obvious late last year. 1. These guys gelled and blended together very,very well toward the end of last season. The passes were accurate. The timing was crisp. Several of them saw it as a "coming all together, (finally)" sort of thing. You know how I hate excuses, but Cato has said that many times since the end of the year. He felt he was a rookie all over again and went from sporadic minutes with Portland and had to learn the starters role. The fact that he (and his Mom) saw his play as a failure in intensity should help his concentration and efforts this year. Francis was learning to be a general. He felt he was banged around a lot last year and has beefed up too. Mobes' unsettled contract thing is gomne away, and let me tell you staright up he LOVES playing here. Walt ... well, Walt is still the question mark for me. He showed in the last fifiteen games he can give us a game like we expected him to. But, even a miserly twenty percent improvemnet over his initial and mid season efforts would be bountiful. If Mo consistently plays the game everyone says he has ... that single improvement at that position alone, would make me predict a strong bid for the eighth playoff spot. 2. I think this young talented team also proved that they do not need Hakeem to win. They do not need a superstar in Barkley tio win. They will need Hakeem's presence for brief periods and hopefully he will be on the court for longer than "brief" periods. But the point is they do not need him to win anymore. This team will arrive to the new season "practice sloppy" to be sure, just like all the other teams. But I expect them to be ahead of the curve, a lot sooner this season. Making a mark early. I expect they will threaten the defenses of everyteam they play. They will surprise many premiere teams. And more importantly they will win more close games than last year. For those reasons alone I see them in the playoffs at a surprising seven or better slot.
you do realize i never said this, right? i think you guys just WANT to hate me. funny how im the one getting bashed when its rocket fans who insult the nuggets non stop and not i who insults the rockets (unless you consider a non-rocket fan thinking you wont win 50 an insult?). oh well...later rocket fans. (oooh post 100! what do i win?)
I didn't outright say we would finish 4th in the West. Those are not my expectations. I only stated that if everything falls into place, we could crack the top-4, but I am not expecting it. From an optimistic standpoint, I would like to believe we are a maturing team judging from last season's breakout. Taylor is a big question mark, but other than him I feel we have most of the peices together. You mention "our best hope at small forward" to be "a skinny rookie", and I completely agree, but would you not agree with me that as he gains experience this season he is at the same time maturing? As for Cato, I guess you feel as hopeless about him as I do about Collier, so I hope we're both wrong. We now only need stability and time to let the core mature together, and it seems Rudy is intent on letting that happen (no major trades this offseason). Of course not. On the contrary, I think the West is so good this year you might not see even one 60-win team. What happens when a conference is top-heavy? The few very good teams feed on the conference's very weak. That is why you saw so many 60 win teams...because the rest of the conference was just so damn bad. That is why you see a team like Chicago breaking out with 72 wins in '96; because the East was so damn pathetic, but that doesn't mean because there are more 60 win teams that the conference is tougher. Secondly, in my post, I was alluding to the regular season Rockets of '95. They had to play every team in the conference, not just the titans. I am sure you agree with me that from top-to-bottom, the western conference is much better now than it was in '95. The MVP David Robinson? Try Robinson alongside Tim Duncan, with Derek Anderson. Shaq, Kobe, and Rider. If you'll remember, the 3 seeded Suns were carried by Kevin Johnson that year, with a bruised up, ailing Barkley. The Suns of today will probably only finish 4th or 5th, but they could probably give that team a run for their money with Kidd, Hardaway, CRob, Rogers, Marion, and a returning Googs. Let's not forget Portland with Pippen, Kemp, and Wallace. Then look at the bottom of the conference, where you have the Wolves of today with one of the best duos in basketball (Garnett-Brandon), and talented teams like Dallas and Houston clawing for low seeds. There's a lot between impressing everyone in training camp and actually stepping out on the floor and being a big time contributor. Langhi being the most athletic player on the team doesn't mean squat. Garnett was pretty damn athletic in his rookie season, but even he came off the bench. Kobe Bryant was pretty athletic (won the dunk contest) in his freshman season, and I'm sure he impressed everyone, but he came off the bench. I don't think Langhi is ready to become the full-time starter until he fills out some more. Maybe because last year he was 37, and this year he is 38. Look, as much as we may want to believe it, Hakeem isn't going to suddenly improve his production as he gets older. Old age usually has the opposite effect. Have you considered that maybe there is no reason for him to compete? I'm not saying that as a knock to him, as it is only human nature. He's won his two rings, he has a very minimized role on this team, and the team doesn't have much of a shot at the title. Why do you think he will suddenly become a key contributor yelling, "I want to win another championship before I retire!" I don't really understand what you're asking me here. Are you saying that they will produce less because of the addition of Taylor and the breakout of Francis, or are you asking me why I have them remaining the same while everyone else improves? If it's the former, then I agree, I should have put them down for lower averages. If it's the latter, then I will tell you that certain players have certain MAX capabilities, and I believe that offensively, Mobley and Anderson have relatively reached their respective MAX capabilities. As for Cato, he didn't do much last season, so he has a long way before he can fulfill his potential. Then you have Francis, and I don't think I need an explanation as to why he still has the ability to get much better. Why Olajuwon will be worse, but Francis will be that much better? You're refusing to accept that Olajuwon is 38 and with each season falling off drastically, while Francis is 23 and making great strides through each campaign. Superstars generally breakout in their 3rd season, as Jordan averaged 38.0ppg and many other examples. Carter improved greatly from his rookie to sophomore season, and I think Francis has that same ability. If not this year, his big year will be his 3rd season. Francis scored 18ppg last season off of .440% shooting. I would hope he could improve that percentage up a few points to where he wouldn't need the extra shots. Also, he has added more muscle mass and that should help while driving to the basket and drawing contact, putting him at the free throw line. Fair enough. However, in a best case scenario, I was envisioning a high-powered fast breaking offense leading to many easy baskets for Taylor and Cato. We have the potential for great offensive flexibility this season. We don't need Cato to score, rather to rebound and block shots. Do keep in mind that these are "best case scenario" expectations. In all probability, only a few of these will go down as expected. Only if we hit jackpot will all factors turn gold.
