He's just too young to know. If he turns out to be Shane Reynolds both the organization and fans should be very happy.
We might be arguing the same point, just from different directions. Based on your definition, I can see Lyles being that guy. 15-18 wins (provided the team improves in the next couple of seasons), tons of innings, a guy you can count on. If that makes him an 'ace'...so be it. He won't be seen as an 'ace' around the league because he doesn't throw 97 and strike a ton of guys out. Maybe his velocity improves as he gets older, but if it doesn't he can still be effective. When I think of an 'ace', I think Halladay, Lincecum, etc.
if you're referring to my post, I had no intention of comparing the two. i was *only* responding to the notion that "Ace" means exclusively "flamethrowing strikeout machine". disagree with that notion; Maddux being chief example.
really now? how hard does Halladay throw? How about Chris Carpenter? In Zambrano's heyday, how hard was fastball? thanks.
I wasnt comparing lyles to maddux based off how hard he throws. As i also stated in the post lyles has reportedly been clocked at 96 before. I think he in the next two years or so we will see his fastball go up a few ticks to sitting at 92 or 93 which is definitely in ace territory if he can control it and it still has as much movement. I was comparing him to maddux based off the fact that he seems to be a very cerebral pitcher and has poise beyond his years. Yes i know maddux was one in 1000 and thats why i would be absolutely shocked if lyles was anywhere near as dominant but i wouldnt sell him short just yet. I dont think we have truly seen the best of lyles stuff yet. He is only 20 years old and could easily add pitches or speed to his repitiore.
If you are the same OremLK from TCB, it's great to see you around these parts. For anybody that doesn't visit TCB, OremLK is a very knowledgeable Astros/baseball fan. Hopefully he can post here more often.
Every report I read entering this year had Lyles pegged as a #2/#3 type. Despite his gaudy numbers, the first sentence in literally every report I read on him said that he wasn't going to project those awesome minor league numbers to the majors. I don't see why that would change. I think his arbitrary ranking as "#1 prospect" in the system more has to do with a very low potential for total failure. Lots of the high ceiling guys you see on those lists are also very raw and may never even play one day in the majors.
How about this? There are two types of legitimate aces in baseball. The power pitcher. Examples include Felix Hernandez, Stephen Strasburg, Josh Johnson, Justin Verlander, Josh Beckett, Tommy Hanson. This pitcher's out pitch is a 95+ mph fastball. These guys are your prototypical aces. Their careers are generally shorter, as not many pitchers can throw 97 into their late 30's.. Nolan Ryan not withstanding. The cerebral pitcher. Examples include Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, James Shields(this year), Greg Maddux (circa '95). Some of these guys can reach back and chuck it close to 95.. but that's not their game. Each pitch they throw has a purpose. They have a 4+ pitch arsenal that they feel confident throwing no matter the count. There game is control and keeping the hitter guessing. Also - STRIKES. Getting ahead early and often. These pitchers often can pitch effectively until they're 40. It's much easier to project a power pitcher because their secondary pitches don't have to be as consistent as the cerebral pitchers. Everyone knew Strasburg and Felix were going to have quick success in the bigs - I don't think that can be said about Halladay? For those pitchers to achieve long term success it takes amazing focus and a moxie that not many players possess.
Regardless of how you feel about Lyles and his potential, the odds are stacked against him becoming a true ace. In all of baseball, there might be 20 aces. I think people tend to overuse the word ace. For example, Wandy Rodriguez is considered the Astros ace, but he isn't an ace. To answer the OP's question, I don't think Lyles becomes an ace. I do think he is a solid prospect, but that's it.
good thoughts, moonshot; that is exactly what I was getting at: there are plenty of examples of #1 guys who weren't power pitchers.