3. Utah (60) vs. 6. Houston - Round 1 2. Phoenix (59) vs. 6. Houston - Round 2 1. San Antonio (62) vs. 6. Houston - WC Finals Orlando (57) vs. Houston - Finals First team in history to eliminate 4 teams with 50 or more wins. An average of 59.5 wins among those 4 teams. Wow! Just think how many wins the Rockets could have had if they started the season with Clyde and were injury free. 72 maybe? hmmmm... ------------------ "I'd like to be going down Fourth Avenue in a parade with all the graffiti coming down on our heads." -- Patrick Ewing, showing off that Georgetown edumacation.
I have to say, I disagree with almost all of thecabbage's points! Puts me in the minority I suppose, but there it is. (one example: while cat and shandon make the 2 our deepest position, certainly PG is still our strongest position whenever Franchise laces them up). I do agree with one point: we need strong interior defense. Mo Taylor is our 4, and he doesn't provide that - so this has to come out of the center position. But if point #1 to our success this season is to have Cato return to his triple-double form of last year's preseason; well then we're sunk. The preseason was Cato's season. He was playing to get the big contract. He got it. Call me a cynic, but I think Cato's lacks the hunger he needs to live up to his vast potential. I do think that he's going to put up some #s, and given the lack of quality at the 5 spot in this league he's beter than half the other starters at his position without even trying. But that shiznit he was doing before he got the fat new deal - that was all-world caliber. I can see Cato providing 10, 7.5, and 3 for us this season. But he could do so much more... ------------------
. Langhi being the most athletic player on the team doesn't mean squat. Garnett was pretty damn athletic in his rookie season, but even he came off the bench. Kobe Bryant was pretty athletic (won the dunk contest) in his freshman season, and I'm sure he impressed everyone, but he came off the bench. I don't think Langhi is ready to become the full-time starter until he fills out some more.-CABBAGE I agree that bein athletic isnt everything, but Langhi also has a much better shot than Kobe or Garnett did in their rookie years(as well as now). And that makes Langhi much more ready to contribute. Langhi prolly wont win a 6th man of the year award, but he will do his job. I could very well see him averaging around 8 pts. a game. And that's not bad at all considering all the other weapons we got on the bench. ------------------ president of the dan langhi fan club.
The significance of Langhi being athletic is that the knock many had of him, was that he was a Bullard clone (ie: can shoot lights out, but don't think of letting him dribble, or slash to the whole, or moving around too much.) Let's not call Collier a bust yet. It certainly looks bleak, when terms like "project" are being used about the #15 pick (who I thought happened to be fairly polished), but I think/hope he can be a solid contributor, such as a 1st or 2nd big man off the bench (not counting Hakeem or Cato, whenever that gets resolved.) I just heard a short Mobley interview, basically said the team's excited, him and Steve worked out together ALL summer, and he's looking forward to the season. They also mentioned Olajuwon experienced NO asthma problems during the workouts. Is anyone else noticing all the people that seem to be going down around the league (Iverson, Houston, Rice, etc.) but we had no injuries at all? That's definitely a good sign. ------------------ The Serious Police are watching. Follow the rules or be assimilated. Shandon is underrated.
I agree Kenny can play but unless he plays some 3 or Mo plays some 5 where will he get his minutes. If Mo is going to score somewhere near 20ppg he will be playing a lot of minutes and hence not leaving much for Kenny. Kenny deserves the minutes and could easily score 10 ppg but if Mo is hot then it will be a struggle. ------------------ www.NOPostCount.com
Midway through last season, I had hopes that Thomas would work on his conditioning over the summer, replacing his abundant "baby fat" with muscle. I think with his high post abilities, he could have made a nice Corliss Williamson type small forward. After reading the reports, it doesn't seem like he did much weight training in the offseason, and I don't know what his role is on this team. He definitely has skills, but is too small to play the power forward and too much a defensive reliability. Putting him behind Taylor is redundant because they are both offensive players with little defense. We need a defender up front to stand any chance in the west.
AHEM.... I would like to publically apologize for calling someone down on an incorrect stat and then giving an incorrect counter-stat.... I will forever live in shame..... ------------------ "There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and STATISTICS..." - Mark Twain -
quote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "the western conference will be an absolute bloodbath this season. To illustrate, take the 1995 Houston Rockets. We had, unarguably, the best player in the NBA that year but we limped into the playoffs as the 6th seed in a much weaker conference (as compared to '00)." "Then factor in that the 2000 western conference is much tougher than the one in '95." -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If I remember correctly the Rockets beat four teams with an average win total of 60 wins per team that year. I doubt we'll see three 60-win teams come out of the West this year. Actually the Spurs won 60 games that year, and they had the best record in the league. But they did play 3 of the top 4 seeds in the West if that's what you mean. (sans Seattle) ------------------ "There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and STATISTICS..." - Mark Twain -
